Final Verdict ... Fog Is A Fraud

[dalakhani]

Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?

Saying that he is a "fraud" or "overrated" doesnt mean he is not a good horse. He demonstrated that he is a quality horse, maybe not an "all time great" or "the best sprinter in the country" but a quality horse none the less.

But how can anyone with a logical unbiased brain not see that this horse is not anywhere close to what he was being billed as?

Yes, he won some graded stake races last year, but against what? I know, I know...Ive heard it a million times- he beat what loaded into the gate. But still, does that really mean anything? What loaded into the gate is the magical question? Hot space? Social probation? better than bonds? Querreal? There was nothing in there to test him early and if there was, there was nothing of quality that was going to run him down last year.

He has faced two fields that would have any semblance of quality and has been soundly thrashed in both. When do the excuses end? Are we that desperate for a hero?

For those that disagree, please name me just ONE quality sprinter that he has beaten over the last two years and by quality i mean top ten. Just one.

For those that disagree, how many open company races as he won?

For those that disagree, name me ONE grade 1 sprint that you honestly think he would win at this point. Just one.

Remember, this was a horse that was billed as "the eclipse champion" and an "all time great" by many. If he was being hailed as a good sprinter that was capable of stepping up and winning a couple of nice races, then "fraud" wouldnt be applicable. But after how he was hyped, races like the smile or the comebacker at golden gate should have been breezes.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?

Saying that he is a "fraud" or "overrated" doesnt mean he is not a good horse. He demonstrated that he is a quality horse, maybe not an "all time great" or "the best sprinter in the country" but a quality horse none the less.

But how can anyone with a logical unbiased brain not see that this horse is not anywhere close to what he was being billed as?

Yes, he won some graded stake races last year, but against what? I know, I know...Ive heard it a million times- he beat what loaded into the gate. But still, does that really mean anything? What loaded into the gate is the magical question? Hot space? Social probation? better than bonds? Querreal? There was nothing in there to test him early and if there was, there was nothing of quality that was going to run him down last year.

He has faced two fields that would have any semblance of quality and has been soundly thrashed in both. When do the excuses end? Are we that desperate for a hero?

For those that disagree, please name me just ONE quality sprinter that he has beaten over the last two years and by quality i mean top ten. Just one.

For those that disagree, how many open company races as he won?

For those that disagree, name me ONE grade 1 sprint that you honestly think he would win at this point. Just one.

Remember, this was a horse that was billed as "the eclipse champion" and an "all time great" by many. If he was being hailed as a good sprinter that was capable of stepping up and winning a couple of nice races, then "fraud" wouldnt be applicable. But after how he was hyped, races like the smile or the comebacker at golden gate should have been breezes.

There weren't any great sprinters last year. LITF may not be an all-time great sprinter. I'm sure he could not beat Ghostazapper, Speighstown, Lit De Justice, or several others. LITF may not be that great of a sprinter, but last year I think he was the best sprinter. Who else was there? We really didn't have any consistent Grade I or Grade II sprinters. That is why the first three finishers in the BC Sprint were Silver Train, Taste of Paradise, and Lion Tamer. Who did Silver Train ever beat? Who ran 2nd in the BC Sprint? Taste of Paradise. He hadn't won a race all year. He was 0 for 6. Not only did he have no wins, he didn't even have any 2nds. Then he stepped up and won the Vosburgh at 27-1 and then ran 2nd in the BC Sprint. Taste of Paradise consistently showed all year that he couldn't even win a Grade II or Grade III. How did he win the Vosburgh? He won for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that the race did not play like a Grade I. Tiger Heart ran 2nd. Tiger Heart had never even placed in a graded race before.
You guys are just too caught up with the grade of the race. There were really no true Grade I horses last year. LITF had a much better record than anyone else last year. If you didn't give him the eclispe for best sprinter, you would have had to given it to Silver Train. People couldn't give it to Silver Train because his record was simply inferior to LITF. Both horses had pretty much run against 3 yer olds all year, but LITF was running against the best 3 year olds and he kept winning. ST was losing to medicore 3 year old. They weren't going to give the award to ST off the one big win. The rest of his year was just not good enough.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There weren't any great sprinters last year. LITF may not be an all-time great sprinter. I'm sure he could not beat Ghostazapper, Speighstown, Lit De Justice, or several others. LITF may not be that great of a sprinter, but last year I think he was the best sprinter. Who else was there? We really didn't have any consistent Grade I or Grade II sprinters. That is why the first three finishers in the BC Sprint were Silver Train, Taste of Paradise, and Lion Tamer. Who did Silver Train ever beat? Who ran 2nd in the BC Sprint? Taste of Paradise. He hadn't won a race all year. He was 0 for 6. Not only did he have no wins, he didn't even have and 2nds. Then he stepped up and won the Vosburgh at 27-1 and then ran 2nd in the BC Sprint. Taste of Paradise consistently showed all year that he couldn't even win a Grade II or Grade III. How did he win the Vosburgh? He won for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that the race did not play like a Grade I. Tiger Heart ran 2nd. Tiger Heart had never even placed in a graded race before.
You guys are just too caught up with the grade of the race. There were really no true Grade I horses last year. LITF had a much better record than anyone else last year. If you didn't give him the eclispe for best sprinter, you would have had to given it to Silver Train. People couldn't give it to Silver Train because his record was simply inferior to LITF. Both horses had pretty much run against 3 yer olds all year, but LITF was running against the best 3 year olds and he kept winning. ST was losing to medicore 3 year old. They weren't going to give the award to ST off the one big win. The rest of his year was just not good enough.

