Rags To Riches - What will her odds be?

[timmgirvan]

Originally Posted by Cardus

What would her odds be? Who would ride her?

WOW! a transgendered horse? Who'd a thunk it?

[docicu3]

A better question would be how high will her odds have to be to bet her to win.
Myself if at 5 minutes to post she is > or = to 3:1 than she's a straight win bet and gets tri key money from me.

If by some act of God she goes off 5:1 or higher with a minute to post then additional cash would have to be bet on her to win.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by docicu3

A better question would be how high will her odds have to be to bet her to win.
Myself if at 5 minutes to post she is > or = to 3:1 than she's a straight win bet and gets tri key money from me.

If by some act of God she goes off 5:1 or higher with a minute to post then additional cash would have to be bet on her to win.

I'd need 5/1 before I'd even consider it. I'm just having a tough time putting her chances too far ahead of Tiago. It starts with Hard Spun. If (and it is a big if) he can ration his speed early he can easily run by Slew's Tizzy after a mile and win it. If not then Curlin should be there to blow by and win impressively. The only scenario where I can see Rags winning is if Hard Spun goes too fast too early and Curlin makes an early move trying to stop him from getting away. Then both stagger down the stretch while Rags, Tiago, and/or Imawildandcrazyguy pass them by. The problem is I don't feel like there is a ton to separate those three in picking up the pieces so don't want any of them at low odds.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd need 5/1 before I'd even consider it. I'm just having a tough time putting her chances too far ahead of Tiago.

I'm having the same problem, but readily admit that if she ran in the Santa Anita Derby, I would have liked her chances to beat Tiago and everyone else that day.

If Curlin proves to be mortal and finally shows some signs of fatigue, I think she has as much of a chance as anyone else.