Good Luck "Team DT"

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by pointman

10 pnt, I respect your opinion and believe you have every right to state it. However, all I am saying is that those of us that are part of this partnership have every right to be excited about this horse. She has improved leaps and bounds since getting into Chuck's hands and there is still room for more improvement. I doubt she increased her Beyer today, but given that she lost training a few weeks ago, was coming off a layoff, and considering the trip she got, she ran a terrific race.

As far as the sarcasm of outrunning her odds, she had no business opening up at 2-5. Regardless, I believe that there is better ahead for her and if she can learn to relax more and change her leads correctly, there is certainly much better in her future.

i think this is a fair post......she has definately been a "10 pnt move up" in this barn......I thought she was a horrid underlay at 7/5, and since she lost want I right?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

i think this is a fair post......she has definately been a "10 pnt move up" in this barn......I thought she was a horrid underlay at 7/5, and since she lost want I right?

Fair enough, you do deserve credit for that. Certainly you handicapped this race without bias and I respect the opinions of others, hell no one is right in this game all the time, not even close. Understand, though, that those of us that are a part of this venture are a bit biased, as any owner is. I never thought she was a lock today and I was worried about her being a bit short off the layoff. That being said, I still think she was the best horse in the race and the 6 got a dream trip, but I have been around this game long enough (though mostly standardbreds) to know that you can be the best and lose. Still, you look at her last three races and the only conclusion that can be made is that she is a real competitor who wants to win, which will happen sooner or later.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pointman

she is a real competitor who wants to win, which will happen sooner or later.

She certainly COULD win sooner or later. But you never know what will happen.
I think it is important to enjoy these exciting money-winning performances, and not spend too much time focusing on the possible pot of gold (the winners' circle) that might not ever come.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I thought she was a horrid underlay at 7/5, and since she lost want I right?

IMO, there are two reasons that you are NOT "right". First, it's very shaky to use a race to make conclusions about the odds of that race. It's a mentality that leads to thinking that the only outcome was the actual outcome. ie, the winner had a 100% chance to win the race and the rest of the field had a 0% chance to win. The outcome of a race can support or undermine a pre-race hypothesis, but it's dangerous to push that reasoning too far.

The 2nd reason I think you are not "right" is that even if you DO use the actual race to justify or reject the odds, Sumwon's performance does not invite any 2nd guessing of her odds. Sumwon's odds of 7-5 mean she would have needed a 42% (=5/12) chance to win to break even. Also, because of the 17% track take, Sumwon's 7-5 corresponds to 35% of the pool being bet on her. In other words, if Sumwon had a 35% chance to win that race, then she was neither an overlay or an underlay. (I assume an "underlay" means that you are suffering MORE than the track take.)

Do you really think that the race proved she had less than a 35% chance to win? If so, where did you expect a 35% chance horse to finish those 65% of the time when it doesn't win? Just a nose behind, and not a whole half-length?

btw, I'm not disputing your assertion that Sumwon was an underlay. (I don't have an opinion on that, because I didn't cap the race myself.) I'm disputing your assertion that the outcome of the race itself somehow shows that you were right.

--Dunbar

PS--congrats to the owners and to Cannon Shell. It's truly remarkable what you've accomplished so far!