Hard Spun to the King's Bishop

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

None of those races played to his style like the Breeders Cup Classic likely will.

It's as if a lot of you guys assume circumstances have nothing to do with outcomes.

but you are assuming that you can win the classic based on merely on favorable pace circumstances. don't you think this his classic competitors will have a say in this and will not sit idly by while HS steals the race.

your seem to imply that the presense of Cable Boy was the main reason for AGS getting the Haskell win.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

but you are assuming that you can win the classic based on merely on favorable pace circumstances.

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

don't you think this his classic competitors will have a say in this and will not sit idly by while HS steals the race.

The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.

GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.



The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.
GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

While he doesn't stop running, per se, and we've seen him run a mile and a quarter rather fast and well in the set up you are decribing in the Derby, it doesn't explain why he has no immediate response to another horse when he comes up along side and goes by. It is hard to believe he will be "unchallenged" the entire race in the Classic.

As it pertains to Ghostzapper, there isn't a person alive who thought this horse could run his opening 6f in 1:11, that was why they didn't go with him. In the Woodward Ghostzapper and Sait Liam went 1/2 mile in 45:3 and 6f in 1:08:3.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyQvN...d%2F1911520517

How do they notate a "zop" in the form?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.



The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.

GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

Wanderin Boy opted to skip the Classic last year when he could have run in it. Now he'll likely run in the Dirt Mile yet he'll be used as an example of a pace horse lost from the Classic even though he wouldn't have run in it either way. I think you are overestimating the lure of an ungraded $1 million race as opposed to a $5 million G1 that is the biggest race on the planet. The horses that go in the Dirt Mile will for the most part be horses that wouldn't have run in the BC otherwise. Perhaps Brother Derek and Suave would have been lost from the field last year, certainly an impact on the race but it is hardly going to turn into a situation where the Dirt Mile turns the Classic into a paceless affair. This could all change though if the purse in the Dirt Mile were to be boosted in the future and it were elevated to G1 status. For now though anyone that feels they have enough of a chance in the Classic to enter will do so regardless of whether or not there is a Dirt Mile as an option.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Wanderin Boy opted to skip the Classic last year when he could have run in it. Now he'll likely run in the Dirt Mile yet he'll be used as an example of a pace horse lost from the Classic even though he wouldn't have run in it either way. I think you are overestimating the lure of an ungraded $1 million race as opposed to a $5 million G1 that is the biggest race on the planet. The horses that go in the Dirt Mile will for the most part be horses that wouldn't have run in the BC otherwise. Perhaps Brother Derek and Suave would have been lost from the field last year, certainly an impact on the race but it is hardly going to turn into a sitatuion where the Dirt Mile turns the Classic into a paceless affair. This could all change though if the purse in the Dirt Mile were to be boosted in the future and it were elevated to G1 status. For now though anyone that feels they have enough of a chance in the Classic to enter will do so regardless of whether or not there is a Dirt Mile as an option.

I don't agree.

Lawyer Ron....who would be the clear-cut consensus favorite for the BC Classic among the older males...he was being pointed to the BC Dirt Mile as lately as less than one month ago.

Even before he went to post as the favorite for the Met Mile, his goal was the BC Dirt Mile. I'm sure his Whitney performance changes that.

I think you'd be surprised at how many trainers would rather be 3rd or 4th choice in the Dirt Mile betting, than 8th or 9th choice (at massive odds) in the Classic betting.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't agree.

Lawyer Ron....who would be the clear-cut consensus favorite for the BC Classic among the older males...he was being pointed to the BC Dirt Mile as lately as less than one month ago.

Even before he went to post as the favorite for the Met Mile, his goal was the BC Dirt Mile. I'm sure his Whitney performance changes that.

I think you'd be surprised at how many trainers would rather be 3rd or 4th choice in the Dirt Mile betting, than 8th or 9th choice (at massive odds) in the Classic betting.

They were thinking Dirt Mile since they thought there was no chance of him getting 10 furlongs. Now that he ran so well at nine they will take the shot in the Classic even though they know he'd have a better chance of winning the Dirt Mile. Had he not run well at nine and there was no BC Dirt Mile then he would have probably skipped the BC altogether to run in the Cigar Mile. The past two years there have been graded stakes on the undercard at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. I don't expect the BC Dirt Mile field to take the Classic horses this year any more than those races did. Like I said, if it becomes a G1 someday then it does become huge competition for the Classic and will cannibalize it but I don't think anyone will be treating it like a G1 option this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Like I said, if it becomes a G1 someday then it does become huge competition for the Classic and will cannibalize it but I don't think anyone will be treating it like a G1 option this year.

You are over-emphasizing the value the Grade 1 status brings to the race. It might not have the label, but it is still a Breeders Cup race.

If anyone remembers the first running of the American Oaks, it was ungraded, but still managed to draw a spectacular field of horses from all acorss the country and world.

A few years from now, when every BC race has Grade 1 status, I doubt the winners of the inital few runnings will have the ungraded status held against their win.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are right...you most certainly can.

See Black Tie Affair and his 122 Beyer figure.

I'm just about convinced this year's pace will be as soft as any Classic I've seen in my lifetime. The advent of the BC Dirt Mile can be thanked for that.



The main contenders won't....that is for sure. Any Given Saturday isn't fast enough to press him...and Garret Gomez isn't that style of rider.

JRV will back Lawyer Ron, that I have no doubt of.

Street Sense and Curlin obviously won't be dueling with any front-runners.

A horse like Wanderin Boy, who would normally run in the Classic, would opt for the Dirt Mile and 70 yards. Same with a horse like Fairbanks.

The thing I'd love most about Hard Spun's chances, is the precieved notion that he doesn't want to stay 10 furlongs. Because of that, whoever is sitting 2nd is much more likely to try and settle his horse in hand.

If anyone remembers back to Ghostzapper, the idiotic questions about his (in)ability to see out the 10 furlong distance was the reason he was allowed an unpressured lead.

GZ and Roses In May sailed 1-2 at every call all around the track.

well you've referenced Black Tie Affair, Roses In May, and Ghostzapper while making the case for Hard Spun. I guess I'm simply not getting the similarity to any of those instances. I can think of no race of Hard Spuns that is reminiscent of a Ghostzapper.