BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Scav

He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.

not that much...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

not that much...

Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Scav

Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.

Is anyone old enough to remember when people used to watch races and read the form and decide for themselves whether or not they wanted to include a horse in their wagering? Personally, you saw Tiago and you liked him and would have added him but because someone else's analysis tells you not to, you won't now? Sounds like you don't have much confidence in your own ability to decipher what you see.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Is anyone old enough to remember when people used to watch races and read the form and decide for themselves whether or not they wanted to include a horse in their wagering? Personally, you saw Tiago and you liked him and would have added him but because someone else's analysis tells you not to, you won't now? Sounds like you don't have much confidence in your own ability to decipher what you see.

I have plenty of confidence, matter of fact, that is a big flaw in my game because i still haven't hammered the fact in my head that you lose more then you win in this game as far as tickets. And I am not going off someone else's analysis(I refuse to listen to anyone when they give me a horse), I am going off the pattern that I am reading on trusted information, that I have SEEN improve my hits and improve my handicapping. It is no different then trusting what you see in the DRF.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have plenty of confidence, matter of fact, that is a big flaw in my game because i still haven't hammered the fact in my head that you lose more then you win in this game as far as tickets. And I am not going off someone else's analysis(I refuse to listen to anyone when they give me a horse), I am going off the pattern that I am reading on trusted information, that I have SEEN improve my hits and improve my handicapping. It is no different then trusting what you see in the DRF.

It's very different, unless you are referring to the Beyers. If you are just looking at the racing lines of the horses, you aren't looking at anyone's opinions at all. I complete understand using other sources (Beyers, TG numbers, etc) in addition to your own handicapping but it just seemed a little strange to me to read that there was a horse that you would have played but because someone's system says you shouldn't, you won't. Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

Not criticizing him at all. I'm certainly no better at this than he or anyone else is. Just asking at what point does trusting your own handicapping ability stop and taking the word of someone else's system take over? If Tiago was running off and hiding from fields by 20 lengths and setting track records in the process of earning those 130's, that would be different. But if after watching him struggle to beat Awesome Gem and knowing what Awesome Gem is, if the number came back really high, I would take it with a grain of salt. I'd do the same thing if I watched Curlin beat Lawyer Ron in the JCGC and the number came back with a 105. The numbers are just based on one man's system of how to judge the races. Not saying that the system is good or bad but it shouldn't take the place of your own handicapping. If your handicapping tells you that you like a horse, don't let someone else tell you that you don't.

Look at the Sprint. I love Midnight Lute. Always have. But I don't like him to win the Sprint, even though by the numbers, he far and away towers over the field. I believe that after his 124 figure, the next highest in the field is a 113 from Idiot Proof. That's a huge advantage. But that advantage won't make me take what I've seen with my own eyes and play a horse that I don't like to win the race.