BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

Not criticizing him at all. I'm certainly no better at this than he or anyone else is. Just asking at what point does trusting your own handicapping ability stop and taking the word of someone else's system take over? If Tiago was running off and hiding from fields by 20 lengths and setting track records in the process of earning those 130's, that would be different. But if after watching him struggle to beat Awesome Gem and knowing what Awesome Gem is, if the number came back really high, I would take it with a grain of salt. I'd do the same thing if I watched Curlin beat Lawyer Ron in the JCGC and the number came back with a 105. The numbers are just based on one man's system of how to judge the races. Not saying that the system is good or bad but it shouldn't take the place of your own handicapping. If your handicapping tells you that you like a horse, don't let someone else tell you that you don't.

Look at the Sprint. I love Midnight Lute. Always have. But I don't like him to win the Sprint, even though by the numbers, he far and away towers over the field. I believe that after his 124 figure, the next highest in the field is a 113 from Idiot Proof. That's a huge advantage. But that advantage won't make me take what I've seen with my own eyes and play a horse that I don't like to win the race.

[Slewbopper]

If BSFs were not part of the PPs, like in the past, Midnight Lute's 124 would really not stick out. That number and Baffert working him in 9 and change wll make him the fave in the Sprint. I am going with the Idiot. Ran a full second faster than Monmouth specialist Joey P did a race earlier on the same card. And since he is a 3 yo, I think he should be improving.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

If BSFs were not part of the PPs, like in the past, Midnight Lute's 124 would really not stick out. That number and Baffert working him in 9 and change wll make him the fave in the Sprint. I am going with the Idiot. Ran a full second faster than Monmouth specialist Joey P did a race earlier on the same card. And since he is a 3 yo, I think he should be improving.

he may be improving, but the way i look at it is without that one Monmouth race Idiot Proof would not even be considered a contender, so to me there is nothing in the way of confirmation that he is good enough to win this, or that its likely he'll run back to something close to that race. I hate to pick one race out of the PP's and base everything on it, especially a weak looking GR3.
In the Ancient Title Gregs Gold was much the best and Idiot Proof was less than a length in front of Barbeque Eddie, who has only a maiden win to his credit. you may say that he didn't like the cushion track but the fact remains that the beyer from that race was better than all of his dirt beyers save for the Monmouth romp. imo he's not a win candidate.

[NoChanceToDance]

Everything is fine with Silent Kitty.

There had been rumours that all was not well with him, so i got onto a friend who works in America for Godolphin and he said all is well with him. He sat on him a few days ago and he seemed in very good form with himself.

Having said that, this is what he told me before his last start.

[NoChanceToDance]

People wanting to bet Discreet Cat for the dirt mile were given a boost today when Godolphin confirmed that Frankie Dettori wouldn't be taking the ride on him.

[SentToStud]

just 3 favorites have won the BC sprint off preps in NY. 15 BCS favorite have prepped at NY. That's 15 of 22, as there were 2 years with no NY prepped horses in the race.

on the other hand, nine BC Sprint winners total have prepped in NY.

If you take a NY chalk in the BC Sprint, you are going to pay a premium.