So what are you saying? That he was a deserving champion? There may not have been a "worthy" champion last year and LITF may have been the best of a bad lot. But does that mean he still wasnt overrated?

You said earlier in this thread that you wont "judge him when he doesnt fire" but when do you judge him if that is the case? When he is dancing past overmatched garbage?

Let me give you what i have heard over the last couple of months and tell me what you think:

Sept 05- he doesnt need to go to belmont for a prep. Nah...he just needs to stay home and collect a check and not tire himself out before the big dance. This is one of the best sprinters of all time.

Oct 05- (after bc loss) he just wasnt himself today. It just wasnt him. I mean- look who beat him. Those horses arent any good and it proves that he just wasnt right. Too much travel.

April 06- He doesnt need to go to gulfstream for the richter scale or Aqueduct for the carter. For the first time out, lets just give him an easy preop.

May 06- (after loss) The layoff and the weight took its toll. It wasnt the real foggy. You will see next time.

June 06- (after aristides win) That was the real fog today. It didnt matter what he beat, he beat what dared to load against him.

July 06- (after loss in smile) He didnt show up today. Nope- he didnt fire. Hes acting studdish. He has a quarter crack. The post hurt. He didnt like the track. He was giving too much weight. This wasnt the real fog.



When is it ever going to be "the real fog" that loses? Horses dont "fire" for a reason and when you disregard the factors that lead to a hrose not "firing" you are being blinded by the hype. It seems fog doesnt "fire" when there is a horse in the race that is capable of beating him. Its as simple as that.

He isnt a pig but he isnt close to being the best sprinter in the country. And if that is the case, he is a fraud.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

So what are you saying? That he was a deserving champion? There may not have been a "worthy" champion last year and LITF may have been the best of a bad lot. But does that mean he still wasnt overrated?

You said earlier in this thread that you wont "judge him when he doesnt fire" but when do you judge him if that is the case? When he is dancing past overmatched garbage?

Let me give you what i have heard over the last couple of months and tell me what you think:

Sept 05- he doesnt need to go to belmont for a prep. Nah...he just needs to stay home and collect a check and not tire himself out before the big dance. This is one of the best sprinters of all time.

Oct 05- (after bc loss) he just wasnt himself today. It just wasnt him. I mean- look who beat him. Those horses arent any good and it proves that he just wasnt right. Too much travel.

April 06- He doesnt need to go to gulfstream for the richter scale or Aqueduct for the carter. For the first time out, lets just give him an easy preop.

May 06- (after loss) The layoff and the weight took its toll. It wasnt the real foggy. You will see next time.

June 06- (after aristides win) That was the real fog today. It didnt matter what he beat, he beat what dared to load against him.

July 06- (after loss in smile) He didnt show up today. Nope- he didnt fire. Hes acting studdish. He has a quarter crack. The post hurt. He didnt like the track. He was giving too much weight. This wasnt the real fog.



