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  #1  
Old 10-12-2007, 12:15 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Originally Posted by Benevolus
He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.
Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.
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Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #2  
Old 10-12-2007, 03:12 PM
Benevolus
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.
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Old 10-12-2007, 03:22 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benevolus
Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.
Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.
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Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #4  
Old 10-12-2007, 04:21 PM
Benevolus
 
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Originally Posted by King Glorious
Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.
Highly doubtful Nobiz will ever see the dirt again and beyers don't mean too much on grass, just who you beat. Street Sense needs the right setup, but he might get it. A 108-110 might be all that is needed in the Breeders Cup. Lawyer Ron might not fire at 10f and Curlin and Hard Spun don't seem to love Monmouth. Any Given Saturday might fire off the 115 though, especially considering he had the easy last race and he likes Monmouth. Tiago is one to watch though.

Nobiz would not pick up a check in this race. He is likely to win the race at Hollywood Park. That is why he isn't running here.
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  #5  
Old 10-12-2007, 06:26 PM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benevolus
Highly doubtful Nobiz will ever see the dirt again and beyers don't mean too much on grass, just who you beat. Street Sense needs the right setup, but he might get it. A 108-110 might be all that is needed in the Breeders Cup. Lawyer Ron might not fire at 10f and Curlin and Hard Spun don't seem to love Monmouth. Any Given Saturday might fire off the 115 though, especially considering he had the easy last race and he likes Monmouth. Tiago is one to watch though.

Nobiz would not pick up a check in this race. He is likely to win the race at Hollywood Park. That is why he isn't running here.
Street Sense, Hard Spun, AGS, Tiago, Lawyer Ron. All five can't hit the board. Should some of them skip the BC and run in the Cigar or the Clark since they may not hit the board here? U do realize that the horse that u are saying is one to watch (Tiago) just ran 106 and 103.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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  #6  
Old 10-17-2007, 12:22 PM
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Linny Linny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Street Sense, Hard Spun, AGS, Tiago, Lawyer Ron. All five can't hit the board. Should some of them skip the BC and run in the Cigar or the Clark since they may not hit the board here? U do realize that the horse that u are saying is one to watch (Tiago) just ran 106 and 103.
They cant ALL hit the board but any of them could hit the board. That said, why skip a $m race in which you have a decent shot of hitting the board in favor of a $300k race? If the mile on dirt is your thing, there's a $1 on offer the day before the Classic and none of these horses was pre entered. The fact is that very little separates the the BCC runners this year, at least on paper.

As for Nobiz, I hope he runs and does well. He was a live late 2yo and was competitive (if not outstanding) on the Derby trail. He was a decent 2nd to AGS in the Dwyer and has gone 3 for 3 on grass, while showing new maturity. Tagg is not a credit taker. He doesn't care if it was his idea or the owners to run in the BC. He wants to win races and earn money.

Maybe its because the cream of last year is retired (Bernardini) or dead (Barbaro) but the "olders" this year are sure making the 3yo's, both dirt and turf, look pretty good.
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