Is 3 too much ?

[miraja2]

First of all I really don't think the idea of having 2yos run a route of ground has anything to do with the Breeders Cup. The Norfolk has been run at 8.5 furlongs since 1970 and the Remsen has been run at 9f since 1973...etc. etc.
So 2yos were certainly running in stakes races at 8.5 furlongs and beyond well before 1984.
And how was it affecting them?
Well if you look at the Kentucky Derby winners from 1978-1983 (the six years right before the BC started) all six of them ran in stakes races going at least 8.5 furlongs or longer as 2yo. All six of them. Three of those six (Sunny's Halo, Pleasant Colony, and Genuine Risk) were stakes winners at 9f during their 2yo campaigns. It doesn't exactly seem like their 3yo campaigns were ruined does it?
If you look more recently, you see the exact same thing. The last three winners of the Kentucky Derby also ALL ran in stakes races going 8.5 furlongs as a 2yo.
Now, I am not one of those people who buys into those ridiculous "Derby angles" which say a horse MUST race a certain number of times at age two in order to have a chance to win the Derby. Those angles are all crap, and the Derby is just one example anyway. The point is that racing at 8.5f or beyond as a 2yo certainly does not - before or after the BC started - damage a horse's chance at having a good 3yo season.

[Pedigree Ann]

It isn't the distance - it's the number of tight turns. And the extra gate-speed required to get into position for the turn coming up quickly. Repeatedly and too early in the season. The October and November 2-turn innovation doesn't seem to have made much difference, but shoving such races back into September and August does. And the reason this has happened? Trainers want to have preps over the BC Juvie distance 4-6 weeks out, whereas in the not too distant past, 2-3 weeks out would have been sufficient. IMHO the Juvie should be at the longest distance (up to 8.5f) that the track can handle around one turn. You may not recall, but the Hollywood Park track was enlarged to 9f just before the first BC was run and the Juvie was run at 8f around one turn.

[Merlinsky]

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, a serious number of the fractures happen with the lead change. Could've sworn Ruffian had an issue with that and running on the wrong lead at the time of her injury. Turns would then have an impact and the younger horses running more turns would suffer greater strain. I wonder about starting the race on a turn and how much more stress that creates, if any.