SA: 'Ribbon'; 'Leaf'; 'G-Wood'..

[letswastemoney]

Nashoba's Key FTW

[Indian Charlie]

Nk and citronnade
the two harlan's holiday fillies on the outside in the oakleaf
lewis michael in the dogwood.

[cloud_break]

Does it seem odd to anyone else that Lewis Michael is traveling to CA for $500k, and Student Council is traveling to Chi-town for $500k? Though I guess Catalano wanted to stay on the tires, but why wouldn't Cerin???

[miraja2]

A race like the Goodwood is a very tough one to handicap I think. So many of these horses are moving from the ridiculously slow Del Mar poly to the relatively unknown Santa Anita Cushion. One would presume that the new surface would play like the Hollywood Cushion, and that the form these West Coasters showed there would be the best thing to look at. But then I read where several people (including Victor Espinoza) have said that the Cushion at Santa Anita is significantly different than the surface at Hollywood.
Then you have a horse like Lewis Michael who - like most of these - is going from poly to cushion, but he is coming from the Arlington poly which is a lot different than the Del Mar poly. I know his trainer thinks Lewis Michael is the "best polytrack horse in the world" but how will that form transfer to the cushion? Also, Lewis Michael's big "G2" win in his last start came against absolutely nobody.
Like I said, it seems like a tough one to me.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Also, Lewis Michael's big "G2" win in his last start came against absolutely nobody.

You're right. He should fit right in against California's Grade I horses.




He's going to walk.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

You're right. He should fit right in against California's Grade I horses.



He's going to walk.

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

dem's fightin words.

you better check yourself.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

Tiago has the right style to win this race since Lava Man will scratch in favor of the turf race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.

I'll be cheering for Lewis Michael in this one.
I have long considered myself a mediocre midwesterner.....and we have to stick together.

[2Hot4TV]

Citronnade and David Flores will go wire to wire. Smokin Joe Talamo will get burnt in this race.

[my miss storm cat]

Good. Keep ignoring Hello Sunday everyone.
Black Mamba / Imagine
Runforthemoneybaby in the Oak Leaf although i change my mind about every 5 minutes or so.

[miraja2]

In terms of a win bet, I wouldn't take anything lower than 5/1 on any of the horses in the race. There are just too many questions to play chalk here I think.
To me Lava Man - if he goes - remains the most likely winner, but I wouldn't bet on him.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

"...THANKS BRO...."-Giacomo

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cloud_break

Does it seem odd to anyone else that Lewis Michael is traveling to CA for $500k, and Student Council is traveling to Chi-town for $500k? Though I guess Catalano wanted to stay on the tires, but why wouldn't Cerin???

Student Council already lucked up and got his grade one win. If the SA track plays more like Hollywood than Del Mar, he'd go back to being a non-factor. Instead, he can go to Chicago and face a bunch of hens and roosters for the same price and be favored. Meanwhile, Lewis Michael doesn't have his grade one yet and I'm sure his connections saw Student Council whip the field in the Pacific Classic so they are taking a chance that the track could cancel some of the main contenders out like Del Mar did. If he takes to the track, he may never get an easier chance for a grade one on the "dirt" than he would here.

[geeker2]

Man..I look for Lava Man to run huge in the Goodwin and if he wins this or runs good..I would say they send him to the BC Classic...where I think he has a legitimate chance to win...the Monmouth track should suit him just fine..you might get 10/15-1 on him..the East Coast bias should help his odds...he could be worth a ducat

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Man..I look for Lava Man to run huge in the Goodwin and if he wins this or runs good..I would say they send him to the BC Classic...where I think he has a legitimate chance to win...the Monmouth track should suit him just fine..you might get 10/15-1 on him..the East Coast bias should help his odds...he could be worth a ducat

His trainer has said that the Classic is out no matter what and if Lava Man does go to NJ, it would be for one of the mile races.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

His trainer has said that the Classic is out no matter what and if Lava Man does go to NJ, it would be for one of the mile races.

He won't have a chance in those races either. Anybody that bets on this horse outside of California just hasn't been paying attention. When he ships, it doesn't matter what kind of surface he runs on. He just loses badly.

If the track plays like it did today then A.P. Xcellent has a great chance to go gate to wire.

[letswastemoney]

In last year's BC Classic, Lava Man's odds were about equal to Invasor. So what was this about a bias...

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Out of curiousity, considering Lava Man has been absolutely awful everytime he has shipped anywhere outside of California, how will he have a legitimate shot in the Classic?

I think you have to look at Monmouth Park..it is different that the other "shipped to" surfaces he has raced on...MP is probably more like the California Tracks than any other track he has shipped to..and at some value..I think he has a shot..but he does have to put in a good effort in the Goodwin or I will be off the bandwagon rather quickly.