Lawyer Ron's Time

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

he would of won at 10f Saturday on that track against the same field.

You are PROBABLY right about this, but there is no way anybody can know that for sure. If the race was run at 10f, a lot of things MIGHT have been different. The pace might have been different, horses could have made moves at different timess, jocks might have used different strategies etc.
Winning in impressive fashion at 9f simply does not mean that a horse will be effective at 10f.
I stand by my statement that I don't think Lawyer Ron will be a paricularly effective horse at 10f.
Here are the three main reasons why:
1) He ran rather poorly in his two previous attempts at 10f. I know people will say that he is "a completely different horse now" and things like that, but the fact remains that his best efforts at both ages 3 and 4 have come in the 8.5 - 9f range.
2) His pedigree. He just doesn't have a good 10f pedigree. Langfuhr was a good racehorse, but he did his best work in the 7f-8f range, as have most of his offspring. Being out of a Lord Avie mare doesn't scream 10f either. In the 2006 Derby, he had - in my opinion - the worst 10f pedigree of any horse in the race.
3) It seems to me that he reaches the bottom of the tank every time in these 9f races. This (of course) is an impossible thing to know for sure, and even if true, doesn't have to mean that he can't get 10f effectively, but when combined with the first two reasons I mentioned lead me to my conclusion.

Could I be wrong? Sure. The other thing to remember is that with the weakness of the handicap division this year, I could be right and he could still win a G1-10f race if they decide to go that way.
But with a 1m70yd BC race this year, I think they would be best served to point in that direction and keep the horse in the 8f - 9f range. By the way, I am not knocking the horse. There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with being a G1 caliber horse in that 8f-9f range.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You are PROBABLY right about this, but there is no way anybody can know that for sure. If the race was run at 10f, a lot of things MIGHT have been different. The pace might have been different, horses could have made moves at different timess, jocks might have used different strategies etc.
Winning in impressive fashion at 9f simply does not mean that a horse will be effective at 10f.
I stand by my statement that I don't think Lawyer Ron will be a paricularly effective horse at 10f.
Here are the three main reasons why:
1) He ran rather poorly in his two previous attempts at 10f. I know people will say that he is "a completely different horse now" and things like that, but the fact remains that his best efforts at both ages 3 and 4 have come in the 8.5 - 9f range.
2) His pedigree. He just doesn't have a good 10f pedigree. Langfuhr was a good racehorse, but he did his best work in the 7f-8f range, as have most of his offspring. Being out of a Lord Avie mare doesn't scream 10f either. In the 2006 Derby, he had - in my opinion - the worst 10f pedigree of any horse in the race.
3) It seems to me that he reaches the bottom of the tank every time in these 9f races. This (of course) is an impossible thing to know for sure, and even if true, doesn't have to mean that he can't get 10f effectively, but when combined with the first two reasons I mentioned lead me to my conclusion.

Could I be wrong? Sure. The other thing to remember is that with the weakness of the handicap division this year, I could be right and he could still win a big 10f race like the JCGC if they decide to go that way.
But with a 1m70yd BC race this year, I think they would be best served to point in that direction and keep the horse in the 8f - 9f range. By the way, I am not knocking the horse. There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with being a G1 caliber horse in that 8f-9f range.

Weren't both of his 10 furlong runs at Churchill? It is still possible he simply doesn't like that track. He might not have been as good at 9 furlongs if he went in the Foster.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Weren't both of his 10 furlong runs at Churchill? It is still possible he simply doesn't like that track. He might not have been as good at 9 furlongs if he went in the Foster.

Well, it is certainly possible. If I remember correctly however, he seemed to be training decently at CD before the Derby, and he seemed to handle the track okay in opening half of the BCC. In my opinion it was the 10f rather than the track that did him in those days, but we can't know that for sure.
Also, those two races were won by a couple of horses named Barbaro and Invasor, and I feel confident in saying that he won't have to worry about meeting horses of that caliber this year. However, it wasn't like it was just those horses that beat him. Afterall, horses like Jazil and Steppenwolfer beat him too.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well, it is certainly possible. If I remember correctly however, he seemed to be training decently at CD before the Derby, and he seemed to handle the track okay in opening half of the BCC. In my opinion it was the 10f rather than the track that did him in those days, but we can't know that for sure.
Also, those two races were won by a couple of horses named Barbaro and Invasor, and I feel confident in saying that he won't have to worry about meeting horses of that caliber this year. However, it wasn't like it was just those horses that beat him. Afterall, horses like Jazil and Steppenwolfer beat him too.

I don't put much stock in how horses are training over a track. Besides Churchill is well known for changing their surface on big days. I think it is likely that he is a much better horse at 9 furlongs than 10 but I think the fact that both flops at 10 were at Churchill is worth factoring in to your capping. Of course after that race he'll be an eternal underlay and play against from here on out so it is probably irrelevant.

[ArlJim78]

there is nothing similar about Lawyers Ron's previous 9F races and the Whitney, therefore I think its shaky to conclude that he would have the same type of failure now with the 10F distance. can you really look at the Whitney, a race in which he absolutely smoked the field, and conclude that the horse will have trouble with another eighth?

i would ask if there was anyone in that field that looked like another furlong would have really helped.