Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm not trying to use that race as a blanket way to say that I think that 7 furlong races are the best indicator of 10 furlong races in the future.

It was just another race that shows me that the horse has no chance of lasting at ten furlongs given her style and her (lack of) stamina. That makes three in a row that lead to that conclusion for most people watching closely.

I don't know how that makes three in a row though. After the Frizette, people said she was walking home and would get caught the next time but the next time, with another turn and added distance, she won by more. People wanted to say it was because of the track and nobody else liking it but to me, that doesn't really make sense. How come only one horse liked it? Also, one of the horses that she had beaten in the Frizette, Backseat Rhythm, came back to hit the board in the BC too so it appeared she was ok with the track. This race yesterday has no bearing on what she'll do later. It was a sprint, she was trained for a sprint and she ran fast. If one was to look at yesterday's race, they would conclude that she couldn't last past 7f but we know that's not true because she's already won grade ones at 8f and 8.5f.

Who knows how far she will run? I don't know. I'm not saying she will run 10f. But I haven't seen any reason to believe yet that many others have a better chance of running it better than her. But then again, maybe I haven't been watching closely or just don't know what I'm looking at. We'll see.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't know how that makes three in a row though. After the Frizette, people said she was walking home and would get caught the next time but the next time, with another turn and added distance, she won by more. People wanted to say it was because of the track and nobody else liking it but to me, that doesn't really make sense. How come only one horse liked it? Also, one of the horses that she had beaten in the Frizette, Backseat Rhythm, came back to hit the board in the BC too so it appeared she was ok with the track. This race yesterday has no bearing on what she'll do later. It was a sprint, she was trained for a sprint and she ran fast. If one was to look at yesterday's race, they would conclude that she couldn't last past 7f but we know that's not true because she's already won grade ones at 8f and 8.5f.

Who knows how far she will run? I don't know. I'm not saying she will run 10f. But I haven't seen any reason to believe yet that many others have a better chance of running it better than her. But then again, maybe I haven't been watching closely or just don't know what I'm looking at. We'll see.

Not to belabor it -- but to me, it's the way she's coming home. Sure, nobody got close to her in the Frizette, and nobody got close to her in the BCJF. But she certainly appeared to get leg-weary far too early in the stretch of both races to be able to hang on at a distance like 10 furlongs.

The fact that Backseat Rhythm can't catch her at 1 1/16 when she's falling apart in the late stages isn't exactly a fiery endorsement of her potential to stretch out further, let alone against males.

There is nothing to suggest she can rate. There is nothing to suggest she can back a pace up. Factor those two negatives with her inability to stride out impressively going just 1 1/16, and throw 19 other horses behind her at the three-eighths -- someone catches her.

Not only someone, but likely about 15 someones.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Not to belabor it -- but to me, it's the way she's coming home. Sure, nobody got close to her in the Frizette, and nobody got close to her in the BCJF. But she certainly appeared to get leg-weary far too early in the stretch of both races to be able to hang on at a distance like 10 furlongs.

The fact that Backseat Rhythm can't catch her at 1 1/16 when she's falling apart in the late stages isn't exactly a fiery endorsement of her potential to stretch out further, let alone against males.

There is nothing to suggest she can rate. There is nothing to suggest she can back a pace up. Factor those two negatives with her inability to stride out impressively going just 1 1/16, and throw 19 other horses behind her at the three-eighths -- someone catches her.

Not only someone, but likely about 15 someones.

I thought she did a very good job of rating and relaxing behind a horse in the Frizette.

[IrishofNDMan]

Golden Doc A had Indian Blessings on the ropes, and with another few feet would have won the race. If I was a big fan of Indian Blessings that would scare me a little bit.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Golden Doc A had Indian Blessings on the ropes, and with another few feet would have won the race. If I was a big fan of Indian Blessings that would scare me a little bit.

No she didn't and no she wouldn't have. If the race had been a few more feet, Indian Blessing's rider would have waited a little longer to make his run and saved a little more for the stretch. It's like the 1989 BC Classic. Everyone wanted to say that Easy Goer was closing so strongly on Sunday Silence and in another jump or two, would have passed him. Wrong. If you notice, McCarron was hand riding Sunday Silence. He knew how much he had left under him and how much he needed to have under him. He timed his move to fit the distance of the race he was riding. If the race had been 10f plus 50 yards, both riders might have waited just a little bit longer to make their moves and the results still would have been the same. Riders time their moves and trainers, good ones at least, train their horses to the conditions of the specific race they are in.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

No she didn't and no she wouldn't have. If the race had been a few more feet, Indian Blessing's rider would have waited a little longer to make his run and saved a little more for the stretch. It's like the 1989 BC Classic. Everyone wanted to say that Easy Goer was closing so strongly on Sunday Silence and in another jump or two, would have passed him. Wrong. If you notice, McCarron was hand riding Sunday Silence. He knew how much he had left under him and how much he needed to have under him. He timed his move to fit the distance of the race he was riding. If the race had been 10f plus 50 yards, both riders might have waited just a little bit longer to make their moves and the results still would have been the same. Riders time their moves and trainers, good ones at least, train their horses to the conditions of the specific race they are in.

you honestly think Gomez is that smart and knew he had just enough to win by a few inches????? You really think that he wanted it to be that close??? No way in hell.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I can't wait to come back to this thread and laugh. This reminds me of the Street Sense talk where the King was adament he had no shot in the Derby. I suppose if you throw enough s hit on the wall some will stick, but geez.

Isn't that what we all do on here? I also said that Curlin might lose the Derby but by the end of the year, there would be no doubt that he was the best 3yo. Sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong. No biggie.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Isn't that what we all do on here? I also said that Curlin might lose the Derby but by the end of the year, there would be no doubt that he was the best 3yo. Sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong. No biggie.

Don't sell yourself short! You didn't just say that Curlin might lose the Derby, you said he had no chance to win. Remember? The only horses that had a chance to win were Circular Quay and Notional.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Don't sell yourself short! You didn't just say that Curlin might lose the Derby, you said he had no chance to win. Remember? The only horses that had a chance to win were Circular Quay and Notional.

Early, I did. I believe most people's lists changed as we got further along the trail. At the point that I said Circular Quay and Notional, I'm not even sure if Curlin had even made his debut.