When is it ever going to be "the real fog" that loses? Horses dont "fire" for a reason and when you disregard the factors that lead to a hrose not "firing" you are being blinded by the hype. It seems fog doesnt "fire" when there is a horse in the race that is capable of beating him. Its as simple as that.

He isnt a pig but he isnt close to being the best sprinter in the country. And if that is the case, he is a fraud.

Now, look at kentuckyrosesinmay's "reasons" as to why LITF didnt fire and tell me that there arent some shocking similarities.

Amazing.

Goo-gooism at its finest.

The fact that this horse has NEVER beaten a decent field and has lost every time he has faced one is not enough to convince the goo goos that this horse was overrated.

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Goo-gooism at its finest.

The fact that this horse has NEVER beaten a decent field and has lost every time he has faced one is not enough to convince the goo goos that this horse was overrated.

Sidebar:

For those of you who were never members of the "other" forum ...

... it was I ... little old me ... who coined the term "goo-goo" 2+ years ago ... to describe the naïve dreamers who ... in the Spring of 2004 ... had declared that year's 3YOS to be the greatest crop in American history.

So, yes ... I'll take both the credit ... and the blame ... for coining that term.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Now, look at kentuckyrosesinmay's "reasons" as to why LITF didnt fire and tell me that there arent some shocking similarities.

Amazing.

Goo-gooism at its finest.

The fact that this horse has NEVER beaten a decent field and has lost every time he has faced one is not enough to convince the goo goos that this horse was overrated.

He's never beaten a decent field? That's absurd. He's won six graded stakes races the past year and a half. You guys say the most ridiculous things. I could say that Afleet Alex has not beaten a decent field. Who did he beat in the Belmont? Andromeda's Hero and Nolan's Cat. Who did he beat in the Preakness? Scrappy T. Afleet Alex never beat an older horse and when he faced really tough fields like in the Ky Derby and the BC Juvenille he lost.
Who did Leroidisanimaux ever beat? He never beat any really good horses. When he finally faced a tough field in the BC Mile, he lost.
I could make the same arguments that you guys made about practically any horse. There are only a few horses over the past 10 years, that you couldn't make these argumnets about. The only horses that you couldn't make such arguments about are horses that are pretty much undefeated and have beaten really good horses. The only horse I can think of that you could say that about would be Ghostzapper. He was practically undefeated and he beat a couple of very good horses in Saint Liam and Roses in May. But there's even a big knock on Ghostzapper. He hardly ever ran. You could argue that the only reason his recrd was so good was because he ran so infrequently.
You guys think you're making these brilliant arguments but you're not. We know that LITF is not doing well. We know he's got physical problems. His trainer has been very concerned about these problems, so concerned that they may retire the horse in July. Horses don't retire in July unless they are hurt. What more do you need to know?

[dr. fager]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You guys think you're making these brilliant arguments but you're not. We know that LITF is not doing well. We know he's got physical problems. His trainer has been very concerned about these problems, so concerned that they may retire the horse in July. Horses don't retire in July unless they are hurt. What more do you need to know?

Ok, my only question is why run him this past Saturday then? Why not keep him in California instead of shipping him across the country?

Bing Crosby is coming up, or didn't they want him to lock up with Bordonaro?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dr.fager

Ok, my only question is why run him this past Saturday then? Why not keep him in California instead of shipping him across the country?

Bing Crosby is coming up, or didn't they want him to lock up with Bordonaro?

