Fab strike

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

A combination of both. I don't like Fabulous Strike's chances of getting and holding the lead here against the type of pace he's likely to encounter based on which horses are currently projected to be entered (hope that wording it that way satisfies Master BTW). I thought his fade in Florida showed more than his wins in WV and Kentucky. I also feel that if Discreet Cat is anywhere close to 100%, the race is over already.

Could it be that Fabulous Strike just didnt like the Calder surface? He wouldnt be the first horse. Smokey Stover didnt seem to care too much for it that either.

but I agree...Discreet Cat will win...and make 3/5 look like value.

[SentToStud]

I don't think you need past performances to have a negative opinion about Fabulous Strike, especially if the Vosburgh comes up looking as good as a reasonable Grade 2.

Just who has he beaten?

He went 22 2/5 cruising along at Churchill while beating the mighty Gaff and Cougar Something.

Then at Calder, he went 21 2/5 against Weigelia and folded.

He's a very fast horse with very marginal and doubtful class. I can see betting a high speed fig, cheap horse at a big price, but he's not going to be a price.

I think there's a 1/5 chance that he didn't like Calder and has an excuse. But he still hasn't shown any ability to go fast early vs the class he's going to see in his next race and be anywhere close at the end.

He's a toss for me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

[SentToStud]

That's true. Then again, if the race comes up solid (as I mentioned), it's not unreasonable to think he's a bad play at an ssumed modest number. Sure, he could end up lone speed and have a solid shot. But then he'd be a real short number and I wouldn't trust him enough.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

Yet we ALL do it ALL the time. I don't see anyone waiting until after the draw before discussing the Derby. We discuss the Derby and the merits (or lack thereof) of the potential starters all winter. We've been discussing the BC since the beginning of the summer. Should we stop that too since we don't know exactly who will show up where and what their post positions will be? It's not like I'm discounting Fabulous Strike's chances in the 2008 BC Sprint. I'm considering the likely field for a race a day before the draw. Obviously, if they draw the field and Discreet Cat and many of the other top contenders aren't entered and we end up with a field of Fabulous Strike against First Defence and Teuflesburg, I would change my opinion of his chances.

I just don't find it as silly, if u have been watching the horses on a regular basis and are familiar with them, to have an opinion on them in a race based on who they are likely to face.

[blackthroatedwind]

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic. Obviously the Derby is a different example and even then it is best to wait until the draw to make definitive opinions.

Somehow I think most of us know a lot more about the horses in the Derby, and their recent efforts, than this year's Vosburgh. Or, perhaps you can recite the running lines of every entrant in this year's Vosburgh?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic.

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

I was being nice.

I swear.