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#1
01-15-2008, 04:41 PM
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And what makes Jet Setting a " bad favorite? " CT Phone Home is hopeless. 
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#2
01-15-2008, 04:44 PM
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the 6 broke well cleared and was hand ridden.. the 2 was bumped a bit but did not show me thats its a better horse right now...the 6 is hardly hopeless vs these..
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#3
01-15-2008, 04:46 PM
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#4
01-15-2008, 05:08 PM
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I won't be betting the race but took a look. I don't know if Jannlyn or the A Dutrow entries have run back and I don't know anything about the fillies the others have beat or run behind. But, at something like 4/5 to 6/5, I don't think all that much of Jet Setting:
- Broke bad in return - Off 4 months and now back in 3 weeks? 3 weeks back is a bit quick to my liking. - No work? And her work set looks a bit weak to me for a short ##. Debuted, then worked ok until she missed a work (it seems) around Oct 10. Back working end of Oct then no works for another 4-5 weeks. Then two works 17 days apart. Between works and races, she's been on the track just twice in 6 weeks. I take that as a bad sign for any horse, especially so for a lightly raced 3 yo. And now, two races in 21 days? I think there's a pretty good chance that she has problems. Assuming she's even money, I'd probably pass or try to beat her. There's not another NYFN1X going short until Feb 2. If she waited for that race and had a couple good works going into it, she'd probably be about the same price she'll be tomorrow and in that spot, I could trust her at a short number easier. Good luck.
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#5
01-16-2008, 01:39 PM
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__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#6
01-15-2008, 05:27 PM
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Some of us are reasonably successful supplementing our knowledge of PP's with other methods. BTW seems to be very influenced by trip handicapping....Hooves is more of a home run typeof swinger... I agree with the methodology about horizontals that playing completely against a favorite is a likely heart breaker so I wont belabor that. But my own method......1) establish a likely peformance necessary too win a race with PP's 2) Establish horses likely style (assuming a change isn't likely...at times faulty but useful if holds) 3) Suggest winners based based on race shape.....speed holding,track with closing advantage etc.. 4) Read sheets and other intrarace tools for comparasions for a winner 5) Assess for trainer angles or horses for courses....less so "track bias" as happens less than is reported.. If a single horse fits 3 or more..then designate horse deserving favorite....if each catagory predicts a different winner respect the odds and spread out for P3's and 4's looking for a price. But in the words of the late great Jimmy V.......It's all about survive and advance!!! It aint rocket science but IMO you need a broad brush here as nothing is for every race on every day...
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#7
01-15-2008, 05:45 PM
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swing for the fences... lol.. i use all the above.. drf tgh video replays..like i said not sold on the 7 and think the 2 can be beat..6/2/1 in that leg is what i would use..
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#8
01-15-2008, 05:53 PM
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The only reason Jet Setting is 9/5 is Assmussen/Elliot connections, IMO
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#9
01-15-2008, 06:53 PM
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I unrespectfully disagree......completely.
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#10
01-15-2008, 07:17 PM
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I like her but not at 9/5, but i guess we'll see tomorrow
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