Corinthian or Bernardini

Originally Posted by pgardn

God I think I will throw up. Really, this statement is absolutely nauseating.

Horses like Smarty Jones and Funny Cide are loved because they are not deemed blue bloods.

I consider breeding higher quality horses to add a greater dynamic to racing(which is what Bernardini has a real chance to do...remember, he will get all of Goldolphins best mares that are from the Northern Dancer sireline) is 'better for racing' (as he quoted in making his point) than the attention and notice the sport got for Barbaro....would you really argue that? A casual racing fan probably won't remember who won the '06 Derby in ten years...just a fact....it would take a hint such as "the horse that broke his leg" - and THAT is what they will associate Barabaro with...that is just the cold, hard facts man...

Additionally, horse players who wager on the sport make the game go round, not casual horse fans that only care to watch the Derby and MAYBE the Breeders' Cup....As a very involved horse player who is consistantly supporting this game, I want to see dynamic race horses that go on top make a significant imapct on the breed....I want to bet the future stars out of the regally-bred and talented Bernardini...that is what the lifeblood of out industry - the gambler - wants...

I'm not saying that Barbaro DOES NOT have the impact that Bernardini does or will, but my point is that it is too early to say one way or the other and that you could make a very strong point for Bernardini here......that is my point and its only an opinion....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I consider breeding higher quality horses to add a greater dynamic to racing(which is what Bernardini has a real chance to do...remember, he will get all of Goldolphins best mares that are from the Northern Dancer sireline) is 'better for racing' (as he quoted in making his point) than the attention and notice the sport got for Barbaro....would you really argue that?

I agree with a lot of what you've written in this thread, but the correlation of great horse to great offspring is too weak to get excited about Bernardini's future as a sire. Nor do I agree that there is much need for another top sire, unless that sire is going to pass on durability. With 4 races under his belt, it's too soon to speculate whether Bernardini is durable.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

A casual racing fan probably won't remember who won the '06 Derby in ten years...just a fact....it would take a hint such as "the horse that broke his leg" - and THAT is what they will associate Barabaro with...that is just the cold, hard facts man...

A casual racing fan will not be able to mention a single top sire. Nor will the fan care if the breed is perceived to be "getting faster". Besides, the most noteworthy change in the breed in the last 25 years is the apparent increase in fragility.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Additionally, horse players who wager on the sport make the game go round, not casual horse fans that only care to watch the Derby and MAYBE the Breeders' Cup....As a very involved horse player who is consistantly supporting this game, I want to see dynamic race horses that go on top make a significant imapct on the breed....I want to bet the future stars out of the regally-bred and talented Bernardini...that is what the lifeblood of out industry - the gambler - wants...

I don't think you know what the gambler wants. As a serious gambler, I want to bet horses that run frequently. If they run twice then take 6 months off, I will be up against inside information that will out-weigh my own handicapping skills. I could not care less whether I am betting on an off-spring of Bernardini or one of Grindstone. What I want is a horse who runs often enough for me to apply whatever capping insights I think give me an advantage over the public.

For that matter, I don't think I can speak for what the casual gambler wants either. I am only willing to bet when I have good reason to think I have an edge. I don't believe the casual gambler thinks in those terms. But I'm pretty certain that the typical horseplayer would not say that the breed needs another good sire.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I'm not saying that Barbaro DOES NOT have the impact that Bernardini does or will, but my point is that it is too early to say one way or the other and that you could make a very strong point for Bernardini here......that is my point and its only an opinion....

And I'm not saying which horse will have the bigger impact on racing either. I'm just finding fault with the reasoning you are using to justify Bernardini's importance.

I completely agree with you re Bernardini vs Corinthian, and also your comments re Discreet Cat.

--Dunbar

< too weak to get excited about Bernardini's future as a sire. >

WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE...I'VE BEEN STUDYING PEDIGREES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THE EDUCATED GUESS THAT HE HAS A CHANCE TO SERIOUSLY IMPACT THE BREED AND GET TOP CLASS PERFORMERS....HIS PEDIGREE AND BRILLIANCE ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT HE'LL GET ALL OF DUBAI'S BEST MARES FROM THE NORTHERN DANCER SIRELINE (because why would they support Lane's End with A.P. Indy when they can get to that blood with their own brilliant stud?)....IT IS VERY EASY TO SEE HIM BECOMING A SIRE OF SIRES - AND SIRES OF SIRES IMPACT THE GAME AS MUCH AS ANY HORSE CAN...

