late/early money...

[blackthroatedwind]

The problem with the concept of " early money " these days is absolutely pool size. Even ten years ago the first flash in NY was around $40K. Now it is often $20K and even lower in the winter. Relatively meaningless action skews the pools much more early. For instance, horses with people's names. In NY, less than 25% of the final pool is in with under 10 minutes to go because the simulcast money all comes in late. So, while perhaps there is something to be said for " early money ", it's mitigated by the changes in the tote and spread of simulcasting.

One thing to look for in NY are the sometimes crazy low exacta prices you will see sometimes, a couple times a day usually, in the early betting. This is specifically because of one bettor, a sheet player I believe, who makes $5K or more boxes right at the beginning of betting.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One thing to look for in NY are the sometimes crazy low exacta prices you will see sometimes, a couple times a day usually, in the early betting. This is specifically because of one bettor, a sheet player I believe, who makes $5K or more boxes right at the beginning of betting.

Steve Byk?

[infield_line]

I have missed scores because I ignored it, but also hit nice prices because I acted on significant drops in odds followed by a float back to close to M/L. I think this is more significant on horses where the PP's don't give you anything to be excited about. Why else is someone dumping sizeable bets on a horse that does not look like a rational contender without some insight that's not apparent in the numbers?

Of course anything can happen, but at some of the small/mid-sized tracks I think there's something to watching the tote. First flash, who knows but as the race approaches, sharp drops then floating back deserves notice IMHO

I/L

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One thing to look for in NY are the sometimes crazy low exacta prices you will see sometimes, a couple times a day usually, in the early betting. This is specifically because of one bettor, a sheet player I believe, who makes $5K or more boxes right at the beginning of betting.

[Watching toteboard go from 40-1 to 8-1]
Looney: Probably some coke deal went nuts again.

[Bobby Fischer]

I don't worry about early money, and the only thing I worry about late money for is to estimate what odds that I will get at off.

I do pay attention to the logical top 3 choices and how "dead" or "live" they are on the board.

couple of examples -

Preakness - Hard Spun was the logical "fan money" 2nd choice. However he was "cold" on the board. Curlin dominated the tote action for 2nd choice. Hard Spun was nearly in danger of drifting up to 4th choice with circular quay.
Pino runs a keiren Fallon style premature move on HS, and Curlin runs the race of a champion.


American Oaks - Robe Decollete invades from Japan. She has the form to destroy this field and is the logical favorite. Conversly Aussie invader Anamato looks to be an outsider. When the money fills the pot, local Valbenny is the favorite at 2.7-1 while Robe Decollete and Anamato share 2nd&3rd choice at 3.7-1.
Valbenny runs 2nd with Anamato 3rd, while Robe Decollete is completely out of the finish.