Lawyer Ron's Time

[classhandicapper]

I think it more than likely that the track changed speeds between the Ginger Punch race and the Whitney. If someone was actually at the track, they might know if the maintenace crew added water or worked on the track prior to the Whitney like they often do before feature races.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think it more than likely that the track changed speeds between the Ginger Punch race and the Whitney. If someone was actually at the track, they might know if the maintenace crew added water or worked on the track prior to the Whitney like they often do before feature races.

I did not make any particular observations about what the track crew did prior to the Whitney. The track had been harrowed most of the day, but was sealed prior to the Diana, and subsequently "re-opened." Whether that may have had an impact on the glibness of the track, I can't say.

The only comment that I have on the figures is that the problem seems to stem from the comparison of the Whitney to the Go For Wand. To my eye, the Go For Wand was a pretty ugly race, and the winner still got the 9F in 1:49, the second fastest running of the race since the Maskette was transferred to Saratoga in 1994 and renamed after Go For Wand. As so often happens, horses don't set track records, but the glibness of the racing surface results in track records. The final times for the Vanderbilt (only Speightstown, Prospect Bay and Five Star Day had run faster times than Diabolical) and the modest group of NY-bred maidens in the last race suggest that the track was playing faster than par at the end of Saturday's card. Perhaps that explains why a track record was set by a very talented horse that ran a very big race.

[mes5107]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

Dick Jerardi wrote "Story behind Lawyer Ron's 116 Beyer"
on Monday. To get a look on the drf.com website, you have to be a subscriber. So I can't leave the link here.
I can tell you all, this is a very typical adjustment from BSF, in this situation.
This is something I have taken advantage of, at the windows more than a half dozen occassions in the last 3 years. A big reason, I won't take their figures seriously, and haven't for more than 8 years now.

Basically, the article says that Mark Hopkins, who creates the Beyers at Saratoga, made a judgement call. If he gives Lawyer Ron a 123, which the variant for the day called for, then the next few horses behind him would have made some big improvements in Beyers as well, namely Wanderin Boy at 113 and Diamond Stripes at 111. Wanderin Boy's 113 would have matched a career high earned at the old lightning fast dirt Keeneland and Diamond Stripes would have improved from his career high of 106.

I don't understand how this was thought to be so improbable, though. Wanderin Boy ran a great race in the Whitney and I thought that Beyer Speed Figures took into account the speed of the racetrack, even if it is a speed favoring Keeneland of old. Diamond Stripes was a lightly raced 4 year old that had run 106-105-104 in his last three with not-so-great trips. It seems to be a good bet that he would improve this time out as he is still developing. Both of these horses were most likely being trained to give a top performance at the Whitney as well.

I understand that creating figures is not always black and white, but the "there's no way these horses improved" argument doesn't exactly fit here.

[King Glorious]

I do not like that judgments are being published as facts. These judgements have too much of an effect on what the wagering public does. What if his judgement would have been to stick with the 123 and they had published that? U all know that the difference between the 123 and the 116 might be the difference between whether he's 8/5 in his next race or 3/5. This stuff is too important to rely on one person's judgement, IMO. It's dangerous. While, I'm not suggesting that his own wagering interests might be furthered by issuing a specific number, I can't help but feel like by doing it this way, u leave yourself open to people wondering if that's the case. One of my favorite quotes says "flee all appearance of evil." Not all evil only but even the appearance of it.