< Besides, the most noteworthy change in the breed in the last 25 years is the apparent increase in fragility. >

THE DAMAGE IS DONE AND THIS PROBABLY AND SADLY WILL NEVER CHANGE...THE GAME HAS EVOLVED AND BUYERS WANT PRECOCIOUS HORSES WITH LASER QUICK LOOKS AND PEDIGREES TO POTENTIALLY STRETCH...THAT IS WHAT BUYERS ARE CALLING FOR AND THAT IS WHAT SELLERS ARE GOING TO GIVE THEM....IF YOU WANT TO CHANGE THE MARKET THEN YOU MAY WANT TO START BREEDING AND SELLING SOUND ROUTE HORSES, BUT IT WON"T BE VERY PROFITABLE FOR YOU BECAUSE NOBODY WANTS SOMETHING THEY HAVE TO WAIT ON TO DEVELOPE....THAT IS JUST THE UGLY TRUTH ABOUT THE BUYER'S MARKET IN OUR GAME...HORSES ARE BRED TO BE FRAGILE NOW SO THAT THEY ARE IRONICALLY FASHIONABLE TO BUYERS....JUST THE FACTS AND IT WILL PROBABLY NEVER CHANGE...SORRY MAN, YOU NEED TO GET OVER THAT LIKE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO SAVE ON-TRACK ATTENDANCE...THAT IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE GAME THAT IS SIMPLY A THING OF THE PAST AND PROBABLY WILL NEVER CHANGE...HATE TO BREAK IT TO YOU LIKE THAT...

< I don't think you know what the gambler wants. As a serious gambler, I want to bet horses that run frequently. >

I THINK I KNOW AS WELL AS ANYBODY WHAT THE SERIOUS GAMBLER WANTS, HOWEVER I WANT TO LIVE UNTIL I'm A HUNDRED TOO, BUT HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THAT...I UNDERSTAND YOUR CONCERN, BUT THE FACT IS THAT IT WILL NEVER CHANGE BECAUSE TRAINERS AND HORSEMEN JUST DON"T CAMPAIGN HORSES LIKE THE OLD DAYS ANYMORE AND THEY WON'T CHANGE BECAUSE HORSES JUST WILL NOT GET BETTER BUILT...COLD, HARD FACT..

< But I'm pretty certain that the typical horseplayer would not say that the breed needs another good sire. >

WHY THE HELL NOT?..EVERYBODY GETS EXCITED ABOUT NEW, GOOD BLOOD IN OUR GAME....LOOK AT THE PEOPLE EXCITED ABOUT OFFICER AND JOHANNESBURG THIS YEAR, AND THE PEOPEL THAT CANNOT WAIT TO SEE VINDICATION'S BABIES SELL IN THE RING THIS YEAR AND RACE NEXT YEAR....THE GAME CAN ALWAYS NEED GOOD, NEW BLOOD....ALWAYS...A.P. INDY WON't BE AROUND FOREVER AND WE NEED HORSES LIKE MINESHAFT AND BERNARDINI TO CARRY THAT LEGACY AND BLOODLINE....JUST LOOK AT SEATTLE SLEW NOW...HE IS DEAD AND NOW HE ONLY HAS A COUPLE SONS THAT HAVE ANY PROMISE OF BEING GOOD SIRES TO CARRY HIS BLOOD ALONG FOR GENERATIONS TO COME AND THEY ARE A.P. INDY AND VINDICATION AND THE REST OF HIS SONS ARE LITTLE PLAYERS.... THERE IS DEFINATELY A REASON TO GET EXCITED ABOUT NEW DYNAMIC STALLIONS...

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, Joel, the actual " gambler ", or the person betting enough money to actually help support this game, is on average pretty unconcerned with the higher level racing, and thus these top horses that run infrequently don't really affect us.

