Show Parlay

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

btw, without looking at the PP's, I see that Hucking Hot is just a lukewarm 5-2 morning line fav in your final pick of the series. (3 other horses are 4-1 or less.) Are you sure you're not just loving the name? ;>)

--Dunbar

No, I actually like Hucking Hot to be in the top half of this field. Even though she's coming off a layoff she's proven the ability to fire first asking in the past. And on class alone, I like her 5th and 4th place finishes in the G3 Miesque and G1 Hollywood Starlet. I have no qualms giving a gallagher horse the nod coming off of layoff when they're working well. FWIW...

Jman

[Dunbar]

Okay, I just went through and added up all your individual payoffs! Pretty impressive.

I see 102 bets so far. And, amazingly enough, you have gotten back $204.30 in $2 payoffs. A 30c profit may not seem like much to get excited about, but you've overcome the 14-19% track take (and breakage takes a big toll on show bets, too). You're doing way better than most here would have predicted.

Because the payoffs on show bets are so low, a result like yours is a lot more meaningful than if someone made 102 $2 win bets. I'll be interested to see if you can stay close to even for the rest of the run.

Now the bad news. I think you are now on Round 17, not Round 16. I think you did Round 9 or 10 twice. Go back and see if you agree. (I think the horse Cruisin On ended Round 9 and Carlow ended what should have been Round 10, but you started another Round 10.)

Bottom line, if you had bet $100 on each of your horses to show, you'd have a $15 profit (50 * 0.30) instead of a $1600 loss so far. (well, actually a $1050 loss, if you count your current $650 bankroll).

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

I'll be darn... I did do Rd 9 twice!! Good catch on that one. That does make this Rd 17, not Rd 16. Honest mistake on my part.

I'll try to keep up the pace I've set so far...

And thanks for going back and tabulating all my chicken scratch... you da man Dunbar!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I see 102 bets so far. And, amazingly enough, you have gotten back $204.30 in $2 payoffs. A 30c profit may not seem like much to get excited about, but you've overcome the 14-19% track take (and breakage takes a big toll on show bets, too). You're doing way better than most here would have predicted.

Bottom line, if you had bet $100 on each of your horses to show, you'd have a $15 profit (50 * 0.30) instead of a $1600 loss so far. (well, actually a $1050 loss, if you count your current $650 bankroll).

Here's some more info on your individual bet results. When you forged $0.30 ahead (on flat $2 bets) yesterday, it was the first time you'd been ahead since your 21st bet back in May (during Round 4!). The most you were ever ahead (on $2 bets) was $2.20. The most you were ever behind (on $2 bets) was $7.70.

So if you had bet $100 to show on each of your picks through yesterday's, you would never have been more than $385 behind. That compares favorably with the -$1600 that you began Round 17 with!

While it might seem like the parlay is a good way to get a lot of action out of $100, it ends up being a much more volatile way to bet your money. On the other hand, I'll agree it's way more exciting than flat-betting $100!

--Dunbar