Fab strike

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Well, breaking from the inside Fab Strike gets his shot at proving you correct about being a substantial race horse.

To me, the fact that Fabulous Strike hasn't beat "Grade 1 type horses" means nothing at all.

Fact is, if he had the same dream trip as he did in those monsterous figure wins at Chuchill Downs and Mountaineer Park - he'd have decimated any top horse.

An off-the-pace type like Midnight Lute - who was SENSATIONAL winning the Forego wouldn't have had a prayer against him going six furlongs with an uncontested lead through soft fractions.

To me, the big knock on Fabulous Strike is about trips.

* He has yet to show the ability to battle through true fast fractions, take pace pressure, and run his big race.

* And I'm skeptical about how well he'd run if he's rated off of a fast pace and tries a change of tactics.

If you took all the great closing sprinters in the last fifteen years - and ran them against Fabulous Strike going six furlongs - FS would win, and probably stylishly, because he'd get no early pressure at all, and he's repeatedly shown the ability to run supersonic late fractions (often while under a full nelson) when he has things all his way through the early stages.

[Danzig]

i think they've mishandled discreet cat. he suffered a huge setback after shipping to the us the first time, laid him up for months. so, then they ship him back to dubai, and then ship him back here again?! why? how many times do they need to have problems after shipping him before they realize that he's not a good shipper?
also, they did the same with another big horse of theirs--he was a derby hope, he shipped over, was never seen on the track again--he died a few months after arriving in new york...
what are those guys doing anyway regarding shipping? they keep wanting to run a horse at home, and then come here to win the derby. yet they can't get a horse here in the right shape to do that....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To me, the fact that Fabulous Strike hasn't beat "Grade 1 type horses" means nothing at all.

Fact is, if he had the same dream trip as he did in those monsterous figure wins at Chuchill Downs and Mountaineer Park - he'd have decimated any top horse.

An off-the-pace type like Midnight Lute - who was SENSATIONAL winning the Forego wouldn't have had a prayer against him going six furlongs with an uncontested lead through soft fractions.

To me, the big knock on Fabulous Strike is about trips.

* He has yet to show the ability to battle through true fast fractions, take pace pressure, and run his big race.

* And I'm skeptical about how well he'd run if he's rated off of a fast pace and tries a change of tactics.

If you took all the great closing sprinters in the last fifteen years - and ran them against Fabulous Strike going six furlongs - FS would win, and probably stylishly, because he'd get no early pressure at all, and he's repeatedly shown the ability to run supersonic late fractions (often while under a full nelson) when he has things all his way through the early stages.

you say it doesn't matter that Fabulous Strike hasn't beaten Gr1 types, but then you say your knock on him is that he can't battle through fast fractions or rate if he has to, which are the very things he would be required to do in order to beat Gr1 types. thats why class matters.

Its no mystery that horses look unbeatable when they race against lesser company and have everything their own way.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you say it doesn't matter that Fabulous Strike hasn't beaten Gr1 types, but then you say your knock on him is that he can't battle through fast fractions or rate if he has to, which are the very things he would be required to do in order to beat Gr1 types.

No they aren't. Often times Grade 3 sprint stakes feature tougher fractions than Grade 1 sprint stakes...you get much more cheap speed in those races.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they aren't. Often times Grade 3 sprint stakes feature tougher fractions than Grade 1 sprint stakes...you get much more cheap speed in those races.

oh good god man, don't play games. If Fabulous Strike is going to win any races against the fastest sprinters in the land, Gr1, Gr2, Gr3 doesn't matter, he will most definetely have to contest a hot pace and survive, or rate just behind and pounce. When he looked so awesome at Mountaineer there was nobody in the race. Who cares how he would fare being the lone speed against a field of all closers?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

oh good god man, don't play games. If Fabulous Strike is going to win any races against the fastest sprinters in the land, Gr1, Gr2, Gr3 doesn't matter, he will most definetely have to contest a hot pace and survive

I already gave my opinion of the race, and you know you are the one playing games....and it's getting a little tiresome.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I already gave my opinion of the race, and you know you are the one playing games....and it's getting a little tiresome.

sorry, just trying to follow your logic.

you said you had two knocks on FS, I agreed and said that those are the things he'll have to do to win sprints against the best, then you said no they aren't. If they aren't then why would they be considered knocks?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agreed and said that those are the things he'll have to do to win sprints against the best, then you said no they aren't. If they aren't then why would they be considered knocks?

