Del Mar - Initial thoughts?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

I only wagered on the first three races on opening day and had great success.

Hopefully the track will favor people like me who can't handicap.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

That sums up my first thought on watching the 7th.

[philcski]

Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.

Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...

[Zaf]

Nakatani seems to be hot .

[Riot]

Handicappers develop individual style. I think we find the most success at tracks that play into one's methodology of handicapping (the manner in which we anticipate how races will run, interpret stats and data, etc.)

There are quite accomplished handicappers who don't care to wager on turf, or on maidens, etc., because they simply don't find success there. We say, "I just can't read that," so avoid it. Synthetic is just another varient.

I think one's enjoyment of wagering (financial success) at a particular location is more dependent upon that location (surface, type of race, population of horses) slotting comfortably into our individual style of handicapping than we probably realize.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

My opinion of polytrack so far has nothing to do with handicapping judgements.

It hasn't appeared on the circuits I've always really focused on.

Not all handicappers love horse racing, in fact, most don't. I love watching top class horse racing on both original surfaces. I'm a fan of quite a few different sports...but I would unquestionably watch a top class race I didn't have a bet in, before any different sport.

If a top class horse race on polytrack I had no bet in was running the same time a competitive bowling match was in late frames....I'd have a very tough decision on my hands.....and bowling is probably my 9th favorite sport to watch.

[Riot]

If a top class horse race on polytrack I had no bet in was running the same time a competitive bowling match was in late frames....I'd have a very tough decision on my hands.....and bowling is probably my 9th favorite sport to watch

What would bowlers do if rather than wooden, waxed lanes, they had to deal with a new, synthetic surface intended to even out the play of the lane throughout?

Maybe they'd all come over to horse racing (after the late-running bowling tourney is over and the Grade 1 can be televised )

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Riot

Handicappers develop individual style. I think we find the most success at tracks that play into one's methodology of handicapping (the manner in which we anticipate how races will run, interpret stats and data, etc.)

There are quite accomplished handicappers who don't care to wager on turf, or on maidens, etc., because they simply don't find success there. We say, "I just can't read that," so avoid it. Synthetic is just another varient.

I think one's enjoyment of wagering (financial success) at a particular location is more dependent upon that location (surface, type of race, population of horses) slotting comfortably into our individual style of handicapping than we probably realize.

I agree with all your points about polytrack.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agree with all your points about polytrack.

it's the same track for all so no problemo

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by philcski

Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.

Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...

My recommendation for a first trip to Del Mar is to not take the wagering too seriously. Just soak up the atmosphere, and play the races without getting too serious on the cash invested.

Del Mar is too special of an experience to have "marred" by regretted lost wagers. That was my tactic in my days there last August.....played fun and light. Last day I opened the wallet a little wider after I had already chalked the trip up to "great."

http://www.bullysdelmar.com/

I truly have no vested interest in this place, but if one likes to have tasty dinners and appetizers in an ultra casual atmosphere up until midnight, I highly recommend. Hungry one night about 11PM, my wife and I ventured in. With a glass of Napa cabernet, the sauteed mushrooms and onion soup really hit the spot. My wife raved about her very reasonably priced steak. Besides the good food, there is a very appropriate amount of "horsey stuff" in the decor.

Makes me wanna go back down there!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

My recommendation for a first trip to Del Mar is to not take the wagering too seriously. Just soak up the atmosphere, and play the races without getting too serious on the cash invested.

Del Mar is too special of an experience to have "marred" by regretted lost wagers. That was my tactic in my days there last August.....played fun and light. Last day I opened the wallet a little wider after I had already chalked the trip up to "great."

http://www.bullysdelmar.com/

I truly have no vested interest in this place, but if one likes to have tasty dinners and appetizers in an ultra casual atmosphere up until midnight, I highly recommend. Hungry one night about 11PM, my wife and I ventured in. With a glass of Napa cabernet, the sauteed mushrooms and onion soup really hit the spot. My wife raved about her very reasonably priced steak. Besides the good food, there is a very appropriate amount of "horsey stuff" in the decor.

Makes me wanna go back down there!

Great advice, thanks. I'm leaning towards that approach anyways, probably never a good idea to go full bore into a new track anyways and with the Poly it's completely foreign.

[Riot]

I'd like to hear your position on pace....and how to judge it.

DrugS, I'm not avoiding your question, just trying to get back to the generality of, "Are synthetic surfaces the work of the devil incarnate, or not?"

