capping 101..the "SPOCK HORSE"

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you think Jet Setting is vulnerable then you really need to watch her last race over again. She ran extremely well.

I wonder why this isn't obvious.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I wonder why this isn't obvious.

It's obvious if you do your work.

There's a handicapping method which I just don't understand......see who the favorite is and bet against it. I see people doing this, in a confused attempt to be a wiseguy, and it makes no sense whatsoever. None. And, it's obviously a recipe for disaster.

This 5th race is a great example of a cut and dried situation, and it is more important in this case with a carryover, in that there are pretty much only two horses that can win, with the Jerkens horse a distant third possibility that maybe you back up with if you spend enough. Nobody else can be even remotely reasonably expected to win and your money has to be better spent elsewhere.

[Scav]

I admit I do it all the time, I try and find any reason to not play the favorite. It is moronic and stupid.

How are we even compared CT Phone Home and Jet Setting? CT ran some suck ups and finally broke through on a sloppy/sealed track (where her breeding should love it) and the race had a bunch of rats in it, while Jet Setting last race got a putrid trip, broke 3 lengths slow and 5w the whole friggin time and makes a good middle move to flatten out. Now she gets moved to the inside and could get a great pocket trip. As long as Elliot doesn't get her in trouble, I don't see her losing (unless he gets all CC Lopez on the horse and guns her from the gate)

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

im thinking the 6 is in better shape than the other 2/7 ..just on last works alone........and yes ill try to beat a bad fav any time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

im thinking the 6 is in better shape than the other 2/7 ..just on last works alone........and yes ill try to beat a bad fav any time.

And what makes Jet Setting a " bad favorite? "

CT Phone Home is hopeless.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the 6 broke well cleared and was hand ridden.. the 2 was bumped a bit but did not show me thats its a better horse right now...the 6 is hardly hopeless vs these..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And what makes Jet Setting a " bad favorite? "

CT Phone Home is hopeless.

horses that break bad usually do it again ...im just not sold that these two are world beaters..like i said we will see weds..

[SentToStud]

I won't be betting the race but took a look. I don't know if Jannlyn or the A Dutrow entries have run back and I don't know anything about the fillies the others have beat or run behind. But, at something like 4/5 to 6/5, I don't think all that much of Jet Setting:
- Broke bad in return
- Off 4 months and now back in 3 weeks? 3 weeks back is a bit quick to my liking.
- No work? And her work set looks a bit weak to me for a short ##. Debuted, then worked ok until she missed a work (it seems) around Oct 10. Back working end of Oct then no works for another 4-5 weeks. Then two works 17 days apart.

Between works and races, she's been on the track just twice in 6 weeks. I take that as a bad sign for any horse, especially so for a lightly raced 3 yo. And now, two races in 21 days?

I think there's a pretty good chance that she has problems.

Assuming she's even money, I'd probably pass or try to beat her. There's not another NYFN1X going short until Feb 2. If she waited for that race and had a couple good works going into it, she'd probably be about the same price she'll be tomorrow and in that spot, I could trust her at a short number easier.

Good luck.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

horses that break bad usually do it again ...im just not sold that these two are world beaters..like i said we will see weds..

Right on. Didnt break well today.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And what makes Jet Setting a " bad favorite? "

CT Phone Home is hopeless.

Not to a 'capper who takes patterns as very important. CT paired up numbers and moved forward last time. It is logical to expect a forward move again whether it will be enough of a move is debatable...so hopeless is a bit of a stretch with these.

Some of us are reasonably successful supplementing our knowledge of PP's with other methods. BTW seems to be very influenced by trip handicapping....Hooves is more of a home run typeof swinger...

I agree with the methodology about horizontals that playing completely against a favorite is a likely heart breaker so I wont belabor that.

But my own method......1) establish a likely peformance necessary too win a race with PP's 2) Establish horses likely style (assuming a change isn't likely...at times faulty but useful if holds) 3) Suggest winners based based on race shape.....speed holding,track with closing advantage etc.. 4) Read sheets and other intrarace tools for comparasions for a winner 5) Assess for trainer angles or horses for courses....less so "track bias" as happens less than is reported..

If a single horse fits 3 or more..then designate horse deserving favorite....if each catagory predicts a different winner respect the odds and spread out for P3's and 4's looking for a price.

But in the words of the late great Jimmy V.......It's all about survive and advance!!!

It aint rocket science but IMO you need a broad brush here as nothing is for every race on every day...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

swing for the fences... lol.. i use all the above.. drf tgh video replays..like i said not sold on the 7 and think the 2 can be beat..6/2/1 in that leg is what i would use..

[Dunbar]

Good discussion!

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's obvious if you do your work.