It's much more about the 4th race on a Thursday than it is about the Travers. The Travers may be a lot more interesting to talk about but it is highly unlikely to be as interesting to bet as the Thursday mid day race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Joel, the actual " gambler ", or the person betting enough money to actually help support this game, is on average pretty unconcerned with the higher level racing, and thus these top horses that run infrequently don't really affect us.

It's much more about the 4th race on a Thursday than it is about the Travers. The Travers may be a lot more interesting to talk about but it is highly unlikely to be as interesting to bet as the Thursday mid day race.

Yeah, but check out the handle on the feature races on every card throughout America and compare it to just the average $10K claimers running in the 4th on a Thurs. afternoon at Thistledowns....the handle is astronomically bigger for the bigger races, which means that thgere is defiantely a coorelation between the dynamic nature of better racing and betting behavior.....just pure statistics....if people wanted to bet bad horses that run against each other every two weeks all of the time then Calder would have the biggest handle in our game because that is what they are good at, however, that is just not the case...

Bettors love to bet on races that 'matter' and they want to bet on good horses....If you play simo on any day from Thursday - Sunday, you can find 10-20 good races to bet on and be well-entertained and occupied without having to bet the 2nd at Fonner Park because it is the only thing to do....customers have shown the pattern that they prefer to bet QUALITY races and not the cheap nags.....Hell, look at the Derby...if Churchill Downs were to not run that one single race then they would lose over $200 million....Quality does matter and good horses breed quality...Obviously, quantity plays into it as well, but there is defiantely a handle pattern that suggests strongly that quality racing is heads and shoulders more profitable than the full field of maiden claimers assembled at Fairmont...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Yeah, but check out the handle on the feature races on every card throughout America and compare it to just the average $10K claimers running in the 4th on a Thurs. afternoon at Thistledowns....the handle is astronomically bigger for the bigger races, which means that thgere is defiantely a coorelation between the dynamic nature of better racing and betting behavior.....just pure statistics....if people wanted to bet bad horses that run against each other every two weeks all of the time then Calder would have the biggest handle in our game because that is what they are good at, however, that is just not the case...

Bettors love to bet on races that 'matter' and they want to bet on good horses....If you play simo on any day from Thursday - Sunday, you can find 10-20 good races to bet on and be well-entertained and occupied without having to bet the 2nd at Fonner Park because it is the only thing to do....customers have shown the pattern that they prefer to bet QUALITY races and not the cheap nags.....Hell, look at the Derby...if Churchill Downs were to not run that one single race then they would lose over $200 million....Quality does matter and good horses breed quality...Obviously, quantity plays into it as well, but there is defiantely a handle pattern that suggests strongly that quality racing is heads and shoulders more profitable than the full field of maiden claimers assembled at Fairmont...

thats why wed thru sunday is the time to play/...and a side note..th only time to play arlington is million days..

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Joel, the actual " gambler ", or the person betting enough money to actually help support this game, is on average pretty unconcerned with the higher level racing, and thus these top horses that run infrequently don't really affect us.

It's much more about the 4th race on a Thursday than it is about the Travers. The Travers may be a lot more interesting to talk about but it is highly unlikely to be as interesting to bet as the Thursday mid day race.

Perhaps, then, there is no such thing as a particular animal being good for the game.....or we need to differentiate between what's good for the bettors (those who don't care about the horses and just like to gamble) and what's good for the actual racing fans.

I'm sure hardcore gamblers do not give a fig about Bernardini...or Barbaro or any other really top horse, as long as they continue picking winners (at Belmont or Finger Lakes or wherever racing is conducted). However, actual racing fans, who care about the horses and follow the sport (and don't necessarily bet) like to see good horses....that's what I mean by Bernardini being good for the sport (especially after Barbaro's breakdown). I could be dead wrong about him having any effect on fans or the sport in general; in that case, I will just have to hope he wins big simply because he's a favorite of mine.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

< But I'm pretty certain that the typical horseplayer would not say that the breed needs another good sire. >

