Travers Stakes (gr. I)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.

The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.

To me this is the key point. I think that even if everything you say is true, and this is not his "preferred set-up for a peak performance," he will almost certainly win anyway against these. If Curlin or AGS was here, that would obviously be a different story. At 10f, I don't think he needs anywhere near his peak performance to win this particular race.
On top of that, I'm not sure that we won't see a peak performance out of him. His Jim Dandy was his first back off a layoff and was clearly not the race the barn was pointing towards. Although talk of barns getting their horse to peak for specific races is generally incredibly overblown, this one seems to do very well when they are gunning for a particular race as they are here.
My larger point was that I often think people get locked in to trying to "beat" all odds-on favorites. While this can be a good general principle, not all odds-on favorites are created equally. If a horse is 3/5 or 4/5 and should be 1/5....there is some value there. As far as I am concerned Street Sense falls into this range. Say he goes off at 3/5 and Grasshopper goes off at 8/1. To me there is more value in Street Sense than in a horse making his stakes debut, and his 10f debut, in a G1 race with a horse like Street Sense. Could Grasshopper win? Sure. But I would put the odds on that happening at about 20/1.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Street Sense at anywhere near even money is a steal.

1/2 is the highest you will see on him.

[Mike]

I'll tri key Street Sense over CP West and Grasshopper

I think Street Sense is such bad odds, and I think a previous poster might have nailed it, with a smaller field, and pace, , he might not run according to form. He has the class, no doubt to win from anywhere, but he does have a habit of winning or losing by just enough. He hung and gawked against Curlin, and was all out to beat Any Given Saturday. He had to run down Hard Spun with a perfect trip. Might be a time to take a shot...esp if he does go off at 1 to 9. why not....Graveyard of favorites..... don't spend a lot, but maybe get a lot back. Grasshopper I hear alot about, but like a previous poster said, might be the wiseguy horse.... Maybe bet on the 20-1 shot? For You Reppo? Haskin kinda mentioned the horse sheepishly last night on Steve's show, as maybe a horse that was interesting.....

[Bobby Fischer]

For You Reppo is interesting. His pedigree says no, but he has a foundation of 9f races, and a good trainer. Gomez can ride... why not


No one should beat Street Sense here, unless Street Sense tires unexpectedly.

Grasshoper has the most unknown potential, but I think Sightseeing has solid form.

If Sightseeing could magically combine the best aspects of his last two races -
The Dwyer where he makes excellent headway on the backstretch before getting sandwiched, and The Dandy where he shows late interest -
Sightseeing could at least make Street Sense work. Then sightseeing could magically combine some pick-6 tickets for me.