Because, he can lose to horses far LESS than "the best" and he can decimate "the best" if he catches them in the right spot.

First of all - let's define who "the best" horses are in this sprint division right now.

If you believe the Watchmaker Watch and the TVG sprint poll, it's Midnight Lute and Smokey Stover - as the two clear-cut consensus choices in that division.

Both of those two have been defeated at six furlongs by a Cal Bred named Sailors Sunset. Now, since Sailors Sunset has beaten both the #1 and #2 ranked horse in both polls - should he be a sprinter taken seriously? Of course not! - because the fact that he beat the best horses means NOTHING when you consider the circumstance edge he had!

In both victories he took advantage of unpressured leads and proved too elusive of a target.

Unlike last year, when the top races in the sprint division often seemed to be one moderate paced big race after another - there are many one-way speed horses in the division right now.

If you remember last year, Thor's Echo hadn't won a single race of any kind in 18 months going into the Breeders Cup Sprint - trainer Doug O' Neill wanted to run him in an allowance race at Oak Tree, but it didn't fill, so he entered him in the Ancient Title the next day where he ran 2nd at huge odds and got a big speed figure.

Thor's Echo was 15/1 in the Breeders Cup Sprint because he hadn't won in forever, was routinely beaten in cal bred races, and was a 4-year-old who had never won a Graded Stake in his life inspite of repeated tries...thus he lacked "the class" to win.

It turns out, in a race lacking much speed, his only asset, combined with a great trip was good enough for a very easy 4 length win.

You act as though Fabulous Strike will never catch top horses in a race void of one-way speed. I believe there is a very good chance he will at some point, and when he does, he will dominate.

On many occasions, horses of FAR lesser ability than FS have beaten multiple great horses of FAR greater status than any of the top horses in the sprint divison.

The moderate Angle Light (who was 3-for-20 lifetime with ZERO stakes wins not counting the Wood) beat two greats in Sham and Secretariat when he wasn't pressed on the lead. Mr. Zippity Do Dah beat greats like Gulch and Bet Twice in the same race when he wasn't pressed.

If Fabulous Strike isn't pressed, he will beat anything in his division. And if you think he will always catch fields over-flowing with speed and get pressed in top class sprint races against the divisions best horse - you are dreaming.

[dalakhani]

I think the jury is still out on this horse. In all of his losses since last june, he had acceptable excuses.

In the woody stephens, he was in the lead at the 6 furlong mark going in 108 and 4 and faded the last furlong. Hardly embarassing against the likes of too much bling and songster.

He didnt like the turf at monmouth.

He, like many others, didnt like the surface at calder.

If there is no discreet cat in this race, i would give this horse serious thought.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To me, the fact that Fabulous Strike hasn't beat "Grade 1 type horses" means nothing at all.

Fact is, if he had the same dream trip as he did in those monsterous figure wins at Chuchill Downs and Mountaineer Park - he'd have decimated any top horse.

An off-the-pace type like Midnight Lute - who was SENSATIONAL winning the Forego wouldn't have had a prayer against him going six furlongs with an uncontested lead through soft fractions.

To me, the big knock on Fabulous Strike is about trips.

* He has yet to show the ability to battle through true fast fractions, take pace pressure, and run his big race.

* And I'm skeptical about how well he'd run if he's rated off of a fast pace and tries a change of tactics.

If you took all the great closing sprinters in the last fifteen years - and ran them against Fabulous Strike going six furlongs - FS would win, and probably stylishly, because he'd get no early pressure at all, and he's repeatedly shown the ability to run supersonic late fractions (often while under a full nelson) when he has things all his way through the early stages.

But if Weigelia was in the race, Fab Strike would probably be stopping on the turn.

Fast he is. No doubt. But unless he's the lone speed, it's been worthless against good horses.

Well, he's in tomorrrow. Without going out too much on the line or divulging things you do not think you can on a message board, just how do you actually see him running tomorrow??

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

just how do you actually see him running tomorrow??

I won't be betting on him....I don't like him in tomorrow's spot.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I won't be betting on him....I don't like him in tomorrow's spot.

as well you should not.