These trainers run their horses all the time when they're not doing well. It would be easy to name 1000 horses that have run when they weren't doing well. Most horses don't stay in form for very long. One of the main reasons is because they are very fragile and most of the time they are battling some type of physical problem. If trainers only ran horses when they were at the top of thier game, we'd have nothing but 3 horse fields. I doubt Gilchrist knew for sure that the horse would run bad. The horse was coming off a nice win. I think he probably had some of the sme problems going into that race, yet he still won, so I'm sure that Gilchrist was hopeful that maybe the horse would win despite the fact that he wasn't at his best. The reason he chose the Calder race was because of the timing and because of the huge purse, not to mention that the horse had won at Calder before.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He's never beaten a decent field? That's absurd. He's won six graded stakes races the past year and a half. You guys say the most ridiculous things. I could say that Afleet Alex has not beaten a decent field. Who did he beat in the Belmont? Andromeda's Hero and Nolan's Cat. Who did he beat in the Preakness? Scrappy T. Afleet Alex never beat an older horse and when he faced really tough fields like in the Ky Derby and the BC Juvenille he lost.
Who did Leroidisanimaux ever beat? He never beat any really good horses. When he finally faced a tough field in the BC Mile, he lost.
I could make the same arguments that you guys made about practically any horse. There are only a few horses over the past 10 years, that you couldn't make these argumnets about. The only horses that you couldn't make such arguments about are horses that are pretty much undefeated and have beaten really good horses. The only horse I can think of that you could say that about would be Ghostzapper. He was practically undefeated and he beat a couple of very good horses in Saint Liam and Roses in May. But there's even a big knock on Ghostzapper. He hardly ever ran. You could argue that the only reason his recrd was so good was because he ran so infrequently.
You guys think you're making these brilliant arguments but you're not. We know that LITF is not doing well. We know he's got physical problems. His trainer has been very concerned about these problems, so concerned that they may retire the horse in July. Horses don't retire in July unless they are hurt. What more do you need to know?

What is absurd about that statement? Now lets not start double talking. Earlier in the thread, you said that we were too fixated on race grading and NOW you have the nerve to use it as the basis for this weak argument. Quit flip flopping.

Who did he beat? Name one quality field

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is absurd about that statement? Now lets not start double talking. Earlier in the thread, you said that we were too fixated on race grading and NOW you have the nerve to use it as the basis for this weak argument. Quit flip flopping.

Who did he beat? Name one quality field

I'm not double-talking at all. I still stick to my statement that you can't always rely on the grading of a race to decide how good the field is. A grade III race can sometimes play tougher than a grade I. If the only information you knew about a horse was that he once won a graded race, it wouldn't tell you a whole lot about how good he is. It could have been a weak graded race. If the only thing you knew about a horse was that he was a grade I winner, that wouldn't really tell you that much. It could have been a weak grade I. However, if you know that a horse has won six graded stakes races, that tells you something. One or two graded wins could be a fluke. A horse could have caught one or two weak fields. When a horse does it six times, it means something.
You guys think that the LITF supporters are making excuses for him. You think the excuses we are making to explain his bad performances are weak excuses. You guys are making way more excuses than we are. I'm making excuses for 3 sub-par races. You guys are making excuses for 11 wins, including 10 stakes races and 6 graded stakes races. When he ran a really fast time, it was only because the track was really fast. When he ran all of these huge speed figures, the figures must be wrong. When he won all of these graded stakes races at major tracks, every one of those races must have been weak. When he beat older horses, the older horses weren't that good. You guys have a million more excuses than I do. All I have to do is explain 3 sub-par races. You guys have to explain away an incredible record that includes 11 wins from 14 starts including 6 graded stakes wins.
How many other horses won 10 out of 11 races in a year including 5 graded races? If it's not that hard to do and a trainer simply needs to pick easy spots, then name me some mediocre horses that have done it.
It's not that the LITF supporters are desperate for a hero, it's that the LITF knockers are desperate to knock down a champ. That's the way message boards are. People knock Tiger Woods on message boards. They say, "Aha, he lost this week. You see, he's not that good. He's a choker." The nonsense you read on these board is comical.
All that being said, I don't think LITF is in the league of some of the great horses I've seen like Ghostzapper.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He has won 11 of 14, come on hardly fraudulent to me.

How can a great record be fraudulent?

Two words ... Andy Kaufman.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I will ask this question for the third time because NOONE WANTS TO GIVE IT A RESPONSE...

Why did many of the top contenders in July 15th's races at Calder not win? Were they all just not good enough or could there be some other logical explanation?

Hmmm....I wonder.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Bold, I'm not making excuses for LITF, but what does Andy Kaufman have to do with anything? Andy Kaufman's matches were fixed,

Wrong ... wrong ... wrong ...

... all of Andy's matches against women were legit ... only his final match against a man was a con job.

Lost In The Fog's opposition wasn't quite as suspect as Kaufman's ... but the analogy makes the point ...

... don't be overly impressed by winning streaks against restricted opposition ... wait until everyone is allowed to play.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm sure most people out there would love to train or own a horse who has won 11 of 14, whether it's a $5,000 claimer or a stakes horse.

And I'd have loved to have been Andy Kaufman's agent.

