Entries are up! Sumwonlovesyou July 11th

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The 10 post wins at a 20% rate this meet. Good for Sumwon!

how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.

The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).

Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?

That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.

Weird that it is only 8% from the 8 post. Shows how statistically insignificant those numbers usually are. Once they see the fan club Sumwon is bringing we might just get those six scratches.

[BillW]

Note the "outside" post

in field sizes 1 thru 10 on poly @ 1 mile:

151 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    151       26      17.22    $0.85       4.0   1.16  0.87
     1-3    453       77      17.00    $1.03       5.1   1.15  1.12
     4-6    422       57      13.51    $0.61       3.5   0.91  0.78
     7-9    150       16      10.67    $0.64       5.1   0.72  1.12
   10&up      8        3      37.50    $2.30       6.5   2.53  1.43
 Outside    151       30      19.87    $1.18       5.1   1.34  1.12

Field size up to 9:

143 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    143       26      18.18    $0.90       4.0   1.21  0.87
     1-3    429       74      17.25    $1.06       5.1   1.15  1.13
     4-6    398       55      13.82    $0.63       3.6   0.92  0.78
     7-9    126       14      11.11    $0.71       5.4   0.74  1.19
   10&up      0        0       0.00    $0.00       0.0   0.00  0.00
 Outside    143       27      18.88    $1.12       4.9   1.26  1.08

and field size up to 8:

127 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post   Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI     Avg Odds  IV   PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    127       23      18.11    $0.91       4.0   1.15  0.94
     1-3    381       66      17.32    $1.00       4.8   1.10  1.11
     4-6    350       52      14.86    $0.68       3.6   0.95  0.84
     7-9     78        9      11.54    $0.69       5.0   0.74  1.15
   10&up      0        0       0.00    $0.00       0.0   0.00  0.00
 Outside    127       25      19.69    $1.11       4.7   1.25  1.08

Looks like it's not insurmountable