My Belmont Analysis

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

[Scav]

Maybe I worded it wrong, but I really don't think he wins, but I have zero idea who will win, but I just don't think he does it....I fully expect a dull effort from him, maybe a one paced 3rd.

I might consider a win wager on Tiago, even though I can't stand Smith, how much trouble can he get in on a closer in a 7 horse race.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

Right.....I don't.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right.....I don't.

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think for the most part there is a very answerable reason why horses run well and why they run poorly. I prefer to use logic.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scav

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

I don't think it is fair to compare the two scenarios. In his "monster effort" the defense simply did not double team him and Lebron went unmolested to the basket time and time again. In Lebron's "bounce" game he was double/triple teamed from the opening tip. The defense adjusted, and he had a good ball handling game with some nice assists - just not gaudy numbers. ( they won )...their is no defense in horse racing, unless you call race dynamics defense.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

Then bet him.

Im not at 4/5.

Whoops.

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.


I need to read before I type.