Lost In The Fog's connections are to be commended ... they won a lot of races and a lot of money with a modestly talented sprinter. Hats off to them!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Now, look at kentuckyrosesinmay's "reasons" as to why LITF didnt fire and tell me that there arent some shocking similarities.

Amazing.

Goo-gooism at its finest.

The fact that this horse has NEVER beaten a decent field and has lost every time he has faced one is not enough to convince the goo goos that this horse was overrated.

Well, then you tell me what happened to some of the other top horses at Calder on July 15th. The top horses weren't winning. I guess it was because they all just aren't good enough.

[Rupert Pupkin]

[quote=dalakhani]Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?

According to that logic, every sprinter out there has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions. Silver Train gets beat time and time again. he's only won 6 times out of 16 races. According to your logic, he has proven time and time again that he is vastly overrated. You could say the same thing for every horse in that race on Saturday.
LITF has hardly proven time and time again that he is overrated. He's only lost 3 times in his entire career.
Don't give me that argument that his record is bad facing older horses in graded races. It's not true. He has faced older horses in graded races 3 times. He's won 1 out of 3. That means he's batting .333. That's probably a better batting average than practically every horse in that race on Saturay. How many of those are batting over .333 in graded races against older horses. Probably not too many. And many of us believe that LITF did not fire in his two defeats.

[dalakhani]

[quote=Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?

According to that logic, every sprinter out there has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions. Silver Train gets beat time and time again. he's only won 6 times out of 16 races. According to your logic, he has proven time and time again that he is vastly overrated. You could say the same thing for every horse in that race on Saturday.
LITF has hardly proven time and time again that he is overrated. He's only lost 3 times in his entire career.
Don't give me that argument that his record is bad facing older horses in graded races. It's not true. He has faced older horses in graded races 3 times. He's won 1 out of 3. That means he's batting .333. That's probably a better batting average than practically every horse in that race on Saturay. How many of those are batting over .333 in graded races against older horses. Probably not too many. And many of us believe that LITF did not fire in his two defeats.

No one called silver train "the best sprinter in the country" and certainly no one ever said that the train was an all time great. When the train lost, there werent a million excuses- he just lost.

There wasnt a tenth of the hype surrounding any of the horses in that race compared to LITF. Not a tenth. Based on the hype, he should have spanked those horses regardless of the excuses.

Quit trying to talk around the point here. The point is that he was vastly overrated. Can you actually disagree with that?

[Rupert Pupkin]

[quote=dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No one called silver train "the best sprinter in the country" and certainly no one ever said that the train was an all time great. When the train lost, there werent a million excuses- he just lost.

There wasnt a tenth of the hype surrounding any of the horses in that race compared to LITF. Not a tenth. Based on the hype, he should have spanked those horses regardless of the excuses.

Quit trying to talk around the point here. The point is that he was vastly overrated. Can you actually disagree with that?

No, I really don't think he was overrated. What he did last year was pretty remarkable. It's tough for sprinters to stay in form for long periods. Sprinters run so fast that it's hard to keep them sound. This horse was being shipped all over the place running in gradedrace after graded race and he kept winning. I'm not a big speed figure guy and I did not see his first two careeer races. They gave him huge numbers in those races and since I had not seen the races, I was very skeptical. Then he went down to Gulfstream and ran against some pretty good horses and won easily. I was still somewhat skeptical because Gulfstream seemed a little like Keeneland to me at times. It seemed like there was a speed bias there and it also seemed like some horses didn't handle the track. Then he won at Gulfstream again but I was still somewhat skeptical because it was Gulfstream. Then he went to New York and won a grade III race easily in a very fast time. Then he went to Golden Gate and won by 10 in 1:07 1/5. Then he won a grade II in New York, followed by a grade II in Florida, followed by a grade I in New York. Then he beat older horses at Bay Meadows in 1:08. In addition, he looked really good doing it in most of these races. That's the most important thing to me. I ca make a pretty good judgement of a horse's ability even if they beat nobody. Their stride is the most impotant thing. I thought that Roses in May looked like one of the best horses I'd seen in years based on an allowance win. High Fly was just the opposite. He was winning, but he looked awful doing it. He had a really bad way of moving and he was really sore. When you're in this business, you will never make any money buying horses or betting on horses, if you don't see a horse's potential until he beats the best horses in a big race. In the case of LITF, it didn't take a genuis to figure out he was a really good horse after he won 10 races in a row at multiple tracks including 5 graded races. It wasn't just who he was beating. It was the way he was moving(his stride), it was the margin of victory, and it was the huge numbers he was running. He was definitely the real deal.

