Barclay Tagg's comments on NoBiz

[parsixfarms]

What happened with Showing Up last year (a horse that I think would have had a huge shot in the Mile) illustrates that you often need to strike while the iron's hot. Tagg said that he didn't want to run a 3YO against his elders and would wait to his 4YO season to take a shot at the BC. Then, Showing Up gets hurt in 2007, and he misses a chance to win a Cup race in both years. It's hard enough getting a horse to a race 12 days from now, let alone 12 months from now.

I also think that at this time of year a good 3YO can certainly beat their elders. In the past few weeks, we've seen it done by Curlin, Hard Spun, Panty Raid and Idiot Proof, and the BC Mile is full of 3YO winners. War Chant, Lure, Six Perfections, Ridgewood Pearl and Miesque (the last three of whom were 3YO fillies) come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not saying that NoBiz is in their league, but the notion that we shouldn't run because he's only a 3YO makes little sense to me. (If he's just ducking the race because he knows his horse would not be competitive there, that's another story, but then don't complain that the horse is underappreciated.)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

What happened with Showing Up last year (a horse that I think would have had a huge shot in the Mile) illustrates that you often need to strike while the iron's hot. Tagg said that he didn't want to run a 3YO against his elders and would wait to his 4YO season to take a shot at the BC. Then, Showing Up gets hurt in 2007, and he misses a chance to win a Cup race in both years. It's hard enough getting a horse to a race 12 days from now, let alone 12 months from now.

I also think that at this time of year a good 3YO can certainly beat their elders. In the past few weeks, we've seen it done by Curlin, Hard Spun, Panty Raid and Idiot Proof, and the BC Mile is full of 3YO winners. War Chant, Lure, Six Perfections, Ridgewood Pearl and Miesque (the last three of whom were 3YO fillies) come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not saying that NoBiz is in their league, but the notion that we shouldn't run because he's only a 3YO makes little sense to me. (If he's just ducking the race because he knows his horse would not be competitive there, that's another story, but then don't complain that the horse is underappreciated.)

Three year old turf horse is one of the few cases that it can make some sense to skip the BC since you have the Hollywood Derby as an option. Of course it would be great to see Nobiz go in both but that is a lot to ask under the modern day "fresh horse" training practices.

[KY_Sasquash]

Tagg should run him in the Classic. The horse is coming into his own right now and he'd have a legit shot. He was too immature back in the spring and finally is maturing. If he doesnt run well he can point him towards a turf campaign next year. Winning the Hollywood derby isnt going to do much for his stallion prospects since he's by Albert the Great so missing that race wouldnt be that big of a deal.

[cmorioles]

Hard to take him seriously when he implies English Channel is the most likely winner of the Turf.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

Tagg should run him in the Classic. The horse is coming into his own right now and he'd have a legit shot.

I don't think running him in the classic would make a lot of sense. I don't think he would have a "legit shot."
As for the larger question, Tagg seems to be one of the few trainers that simply refuses to let the stupid Breeders' Cup dictate everything he is going to do with a good horse. For that I applaud him. He didn't send Funny Cide to the Juvy in '02. Showing Up last year. Now Nobiz. Unlike a lot of these other morons that treat the rest of the year like it is only some series of preps for the BC, Tagg seems to view the Breeders' Cup races as just some more G1 races. Frankly, I agree with him.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Winning a grade 1 on the turf won't do much for him as a stallion? Why not? He might be maturing, but he is obviously better on the turf.

Because he's by Albert the Great, who's by Go For Gin-not the most fashionable stallion line. If he were by Storm Cat, Street Sense, A.P. Indy, Dynaformer, Gone West etc.....then it would be a big benefit. Same thing is true for Showing Up. Yes he's obviously better on the turf, I agree, but this year's Classic is a great spot for him to take a shot back on the dirt. He'd be 20-1 and would have a great shot. I think thats why Tagg was saying if he wins the BC Mile he still wouldnt be top 3yo maybe hinting to the owner that they should take a chance in the Classic. Winning the Classic would add a alot of appeal to him as a stallion prospect.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

Because he's by Albert the Great, who's by Go For Gin-not the most fashionable stallion line. If he were by Storm Cat, Street Sense, A.P. Indy, Dynaformer, Gone West etc.....then it would be a big benefit.

So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line? I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

As a completely different point, I think most people considering the value of a sire are also smart enough to look at the dam-side of the pedigree as well. If people want Storm Cat (I know I wouldn't, but a lot of people seem to disagree) they can find it in Nobiz, since he is out of a Storm Cat mare.

[parsixfarms]

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.

Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line?

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

I agree with you about the higher ceiling.
But my point is that if you take a horse like Empire Maker, and ask the question 'would winning a G1 on turf have enhanced his original stud fee,' what is the answer? I don't think it would have made much of a difference because he was a son of a noted sire in Unbridled that had already shown flashes of talent. Therefore his original stud fee was already going to be - as we saw - extremely high.
A horse with a "lesser pedigree" like Nobiz has more to gain by continued on-track performance, because - although his ceiling is unquestionably lower than a horse like Empire Maker - he can only reach that ceiling with sustained on-track performance. He can't simply run eight times, show some talent, and then command top dollar. The only way he will generate any interest at all as a stallion is by demonstrating top on-track performances. I think being a G1 winner on turf would help him on that front.