Trainer Cycles

[ShadowRoll]

Many here might already know this, but The Handicapper's Edge site from Brisnet.com has a feature called "at a glance" that details (for several tracks but not every track) up-to-date payout averages, track biases (or at least the winning percentages of gate-to-wire winners and the relative success of different running styles at different distances) and "hot" trainers and jocks.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Many here might already know this, but The Handicapper's Edge site from Brisnet.com has a feature called "at a glance" that details (for several tracks but not every track) up-to-date payout averages, track biases (or at least the winning percentages of gate-to-wire winners and the relative success of different running styles at different distances) and "hot" trainers and jocks.

Thanks Shadow.
So, who are your "hot" trainers?

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

So, who are your "hot" trainers?

I don't totally discount the "hot barn" theory, because I'm a strong believer in cycles, but unless I also know that the trainer just got a new, more capable assistant, or that the trainer just picked up a new, wealthier owner (and now has better stock), or that the trainer just got married (or has some other reason to approach his or her job with renewed enthusiasm), I tend to use "hot" status only as a tie-breaker if I'm stuck on who to back.

Also, a trainer might have won 10 out of his last 15 starts, but without taking the time to go back and look at those races, I can't give this statistic much weight. If the 10 he won were all claimers, and the 5 he lost were all maiden races, and I'm capping a maiden race today, the trainer's "hotness" is pretty much irrelevant.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

I don't totally discount the "hot barn" theory, because I'm a strong believer in cycles, but unless I also know that the trainer just got a new, more capable assistant, or that the trainer just picked up a new, wealthier owner (and now has better stock), or that the trainer just got married (or has some other reason to approach his or her job with renewed enthusiasm), I tend to use "hot" status only as a tie-breaker if I'm stuck on who to back.

Also, a trainer might have won 10 out of his last 15 starts, but without taking the time to go back and look at those races, I can't give this statistic much weight. If the 10 he won were all claimers, and the 5 he lost were all maiden races, and I'm capping a maiden race today, the trainer's "hotness" is pretty much irrelevant.

Shadow,
You have put out insightful stuff. Thanks.
I'm not disagreeing with you.
As I said earlier, it's "short term".
An old surfer guy once told me, "Catch the wave, ride it out."
I'd be interested to hear what others think.
Again, thanks for your input.

[ShadowRoll]

On the other hand...Michael Catalano, Jr.