There's a handicapping method which I just don't understand......see who the favorite is and bet against it. I see people doing this, in a confused attempt to be a wiseguy, and it makes no sense whatsoever. None. And, it's obviously a recipe for disaster.

This 5th race is a great example of a cut and dried situation, and it is more important in this case with a carryover, in that there are pretty much only two horses that can win, with the Jerkens horse a distant third possibility that maybe you back up with if you spend enough. Nobody else can be even remotely reasonably expected to win and your money has to be better spent elsewhere.

I agree that some people seem to bet to beat the favorite all the time, and sometimes it just doesn't make sense. Not all favorites are created equally.
I just think in this particular case, if people "do their work" the Jerkens horse looks to me like about a 7/2 shot here. I know you disagree, but if she goes off at 5/1 or higher, I think she might be the way to go.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's obvious if you do your work.

There's a handicapping method which I just don't understand......see who the favorite is and bet against it. I see people doing this, in a confused attempt to be a wiseguy, and it makes no sense whatsoever. None. And, it's obviously a recipe for disaster.

This 5th race is a great example of a cut and dried situation, and it is more important in this case with a carryover, in that there are pretty much only two horses that can win, with the Jerkens horse a distant third possibility that maybe you back up with if you spend enough. Nobody else can be even remotely reasonably expected to win and your money has to be better spent elsewhere.

The "see who the favorite is and bet against it" works for a single race approach- if the favorite wins, shrug the shoulders and turn the page- but from a multirace wagering perspective the MOST important thing to me is whether I can stand alone with him (or two). I'm not sure if they're thinking in the same vein as you are here (whether to stand alone with her.)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The "see who the favorite is and bet against it" works for a single race approach- if the favorite wins, shrug the shoulders and turn the page- but from a multirace wagering perspective the MOST important thing to me is whether I can stand alone with him (or two). I'm not sure if they're thinking in the same vein as you are here (whether to stand alone with her.)

It doesn't work period. You handicap the races and decide, relatively speaking, who's worth what. Preconceived ideas are for losers. If you don't want to take a short price, and can't find exotics to play, then you pass. Betting against any horse simply because it is the favorite isn't a rational decision.

[blackthroatedwind]

The 5th race sets up very well on paper for Anlyn, especially if Play N Hooky goes. Her last race was weak, with an overall very good trip, but she could suck up if there is a substantial speed duel. However, in order for that to happen, I Promise has to fail to show up and Jet Setting has to get buried in a duel. All not impossible but a lot to ask for at a mediocre price.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 5th race sets up very well on paper for Anlyn, especially if Play N Hooky goes. Her last race was weak, with an overall very good trip, but she could suck up if there is a substantial speed duel. However, in order for that to happen, I Promise has to fail to show up and Jet Setting has to get buried in a duel. All not impossible but a lot to ask for at a mediocre price.

That is what I've been trying to say!
I think she has a decent shot. Are the other two more likely winners? Yes, of course. I am not "trying to beat" either of them. If I am seriously going to play a race, I take a lot of time and try to set my own line for the horses. I never decide if I am going to play a race for certain until about 10 minutes before the race (unless it is the Kentucky Derby or something like that). In general, if a horse I liked seems like a good value 10 minutes out, I'll play it. If not, I'll skip the race entirely.
As I said before, I think Anlyn here is about a 7/2 shot. If she goes off at 3/1, 7/2, or something like that, I wouldn't play her. If they send her off at 6/1 or more I probably would (if I was playing at all today....which I'm not).

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally I don't think 7-2 is a good price but in an odd way it might be a good sign. In order for her to be 7-2, or less, I Promise will have to not be getting bet they way she should be and, in general, horses like I Promise, especially from that barn, that don't take the money they should end up underperforming. So, if I Promise is a lukewarm 5-2, or higher, and Anlyn is seemingly overbet, then I guess her chances are better than they seem on paper.

But, she still has to beat Jet Setting, which is not going to be easy. But, I guess that's why she's the proverbial " third likeliest winner. "

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It doesn't work period. You handicap the races and decide, relatively speaking, who's worth what. Preconceived ideas are for losers. If you don't want to take a short price, and can't find exotics to play, then you pass. Betting against any horse simply because it is the favorite isn't a rational decision.

This is where most people (myself included) have the most trouble. The compulsive "action" wagers destroy one's bankroll.

[Dunbar]

What the heck. Here's my line for the race:

PP# Horse Odds (to one, unless otherwise shown)
1 Anlyn, 10
2 JetSetting, 1
3 PlayNHooky, 150
4 Call Me Karakorum, 300
5 Ms Rabbits, 700
6 C.T.PhoneHome, 7
7 I Promise, 7-2
8 Slipstone, 25

--Dunbar