Is Grasshopper a walk over?

[blackthroatedwind]

There are at least two races being run in this Super Derby and Grasshopper is the lone horse in his. The rest may or may not be competitive with each other but Grasshopper towers over them.

I know it's obvious but why are others even talking about hopelessly overmatched horses?

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are at least two races being run in this Super Derby and Grasshopper is the lone horse in his. The rest may or may not be competitive with each other but Grasshopper towers over them.

I know it's obvious but why are others even talking about hopelessly overmatched horses?

He has beaten CPWest and that Phipps horse

[letswastemoney]

Past the Point has a shot

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Past the Point has a shot

Not in a fairly run race he doesn't.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Past the Point has a shot

i'm quite probably the biggest fan of indian charlie (the horse) in the entire world, and i say unless grasshopper falls down, past the point has no shot.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are at least two races being run in this Super Derby and Grasshopper is the lone horse in his. The rest may or may not be competitive with each other but Grasshopper towers over them.

I know it's obvious but why are others even talking about hopelessly overmatched horses?

If the pinheads are idiots(on occaision this happens) and they all go out to beat Hell from the start, Going Ballistic might nail Grasshopper on the wire.

[blackthroatedwind]

Grasshopper rates just fine and is in a completely different world that the decidedly mediocre Going Ballistic. He can only be second, and may be, if two many others move too soon. But, without an incident, he can't beat Grasshopper.

I think Grasshopper's talent is being massively undervalued by some here. he's VERY good.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Grasshopper rates just fine and is in a completely different world that the decidedly mediocre Going Ballistic. He can only be second, and may be, if two many others move too soon. But, without an incident, he can't beat Grasshopper.

I think Grasshopper's talent is being massively undervalued by some here. he's VERY good.

there are a few of us here that are very high on him. i bet him to win the travers cause i thought that highly of him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Not only do I think Grasshopper is very good, I also think his competition in the Super Derby is extraordinarily weak, and just don't see him losing.

I guess he's another horse who people think may bounce.....you know like Lawyer Ron in the Woodward.

[ArlJim78]

several people were telling me that Grasshopper would bounce in the Travers, you know, because he was coming off of a big top.

[blackthroatedwind]

They all bounce.....except when they don't.

Do Neil Howard's horses bounce like horses from other trainers?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

there are a few of us here that are very high on him. i bet him to win the travers cause i thought that highly of him.

As I said at the time, I believe Street Sense was actually a good play in the Travers, even at those low odds. I probably underestimated Grasshopper that day, and I may be doing it again in this one, but trying to beat him here makes a lot more sense to me than trying to beat Street Sense in the Travers. I felt I was almost sure that I knew how Street Sense would perform going into that race based on his previous performances at that track and at that distance. I have a lot more questions about how Grasshopper will perform on Saturday. How will he fare in a two-turn race with semi-fast early fractions? Will he be able to repeat his Saratoga performances on another track? The answers are probably yes, but at odds-on I think I'll take a shot.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

As I said at the time, I believe Street Sense was actually a good play in the Travers, even at those low odds. I probably underestimated Grasshopper that day, and I may be doing it again in this one, but trying to beat him here makes a lot more sense to me than trying to beat Street Sense in the Travers. I felt I was almost sure that I knew how Street Sense would perform going into that race based on his previous performances at that track and at that distance. I have a lot more questions about how Grasshopper will perform on Saturday. How will he fare in a two-turn race with semi-fast early fractions? Will he be able to repeat his Saratoga performances on another track? The answers are probably yes, but at odds-on I think I'll take a shot.

He rated with no problem in sprints, don't see why he'd have a problem in a route. Actually he even rated in a route already as a 2yo. I've loved Grasshopper since early on but even I didn't think he could beat Street Sense. The difference between Grasshopper and this field though is a hell of a lot bigger than between SS and the Travers field.

[ArlJim78]

all he has to do is stay in the clear and he wins. it wasn't a fluke that he pushed Street Sense all out and left the rest of the field at Saratoga in the dust. the also rans in the Travers are better than what he faces now.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are at least two races being run in this Super Derby and Grasshopper is the lone horse in his. The rest may or may not be competitive with each other but Grasshopper towers over them.

I know it's obvious but why are others even talking about hopelessly overmatched horses?

You are probably right about this. I might just be crazy to try to beat him here, but something about his resume just doesn't seem to justify the proabably insane odds he will be on Saturday. And just for the record, my decision to play against him, doesn't have anything to do with the bounce theory. I have never put much stock in that theory.
Other than the basic points I have already articulated in this thread, I think the fact that a horse who has never won a stakes race, and has actually never even run a good race outside of Saratoga will be an overwhelming odds-on favorite is a bit much. He certainly gave Street Sense a good battle in the Travers, but I just think that battling a hanger (even a really good hanger like Street Sense) tends to lead to an overrated performance.
Is his competition daunting? Not at all. It isn't really even average, but I think the race might unfold in such a way that he is asked to do something he simply hasn't done before. Is he good enough to do that? Probably, but I just think the odds will be a little out of whack.
By the way btw, it is good to have you back on the board.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You are probably right about this. I might just be crazy to try to beat him here, but something about his resume just doesn't seem to justify the proabably insane odds he will be on Saturday. And just for the record, my decision to play against him, doesn't have anything to do with the bounce theory. I have never put much stock in that theory.
Other than the basic points I have already articulated in this thread, I think the fact that a horse who has never won a stakes race, and has actually never even run a good race outside of Saratoga will be an overwhelming odds-on favorite is a bit much. He certainly gave Street Sense a good battle in the Travers, but I just think that battling a hanger (even a really good hanger like Street Sense) tends to lead to an overrated performance.
Is his competition daunting? Not at all. It isn't really even average, but I think the race might unfold in such a way that he is asked to do something he simply hasn't done before. Is he good enough to do that? Probably, but I just think the odds will be a little out of whack.
By the way btw, it is good to have you back on the board.

What would he need to do that he hasn't done before?

[letswastemoney]

All it would take is Grasshopper to go down 7 beyer points and Past the Point to go up 7 beyer points. It's not out of the question. Grasshopper did go from 89 to 105 in 2 races, so it's too early to say what Past the Point can do.

Saying that though, Grasshopper will probably win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

All it would take is Grasshopper to go down 7 beyer points and Past the Point to go up 7 beyer points. It's not out of the question. Grasshopper did go from 89 to 105 in 2 races, so it's too early to say what Past the Point can do.

Saying that though, Grasshopper will probably win.

Betting the second choice while praying for an eight or nine length reversal of form, for no legitimate reason, may not be a great road to horseplaying success.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Betting the second choice while praying for an eight or nine length reversal of form, for no legitimate reason, may not be a great road to horseplaying success.

He's lightly raced. I wouldn't say the same about a horse that has started 10 times, but I'd give the possibility to a horse that has started 3 or 4 times.