Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

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Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

[Note: there was an error in my "Overall" stats yesterday. The "Total bets" should have been $1035 not $1073. The net loss is correct. I'll fix the total bets beginning with today's post, but I don't want to edit a selections post from earlier.]

My single in the 9th led until the stretch and then faded to 7th, beaten about 2 lengths.
I had the last 3 of the 4-2-10-1, but had my single come through, the payoff would have been more like $600 than the actual $9753.

And I should note that if Ellis had Saratoga's 25% takeout instead of 4%, the Pick 4 would have paid about $7600. That's an extra $2100 those Ellis winners collected thanks to the 4% takeout.

Daily result: -$160

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

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Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

--Dunbar

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good luck dunbar..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

good luck dunbar..

thanks, hooves. Dismissed the #3 (7-2) in the 10th because of first try on turf against some proven turf runners. Would only have gotten back about $250 of my $312+, but I'd take that over $0.

Now I have to wait until Wednesday! ;>)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

************************************************

Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

Daily result: -$312

Overall:
Total bets: $1507
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$729.65

************************************************

Aug 8 selections:

$1 each:

6) 1,6,10
7) 5,6
8) 1,6,7
9) 3,4,5,10,11

Total bet for Aug 8: $90

101 deg at Ellis Park right now. "feels like" 112 according to weather.com. Wouldn't blame any horse for going on strike today.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous overall:
Total bets: $1507
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$729.65

************************************************

Aug 8 selections:

$1 each:

6) 1,6,10
7) 5,6
8) 1,6,7
9) 3,4,5,10,11

Total bet for Aug 8: $90

101 deg at Ellis Park right now. "feels like" 112 according to weather.com. Wouldn't blame any horse for going on strike today.

Someone might reasonably ask how I caught the $17.40, $9.20, and $7.40 winners of the 6,7, and 9th races, but MISSED the $5.40 horse in the 8th. The answer is simple. I SCREWED UP BIGTIME! I was in a rush on my last day in Hawaii, and must have flipped past that legitimate fav while paging down the Formulator 4 PP's. There's no way in the world a Beyer guy like me leaves out the standout Beyer horse from my ticket. The $1 pick 4 paid $863. With my "winner", it would have paid around $840, enough to put me in the plus column. Chalk it up to the blunder ledger.

Moving on....

Overall results:
Total bets: $1597
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$819.65

************************************************** *

Aug 12 selections:

8) 1,2,4,6
9) 7,8
10) 1,6,8
11) 6,9,10

$1 each, 4x2x3x3=$72

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Good luck today Dunbar, lets get you in the black

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

Good luck today Dunbar, lets get you in the black

Thanks, Scav. I'm live into the 4th leg, but with the 7.00, 3.20, 7.20, so far, it may take some luck to pay for the $72 ticket today!

In my effort to support the 4% Pick-4, I actually bet it as a $2 ticket. I also took a 50c ticket using the remaining horses in the 11th. Guaranteed a winner, but it may not pay for today's ticket.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1597
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$819.65

************************************************** *

Aug 12 selections:

8) 1,2,4,6
9) 7,8
10) 1,6,8
11) 6,9,10

$1 each, 4x2x3x3=$72

I had the 6-7-6-10 winning ticket, but with three 5-2 shots and a 3-5 shot, along with several scratches sharing the payoff, it paid just $119.70 for $1. Still, way better than a win parlay or what it would have paid with Saratoga's 25% takeout.

Result for Aug 12: +47.80

Overall results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

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Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I had the 6-7-6-10 winning ticket, but with three 5-2 shots and a 3-5 shot, along with several scratches sharing the payoff, it paid just $119.70 for $1. Still, way better than a win parlay or what it would have paid with Saratoga's 25% takeout.

Result for Aug 12: +47.80

Overall results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

--Dunbar

Doesn't look like it is getting the support, 18k today and hilarious Arlington did twice that.

The payout is kinda sketchy also with a $25 horse and two wide open fields.

[ArlJim78]

8-17
i'm going to play these numbers, in various combinations between 50cents and $3. when i have the totals i'll post it.

7) 1 5 6 7
8) 1 3 6 9
9) 3 5 9
10) 2 3 6 7

[Scav]

7: 5
8: 3,4,6,7
9: 2,3,4,5
10: 2,3

$16 per 50 cents

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

Doesn't look like it is getting the support, 18k today and hilarious Arlington did twice that.

"hilarious" is not the word I'd choose. I'd call it tragic. Horseplayers will get what they deserve for not supporting this 4% Pick-4--we can expect a future of unrelenting high takeout. Anyone suggesting that lower takeout will result in significantly higher pools will be laughed at.

I'm continuing to put between $200-$400 daily into the Ellis Pick-4 pools in the faint hope that the rest of the racing community will wake up. If everyone on this site alone pitched in the last couple of weeks (closing day is Sept 3), maybe something can still be salvaged for the future.

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

The problem with Ellis is they went too low and a lot of places aren't taking the bet.

I don't play many exotics, but I've been playing this one just for the principle of the thing.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

Result for Aug 16: -$157.50.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

previous results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

Result for Aug 22: 6-6-9-3 paid $94.75. So I lost $55.25 on my $150 ticket.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

Just got home, had to watch Golden Hare race. She was my single as well.

5/2,4,5/6,8/2,5 Six bucks

I try to hit these going much shorter.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

Golden Hare came through fine, but I missed the #2 in the 9th.

Result for Aug 23: -$140

Overall results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

--Dunbar