Ed Fountaine's article from todays NY Post

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm betting against Curlin, not because I think he will "bounce", but because I think he will be overbet relative to Hard Spun. If Curlin wins the race, at least now I'll have the satisfying consolation of knowing another nail has been driven into the "bounce" coffin. I may even have to change my avatar.

However, like Dracula and dosage, "bounce" is hard to kill!

--Dunbar

I am far from an expert on Thorograph and their whole bounce theory. But I believe they have done a ton of research and they have a ton of data to support their theory. It sounds like you are saying that their whole theory is incorrect. What do you base this on? I know you are a numbers guy and you like to rely on empirical data. Have you done any research or do you have any data that debunks their theory?

With regard to dosage, it is far from perfect and it may or may not be a good indicator of which horses will be able to win the Derby. But dosage is still a very useful tool. There is a very high correlation between a horse's dosage and how far they want to run. The higher a horse's dosage, the shorther they want to run. Like anything else, the correlation is not perfect. It is not 1.00. But is probably .6-.7 or something in that vicinity. If you are at a sale and you are not that familiar with a horse's breeding, checking the dosage can be useful. I wouldn't rely solely on dosage, but I think it can be useful.