SCORECARD: Weekend of Parity

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Was being geared down by GoGo as well...

i don't think gogo had to tell her to gear down, she did that on her own after the move entering the stretch. i laughed because Durkin said "the margin could have been much more". i highly doubt that she could have run any better. we'll have to see.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i don't think gogo had to tell her to gear down, she did that on her own after the move entering the stretch. i laughed because Durkin said "the margin could have been much more". i highly doubt that she could have run any better. we'll have to see.

A/J,

Very well could be the case. One thing is certain about Champagne/Frizette winners: they are bad BC Juvy plays if they run back..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

A/J,

One thing is certain about Champagne/Frizette winners: they are bad BC Juvy plays if they run back..

Why is that?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Why is that?

I'm wondering if it's because of the same reason I think the JCGC and the Arc are not good preps. Those races for so many years have been the major objective of 2yo's and it's often going to take a peak performance in order to win it. It's hard to return a few weeks later and repeat it. I wonder also how much the fact that the Belmont races are one-turn races compared to most of the BC Juveniles being two-turns has to do with it?

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't have rules. I handicap the races and look for horses that make sense to me. I'm obviously in the minority.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't have rules. I handicap the races and look for horses that make sense to me. I'm obviously in the minority.

I do that as well. Rules go out of the window when I think a horse is the best for a race (love Surf Cat today for example). But there have only been two horses that have won the Champagne and Juvenile and four that have won the Frizette and Juv Fillies even though quite a few of them have gone off at pretty low odds.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't have rules. I handicap the races and look for horses that make sense to me. I'm obviously in the minority.

Most people I meet are badly dressed liars. Walk it off...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Most people I meet are badly dressed liars. Walk it off...

Yes, but are they balding as well?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm wondering if it's because of the same reason I think the JCGC and the Arc are not good preps. Those races for so many years have been the major objective of 2yo's and it's often going to take a peak performance in order to win it. It's hard to return a few weeks later and repeat it. I wonder also how much the fact that the Belmont races are one-turn races compared to most of the BC Juveniles being two-turns has to do with it?

This is the point that you (and others) make all of the time that just makes absolutely no sense to me. Really good horses string together good races in a row quite often. By this logic it seems like a horse such as War Pass would be a more likely winner of the Juvy if he had run considerably slower in the Champagne and finished third.
That is completely illogical.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Why is that?

I sense that it's because of the requirements for success in a one turn mile versus the (generally run at) two-turn mile and a sixteenth.. Utterly different and on a short turnaround between the events, the horses coming out of successful Champagne-Frizettes have gone too fast early and been punchless late in BC Juvies.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I sense that it's because of the requirements for success in a one turn mile versus the (generally run at) two-turn mile and a sixteenth.. Utterly different and on a short turnaround between the events, the horses coming out of successful Champagne-Frizettes have gone too fast early and been punchless late in BC Juvies.

I'm not endorsing War Pass for the BC Juvenile, though obviously at this time he is as strong as anyone, but I think it is fair to say that he could well be at a stronger tactical advantage in the Juvie at Monmouth than he was at Belmont. It is easier to bottom a field out going two turns there than it is at Belmont.

I am loathe to bet one way speed horses, and the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate as of now is certainly a cause for pause, but tactically he may well be stronger next time. Or not.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not endorsing War Pass for the BC Juvenile, though obviously at this time he is as strong as anyone, but I think it is fair to say that he could well be at a stronger tactical advantage in the Juvie at Monmouth than he was at Belmont. It is easier to bottom a field out going two turns there than it is at Belmont.

I am loathe to bet one way speed horses, and the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate as of now is certainly a cause for pause, but tactically he may well be stronger next time. Or not.

The Monmouth factor is a GREAT point.. Although someone, may have been Hammerle, was saying this week that MTH trackmen have been working over the surface at Oceanport considerably after BC-NTRA officials voiced their concerns from the Haskell visit.

The reason I brought up the non bet-back topic harkens to researching Champagne winners BC Juvy histories after a discussion with Lansdon Robbins in reference to First Samurai. Since the advent of the BC, their have only been a couple standouts in the Juvy after winning the Champagne... Think I may still have the notes I made as a matter of fact.. I'll look for them as they were surprising.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yeah, if you disect Champagne winners that ran in the BC I think you will find they didn't necessarily underperform...at least dramatically. It feels a little like the ridiculous Juvie/Derby jinx.

I have no idea right now what the Juvenile field will look like when assembled, and the posts are drawn, and right now I tend to favor Tale of Ekati, but considering the overall ineptitude we have seen, I can't dismiss any horse because it won a big race. Who are all the hidden horses out there this year?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i don't think gogo had to tell her to gear down, she did that on her own after the move entering the stretch. i laughed because Durkin said "the margin could have been much more". i highly doubt that she could have run any better. we'll have to see.

I'm with you. They rarely can....or do.