[ArlJim78]

RP “You statement that "he fires in every race that fits the pace description and competition level that I previously gave and he mis-fires every time he is in against tough horses" is totally untrue. He's gone :43 1/5 and won by 10 lengths. “

That was at Golden Gate and it was a three horse field!!!! You should pay less attention to times and more to pace figures, the quality of the competition, and the way the horse ran, how many obstacles did he overcome, how hard was he asked, etc.

RP “The only race he lost last year was the BC Sprint. That was one race. That is hardly proof of anything. A more obvious reason for his poor performance was because he had one too many trips across the country and one too many hard races. “

Is it really more likely that it was due to the travel? Take a look at the following. I alluded to his performances being predictable with the Bris pace and speed figures.
Below I am using Bris terms E1-pace figure to the quarter, E2-pace figure to the half, LP-pace figure from the half to the end, SPD-final speed figure. Here is the average pace profile for LITF. This is an average of all his races.
E1 E2 LP SPD
95 107 92 102

Now here are the figures he ran in his last four races prior to the Smile

Aristides - finished first
E1 E2 LP SPD
88 103 102 107

Golden Gate sprint - finished second in four horse field. Only one real competitor.
E1 E2 LP SPD
101 110 81 96

BC - Sprint - finished seventh
E1 E2 LP SPD
100 115 82 100

Bay Meadows Speed – finished first in a five horse field
E1 E2 LP SPD
94 103 105 109

You say he didn’t fire in the races that he lost. I am saying that he most definitely did fire and he actually ran faster initial pace figures than he normally does to the quarter and the half. In fact they were too fast for him to sustain and his late pace suffered as well as his speed. Those races caused him to work harder early than he did when he went 43 and change against two horses at GG. I don’t know the numbers for the Smile yet but I’m sure that they were huge for E1 and E2. LITF looks to have run his worst race to date but I will also say that I think it was the most challenging field he’s faced in terms of front end speed.

Maybe it’s you who needs to learn a bit more on evaluating horses when they race against weak fields. I was the one who wasn’t fooled by his wins over weak fields. Frankly this is so obvious I’m surprised that it is taking people so long to catch on.

[Athletics005]

Retirement a possibility for Lost in the Fog
By CHUCK DYBDAL
In the wake of Lost in the Fog's ninth-place finish Saturday in the Grade 2 Smile Sprint at Calder, trainer Greg Gilchrist said that he and owner Harry Aleo are giving thought to retiring the colt. Lost in the Fog, the champion sprinter of 2005, will get a rest, Gilchrist said, and a decision on his future will be made when he returns to training.

"We're not leaning one way or the other," he said. "We'll give him time to get his feet underneath him and see how he is. We want to determine if he can be competitive at the level he should be. If it were going to take two or three months to bring him back, and there was only one race left for him this year, we'd probably retire him."

Gilchrist said Lost in the Fog didn't seem to try in the Smile, in which he carried high weight of 125 pounds and was the even-money favorite. Aleo and Gilchrist have said that Lost in the Fog, a 4-year-old by Lost Soldier, would race as both a 4-year-old and 5-year-old, and this is the first time they have questioned that plan.

"You can't put a positive spin on it," Gilchrist said. "It's the first time I've seen him not try. He carried a lot of weight, but that had nothing to do with running that poorly. He's got a lot of problems, things like quarter cracks and bumps and bruises. It's nothing life-threatening or career-ending, but they catch up with him."

Earlier at Calder on Saturday, the Gilchrist-trained Victorina won the Grade 3 Azalea Breeders' Cup Stakes. Gilchrist said he expected a good race out of Victorina but that he wasn't sure how Lost in the Fog would run.

"There were no surprises for me Saturday," trainer Greg Gilchrist said. "I wasn't surprised she ran well, and it didn't surprise me the other horse didn't."

Lost in the Fog and Victorina, both owned by Aleo, were scheduled to arrive at Golden Gate Fields late Tuesday afternoon.