... The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

I see it slightly differently: yes, if one has a horse entered over their head, that has to be carried and nursed to the finish line

How fast did Zee Topper run her final three furlongs over the artificial surface, closing to win? One can obtain speed on artificial surfaces, if one truely has a turn of foot. That horse stood out over the rest of her field on ability, and demonstrated it.

The male division didn't apparently have any horses with equal dominant ability. On some dirt tracks, the 7-1 shot could have indeed hung on to win - the "dream trip", as described.

But I think the description of "dream trip" says it all. Does this horse deserve to win at this class and distance?

The polytrack exposed it for what it was - a horse that can't gallop 12's and hold on for the distance it was entered at. It collapsed to a canter in the final two furlongs, and was readily passed by other horses that weren't very speedy, either.

Maybe the horses in this race truely belong in a lesser class?

Speed - true natural turn of foot - has wired and won at Keeneland, Arlington, Turfway, Woodbine, Hollywood, in even in Europe. The jocks riding truely good horses will use their horses speed and style of running to their advantage, and figure it out. The jocks on horses of lesser ability will have a harder time covering that up, no matter how slow they go.

Look at Sumwon's last race at Arlington - a duel between a front-runner running good fractions and accelerating at the end, and a mid-pack closer, coming down to an exciting stretch duel and ending a neck apart. Good races happen on artificial surfaces - if the horses are truely good.

Some horses, it turns out, have been carried by their tracks. They have speed in their pedigree, but no stamina (and I'm not talking route distance). Look at horses that won on the lead on Keeneland's rock-hard dirt rail, that couldn't repeat that performance elsewhere.

There are horses we thought had a certain amount of speed or class that are now being exposed, on synthetic surfaces, as not quite what we thought they were. And it appears it may be a rather significant segment of the breed.

That's my opinion on synthetic - your actual mileage may vary

[Riot]

The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

Can we compare times on turf to times on dirt? Times at Kee (old dirt surface) to times for same distance at Calder?

Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

Yes - they found out they didn't have as much horse as they thought Happens every first Saturday in May, too ....

Cannon made a comment last Polythread, I believe, thought he said his impression training was that horses do not tire over it as readily as dirt (opposite of what I think I observe)

We're speed-crazy (2-year-old in training sales supports this contention). Look at the times for all distances over the past 100 years, how they improved to a certain extent, then stayed relatively stagnant.

It's not how fast you run, what matters is that you are fastest that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Riot

Can we compare times on turf to times on dirt? Times at Kee (old dirt surface) to times for same distance at Calder?

When you compare that 47 1/5th fraction (FOR 10K CLAIMING FILLIES!) to the 50 3/5th fraction (for older males in a 75K ALW race) --- you are comparing fractions run on the same day over the same track.

Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?

[Riot]

Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?

Absolute raw time is not that important to my handicapping.

Edit: that statement is as overtly simplistic as it seems, DrugS, in the sense that I don't particularly care what raw times are - I just want to find the fastest horse that day, that track. The discussions by the professional figure makers (Brown, Beyer, etc) last year regarding how they were going to deal with artificial surfaces within the context of their figure making are obviously critical to those of us who use those products.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, but you brought up comparing different tracks and different surfaces.

The fractions I compared, occured on the same surface, at the same track, on the same day.

[Riot]

As a veterinarian, I fully embrace and support the use of artificial surfaces as safer for racing, and I'll hold that opinion unless overwhelming evidence to the contrary appears at some future time (which I doubt, based upon history of use in other countries. But other countries are not the US).

Certainly I expect that viewpoint to influence my acceptance of same from a wagering standpoint. But I still see the varients inherent within artificial surfaces as just another handicapping opportunity

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Cool.

I'd like to hear your position on pace....and how to judge it.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by Riot

As a veterinarian, I fully embrace and support the use of artificial surfaces as safer for racing, and I'll hold that opinion unless overwhelming evidence to the contrary appears at some future time (which I doubt, based upon history of use in other countries. But other countries are not the US).

Certainly I expect that viewpoint to influence my acceptance of same from a wagering standpoint. But I still see the varients inherent within artificial surfaces as just another handicapping opportunity

I'm not a vet but I hold the same opinion.

I've heard that Arlington's field sizes have increased substantially. I'll be interested to see if that's the case at Del Mar too, look forward to seeing some figures.

I'm jealous of everyone who has all-weather tracks, here we have to race on swampy turf all winter. It's not fun.