WHY THE HELL NOT?..EVERYBODY GETS EXCITED ABOUT NEW, GOOD BLOOD IN OUR GAME....LOOK AT THE PEOPLE EXCITED ABOUT OFFICER AND JOHANNESBURG THIS YEAR, AND THE PEOPEL THAT CANNOT WAIT TO SEE VINDICATION'S BABIES SELL IN THE RING THIS YEAR AND RACE NEXT YEAR....THE GAME CAN ALWAYS NEED GOOD, NEW BLOOD....ALWAYS...A.P. INDY WON't BE AROUND FOREVER AND WE NEED HORSES LIKE MINESHAFT AND BERNARDINI TO CARRY THAT LEGACY AND BLOODLINE....JUST LOOK AT SEATTLE SLEW NOW...HE IS DEAD AND NOW HE ONLY HAS A COUPLE SONS THAT HAVE ANY PROMISE OF BEING GOOD SIRES TO CARRY HIS BLOOD ALONG FOR GENERATIONS TO COME AND THEY ARE A.P. INDY AND VINDICATION AND THE REST OF HIS SONS ARE LITTLE PLAYERS.... THERE IS DEFINATELY A REASON TO GET EXCITED ABOUT NEW DYNAMIC STALLIONS...

Please. Do you think 1 person in 1000 could tell you who Johannesburg and Officer were (or are). I don't think 1 person in 100 at the track could tell you.

Do you really think the fact that Johannesburg and Officer have been successful sires has any impact on the appeal of the sport to 99% of the people who bet? I would be extremely surprised to learn that the success of a stallion like Johannesburg or Officer would bring a single extra fan to horseracing or a single extra bettor to the track.

Maybe you are talking about excitement among owners. I am talking about excitement among bettors (both casual and serious) and among casual fans.

--Dunbar

< Please. Do you think 1 person in 1000 could tell you who Johannesburg and Officer were (or are). I don't think 1 person in 100 at the track could tell you. >

WHERE IN THE HELL DO YOU BET???...GOOD GOD, SIR...YES, YOU DON"T NEED TO BE PLAYING THE HORSES IF YOU HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT SIRES AND PEDIGREES...HWO IN THE HELL DO YOU THINK PEOPLE BET FIRST-TIME STRARTERS???....DO YOU PLAY HORSES AT AN ALASKAN OTB???

< I would be extremely surprised to learn that the success of a stallion like Johannesburg or Officer would bring a single extra fan to horseracing or a single extra bettor to the track. >

WHO GIVES ****?...THAT IS NOT MY POINT...THE REGULAR HORSE PLAYERS CARE, AT LEAST ALL THE ONES I KNOW, AND THEY ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE THE LIFE BLOOD OF THIS SPORT.....WOW, DO YOU REALLY KEEP UP WITH THIS SPORT ANY, OR ARE YOU A CASUAL FAN? I CAN'T SEE TO WHERE ANYBODY COULD REALLY SAY THAT SIRES AND PEDIGREES DON'T MATTER AND THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY SAYING....SO, THERE ARE NO DIFFERENCE IN WHO THE SIRES ARE????...HUH?

< Maybe you are talking about excitement among owners. I am talking about excitement among bettors (both casual and serious) and among casual fans. >

WOW, THIS IS HORRENDOUS COMMENTARY!!!

[ateamstupid]

Did I miss something? When did Cunningham forget how to quote people, and when did his caps lock button get stuck?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Did I miss something? When did Cunningham forget how to quote people, and when did his caps lock button get stuck?

That is how I prefer to do it because that is how I have to do it on another board that I'm on...But nice smart-ass comment anyway...

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Did I miss something? When did Cunningham forget how to quote people, and when did his caps lock button get stuck?

Thats the ole ateam I remember. Ready to correct.

Cunningham ole chap. You bet first time starters based on pedigree? Do you ever watch them work. I take work and movement much more serioulsy than genetic dice, which is what it is if you really know genetics.

I will mention three terms since I know you help with picking horses and love pedigree stuff. I cannot see how anyone in the business could not be humbled by these three terms.

1. Sexual reproduction (takes two to tango)
2. Indepedent assortment of chromosomes
3. Crossing over

Dont these send chills down your spine?

