BC: Distaff (PP's/Odds)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

yeah, she's my most likely winner on the card and i've liked her as my bc selection since the spring. taking that into account, plus that i need her to win to win the tvg contest, and that dorf is pretty stupid, i have a bad feeling she'll run in a stupid spot like the sprint.

It won't happen from the 12 spot.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

It won't happen from the 12 spot.

looking at the geometry of the race, it seems pretty obvious that HL will be able to over and not get hung out 8 wide.

i could be wrong though. there are jockeys involved.

[Mike]

Hystericalady has a spectacular natural dirt history. The wetness won't be a problem(sire Distorted Humor, 1-1 wet record) . I'll go with her despite the post

[jms62]

Past Performance trumps Pedigree.... Here is why she won't win.

1. Poor Post position
2. Not even close to the Pace in this race. Her big win MP 48/111 not even close.
3. Her 1 1/8 race not a jaw dropper pace-wise
4. Never showed the ability to close down the stretch for a win except her 5f race at Pln

[jms62]

I'm glad I made you laugh... You can project past sprints to routes all day long, I'll take route lines when they are available. The fastest pace she stalked was 47 and change in a route and we see how that turned out. Never mind the death sentence post position.. Nor the lack of a win at 1 1/8 The pace of this race will be sub 46 and I don't see HL hanging with that for the W. But good luck with that and your other plays that day.