Classic

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If I had to guess right now I'd say the following odds on the top horses:

Lawyer Ron 3/1
Curlin 7/2
Street Sense 4/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Tiago 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1

I'd say more like
Curlin 4/1
Street Sense 9/2
Lawyer Ron 5/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1
Tiago 12/1

[whodey17]

It would be hard for me to see where Lawyer Ron would be favored to win the Classic. His wins in Saratoga were nice but he beat the same field at the same distance both times.

[NoChanceToDance]

I'd probably go more along the lines of:

Curlin - 10/3
Street Sense - 4/1
Any Given Saturday - 9/2
Lawyer Ron - 15/2
Hard Spun - 8/1
Tiago - 10/1

[avance2000]

has there ever been a horse coming off of back-to-back g1 and g2 wins at ten furlongs that was as lightly regarded as student council is right now (in terms of his chance at winning the classic)?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by avance2000

has there ever been a horse coming off of back-to-back g1 and g2 wins at ten furlongs that was as lightly regarded as student council is right now (in terms of his chance at winning the classic)?

I like Student Council myself but those were pretty slow wins. Like 2:07 on the poly and 2:05 at Hawthorne, I know times don't tell the whole story. I'll still give him a look if he goes as a possible live longshot especially since he will be a total afterthought for most, but right now i'm feeling that he is a notch below some of the other. He might be a logical superfecta horse, especially in the case of a hot pace because he runs on very well with loads of stamina.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He should be. He has no shot. No Cerin or Asmussen magic can get that slowpoke to the wire first.

keep in mind hawthorne altered their main track and did some things to it after the harness meet concluded this summer and has made the track slower. also there wasnt much early lick in there and jonesboro was allowed to coast on the front end and set very easy fractions which made him finish better than he shoulda at the distance, emigh did a terrific job on him that race

[Cannon Shell]

Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.
4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...

Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.

What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.

I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.

What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.

I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).

Being a summer track, there has never been any races run at Monmouth past the 1st week of September. Since it is so close to the ocean, the water tables and tides often can be a factor in the surface.

Monmouth officials have said they expect the track to play fairly which would be directly opposite of how the dirt plays during the hot weather. So naturally you would expect them to try to avoid a speed bias. The days before may offer a hint, especially if speed is not holding.

You have to understand that if a bunch of supposedly inferior speed types win all of Breeders Cup races, Monmouth will never get another shot at a BC. Since they are using the Breeders Cup as the focal point of a long campaign to get help from the state of NJ, they are going to want as little controversy as possible.

[King Glorious]

Just watched the overhead of the Derby and the Preakness again. For some reason, I gained just a little bit more respect for what Street Sense was able to do in those races. Now, there is every possibility that he hasn't progressed in the same manner as the others have. I don't think he has. I don't see him finishing better than third.....which means Hard Spun can't be any better than fourth.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd say more like
Curlin 4/1
Street Sense 9/2
Lawyer Ron 5/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1
Tiago 12/1

I think your odds are a lot closer to reality, however even in this scenario, if there's a full field of 14, every other horse would be 25-1 or higher. More than likely one of the 6 gets overlooked and goes off at 15-1, especially if one or two go lower than 4/1.

[NoChanceToDance]

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

[Mike]

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Mike

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

Well, he is by Danehill....... need you know anymore?

His run in last year's classic was pretty good (6th) at the time, but that was when he was in great form. He is yet to win this year and after a brief spell at stud, he has looked a shadow of the horse he was as a 3yo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

As of right now, I'd say LR and Hard Spun are two best values on that board.

The way Lawyer Ron got beat was a tremendous benefit to the chances of Hard Spun.

He was pulling early and was nailed in the very late stages of the stretch run by joint futures favorite Curlin.

I think you'll see Pletcher try to train a little bit of the speed out of Lawyer Ron coming into the Classic, and I think Velazquez will do what Velazquez almost always does in this situation...which is give Hard Spun a fairly unpressured free ride on the lead, while taking the pressure off his own horse and stalking comfortably from 2nd.

While JRV would be conceding an advantage to Hard Spun, he gains by avoiding a duel with the front runner (which would surely lead to both of them being defeated) and by allowing his horse to have more in reserve late for the challenges that will come from the horses just behind him (Any Given Saturday, Curlin, and Street Sense)

Velazquez can only give Hard Spun a free ride on the lead, and place himself in the dream rating comfortably from second spot if no other horse in the race chooses to press Lawyer Ron early.

On that board, the only horse who could logically do something like that is Any Given Saturday. And you have to remember, AGS is ridden by the conservative Garret Gomez. He's trained by Lawyer Ron's trainer, which probably decreases the chances he will force the hand of LR, thus causing LR to make HS quicken. Also, Any Given Saturday has hung several times when used prematurely in past races.

If there is no unexpected cheap speed entered, and the Monmouth track is playing as speed favoring as it was for much of the summer, I look for Hard Spun and Lawyer Ron to cinch up the top two spots...it would just be a matter if LR has enough in the final furlong to wear down a dream trip Hard Spun.

If the race is run in that scenerio, it's very possible that if something is able to rally wide and finish a competitive 3rd they will have run the best race of anyone...but will have suffered a strictly circumstantial loss.

Obviously, a lot of things can change between now and race day. Some entirely hopeless speed horse could pass the Dirt Mile and run in the Classic. Or, perhaps the Monmouth track isn't the inside-speed favoring paradise it was for much of the summer.

However, right now, it still looks like the speed has this race on a platter. And Hard Spun is the fastest of the group, and is the horse who needs the lead the most (he can be pretty moderate when he doesn't get it)

Lawyer Ron is the only one on that board who could deny him the lead, but pressing the front-runner isn't his riders style, it's probably not the horses best style, and he could be swallowed late if the idiotic tactic of keeping Hard Spun honest is employed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Explain why?

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.

What we need is a few more negitive stories..like he worked to fast... or Carl scratched his head too long and it means he is concerned..some questioning media article and we can get 4-1..at that point it's back up the truck! I agree with DaHoss ..he has been pointed to this race by a trainer that knows what the hell he is doing....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Crinkle

Trash Can

And if you say "because the entries haven't been drawn yet and you don't know who is in the field" - you'll earn your post a special place in the Tard Hall of Fame, because I was responding to posted future book odds.

[miraja2]

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.