And one question that no one on the other board answered. Why, from a biological point of view, is it more likely that a mare has more influence on stamina in offspring that the male?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

< Please. Do you think 1 person in 1000 could tell you who Johannesburg and Officer were (or are). I don't think 1 person in 100 at the track could tell you. >

WHERE IN THE HELL DO YOU BET???...GOOD GOD, SIR...YES, YOU DON"T NEED TO BE PLAYING THE HORSES IF YOU HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT SIRES AND PEDIGREES...HWO IN THE HELL DO YOU THINK PEOPLE BET FIRST-TIME STRARTERS???....DO YOU PLAY HORSES AT AN ALASKAN OTB???

I bet very few races on a card. I won't bet first time starters unless I have inside information. I hope you are doing the same.

But that's not what I thought we were talking about. I thought we were talking about your opinion that a new hot sire is REALLY GOOD for horseracing. As if making the breed faster (and probably yet more fragile) is going to improve ANYTHING. (See? I know how to find my caps key, too.)

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

< I would be extremely surprised to learn that the success of a stallion like Johannesburg or Officer would bring a single extra fan to horseracing or a single extra bettor to the track. >

WHO GIVES ****?...THAT IS NOT MY POINT...THE REGULAR HORSE PLAYERS CARE, AT LEAST ALL THE ONES I KNOW, AND THEY ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE THE LIFE BLOOD OF THIS SPORT.....WOW, DO YOU REALLY KEEP UP WITH THIS SPORT ANY, OR ARE YOU A CASUAL FAN? I CAN'T SEE TO WHERE ANYBODY COULD REALLY SAY THAT SIRES AND PEDIGREES DON'T MATTER AND THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY SAYING....SO, THERE ARE NO DIFFERENCE IN WHO THE SIRES ARE????...HUH?

What I'm saying is that the average horseplayer won't give a damn whether there is another hot sire or not. And yes, I'm saying that if you poll the people in line at the betting window, only a small fraction will be able to say who the better sire is, Grindstone or Thunder Gulch. That's NOT the same as saying that pedigree isn't important in maiden races.

I suspect you hang out mostly with owners and others interested in the buying and selling of horses. These are not providing the bulk of the money at the betting windows.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

< Maybe you are talking about excitement among owners. I am talking about excitement among bettors (both casual and serious) and among casual fans. >

WOW, THIS IS HORRENDOUS COMMENTARY!!!

Sorry you feel that way. Maybe the tracks can capture some of the excitement you perceive by holding a free cap giveaway with "Johannesburg" or "Officer" on the caps. I'm sure that would be immensely exciting to the bettors.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I bet very few races on a card. I won't bet first time starters unless I have inside information. I hope you are doing the same.

But that's not what I thought we were talking about. I thought we were talking about your opinion that a new hot sire is REALLY GOOD for horseracing. As if making the breed faster (and probably yet more fragile) is going to improve ANYTHING. (See? I know how to find my caps key, too.)



What I'm saying is that the average horseplayer won't give a damn whether there is another hot sire or not. And yes, I'm saying that if you poll the people in line at the betting window, only a small fraction will be able to say who the better sire is, Grindstone or Thunder Gulch. That's NOT the same as saying that pedigree isn't important in maiden races.

I suspect you hang out mostly with owners and others interested in the buying and selling of horses. These are not providing the bulk of the money at the betting windows.



Sorry you feel that way. Maybe the tracks can capture some of the excitement you perceive by holding a free cap giveaway with "Johannesburg" or "Officer" on the caps. I'm sure that would be immensely exciting to the bettors.

--Dunbar

Look Dunbar, the bottomline is that there IS a coorelation between breeding and a horse's production on the track and if you don't believe that then why do people pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy? Come on dude...you know better than that....the savvy horse players understnd pedigree VERY well....ask any real serious and intelligent horseplayer...I'm sticking to my opinion (and most other serious horse players that I know opinions) that new stallions ARE important to the industry......I still don't understand what leg you think you have stand on in this argument???...Your basis is pretty weak IMO, but keep NOT factroing in pedigrees into your handicapping formula...PLEASE!!!...I love making money off of people like you