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#1
12-18-2007, 04:08 PM
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how about rags to riches.. she could have won.
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#2
12-18-2007, 04:14 PM
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But she wouldn't have.
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#4
12-18-2007, 04:45 PM
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Dehere was a VERY nice horse.. but he would have had no shot whatsoever at 10F
Here's that IDEAL set up he had in the Fountain of Youth... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoDOQ-pdO0A
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#6
12-18-2007, 05:10 PM
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Talk about overrated.
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#8
12-18-2007, 06:27 PM
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Even if you accept the delusion that Rockport Harbor was an exceptionally talented horse, he had exactly the wrong running style for the 2005 Kentucky Derby, and would have gotten drowned.
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#9
12-18-2007, 06:29 PM
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NT
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#10
12-18-2007, 08:46 PM
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Touch Gold
Montreal Red
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#11
12-19-2007, 03:52 PM
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You have the right race, the right odds and the first time blinkers.. but... it wasnt Montreal Red, it was Wild Escapade. Montreal Red was about 3-5 in the Hopeful that year and finished second...
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#13
12-18-2007, 10:25 PM
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#15
12-18-2007, 06:34 PM
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Add in the fact that his signature victory came over the great Galloping Grocer and I think he fails to qualify for this discussion. In an unrelated matter, he is also one of the ugliest damn horses I have seen in years.
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#16
12-18-2007, 06:42 PM
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What about Man o' War?
He probably would have slaughtered everyone mentioned. The last Preakness/Belmont winner not to have run in the Derby, I believe.
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#17
12-18-2007, 06:44 PM
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Were you too old to hold a paper route at that time?
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#19
12-18-2007, 11:36 PM
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Much like Curlin - R2R probably prefers to be outside of horses. If you look at the '07 Derby - four of the top 5 finishers raced on the rail for a significant portion of the race - only Curlin being the one who never saw it. As for the turns...I believe they were as follows Street Sense was rail - rail (1 wide, 1 wide) Hard Spun was rail - rail Curlin was 3 wide - 4 wide Imawildandcrazyguy was rail - 4 wide Sedgefield was rail - rail. Of the three rail-rail horses: Hard Spun earned his position - by setting very fast fractions and running hard the whole way. Sedgefield fell into a dream trip but did do some running to secure it. Street Sense passing 17 horses without leaving the rail and ever having a straw in his path was an act of God. Rags to Riches almost certainly would have had a wider trip than Curlin - or like Curlin, would have been compromised by the massive congestion of quitting horses in the 2-to-5 path from the 1/2 mile pole to the quarter pole. Look, I have big issues with the popular belief that one path on the turn equals one length. The reason I do is because the wide path is a preferred path to the rail most often. However - throughout the card on Derby day - I thought the rail was fairly decent .. and there was no advantage in being wide. If Curlin losses 2 lengths in ground loss to SS and HS on the 1st turn - and 3 lengths on the 2nd turn - that's 5 lengths he's spotted the top two finishers. Taking ground loss out of the equation - Curlin had two incidents that hindered him, the early trouble that Gary Stevens made a big deal about was very minor I thought - getting stuck momentarily behind a wall of tiring horses, while his chief rival got a totally unmolested run inside of him, that was a bigger deal. It's impossible to quantify Curlin's trip trouble - probably 1 or 2 lengths worth for a normal horse - but for a lightly raced horse who never even had dirt kicked in his face before in his life - that trouble is a little bigger deal. To be fair to Hard Spun - unlike Curlin and Street Sense - he actually had to work hard early - and he showed gameness having his heels clipped in the stretch and shifting out and gaining on the winner slightly in the final yards. Basically - it's impossible to say exactly how many, but Curlin gave SEVERAL lengths away to Street Sense in the Derby - and Rags To Riches was VERY likely going to be either wider than Curlin - or about as wide and caught in the big congestion outside of the quarter pole that can happen when the horses racing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th early on all back up sharply enroute to 17th, 19th, and 20th place finishes. Rags to Riches almost certainly would have been no better than 3rd in the Derby ... and could have run much worse if not rated back early.
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