Hard Spun & Belmont Distance

[Antitrust32]

Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-

I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it. Danzig is more known for sprinters I thought. His DI is 2.67 and his CD is .66. According to http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm those numbers would make him most effective at 9 - 9 1/2 furlongs, which would compliment his run in the Derby. I dont understand how that makes him great for 12 f.

I'll go through the other horses-

Curlin DI 4.00 and CD 1.05 - bred for 6 - 7 furlongs

Rags to Riches - DI 3.00 CD .86 - bred for 7 to 9 furlongs

I'mawildncrazyguy - DI 6.00 and CD1.07 - bred for short sprints!

Tiago - DI 1.91 CD .31 - bred for 12 furlongs and beyond

Slews Tizzy - DI 2.00 CD . 67 - bred 9 - 12 furlongs

Digger - DI 4.33 CD 1.00 - Bred for eating and pooping

Time Squared - DI 3.25 CD .91 - bred for around a mile

Circular Quay - DI 2.08 CD .66 - bred 9-12 furlongs (probably wont run)


So if you are going off only pedigree, Tiago and Slews Tizzy are your guys (may want to keep them in your exotics). Granted horses dont run to their pedigree always (Curlin), but I wouldnt say Hard Spun is a lock at 12f.

I'll go through the past 10 Belmont winners and their pedigree for distance, maybe we can put things together.

Jazil - DI = 3.00 CD = 0.89 Bred for 8 - 9 furlongs

Afleet Alex - DI = 2.11 CD = 0.71 Bred for 11 furlongs

Birdstone - DI = 1.77 CD = 0.33 Bred for 12 and beyond

Empire Maker - DI = 1.88 CD = 0.42 bred for 12 and beyond

Sarava - DI = 4.50 CD = 1.00 Bred for sprints

Point Given - DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Bred for 9 furlongs or shorter

Commendable - DI = 5.00 CD = 1.07 Bred for quarter horse races

Lemon Drop Kid - DI = 2.62 CD = 0.79 Bred for 10 furlongs

Victory Gallop - DI = 3.27 CD = 0.81 Bred for a mile and 70

Touch Gold - DI = 1.82 CD = 0.46 Bred for 12 furlongs

So of the past 10 years, 1/2 of the horses were bred for 10 f or beyond.

I guess this means that pedigree really has nothing to do with the Belmont!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it.

The distance is fine with him from a pedigree standpoint---his father has sired a Belmont Stakes winner--and his mother won a minor stake at the distance of 12 furlongs (albeit on turf)

However, off of recent form, which trumps pedigree, he never really shows a race that indicates the 2.5 furlong stretchout from 9.5 furlongs to 12 furlongs will be to his benefit...if anything, it would figure to play against him, unless he is able to relax on an uncontested lead...in which case he would be VERY dangerous.

Dosage numbers are cooky....and they give me a headache. Unlike a very helpful tool like speed figures--the logic behind them isn't that sound at all...and IMO, they are fairly useless.

[byalip]

I can't shake the vision of Came Home winning the Pacific Classic when it comes to questioning whether or not Hard Spun has what it takes for the Belmont.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Just going off pedigree (I got these #'s from pedigree query)-
I am just wondering why everyone seems to think hard spun will have no problem with 12 f and is bred for it.

Hard Spun has without a doubt the best distance pedigree of any colt in the race. You can't go by dosage. Even the creator of the system says its tremendously flawed.
So here is the case for Hard Spun. His sire (Danig) sired a Preakness winner (Pine Bluff) and a Belmont winner (Danig Connection).
Far more important than that however is Hard Spun's dam-side pedigree, which is generally considered the more important side of a horse's pedigree in terms of distance. Look at the stallions in the three key positions of Hard Spun's dam-side pedigree. They are Turkoman, Alydar, and Roberto. Two of those three were multiple G1 winners at 10f and the other was a multiple G1 winner at 12f. They have all sired their share of routers as well. You can't ask for much better than that.

Now, pedigree certainly DOES matter in the Belmont. It probably matters more in this race than any other race run all year. It is important to use it as only ONE tool however. DrugS is spot on with what he says about Hard Spun. He has a great pedigree for this race, but his form will probably still prevent him from being effective at this distance. The colt doesn't seem able to relax. That trumps pedigree. The key is to find a horse that has a pedigree and (more importantly) a running style that will allow him (or perhaps this year....her) to be effective at this distance.

[letswastemoney]

Why are people so quick to dismiss the "wise guy" Kentucky Derby flop angle. It's a mile and a half race so anything can happen.

Tiago just reminds me of Birdstone. I think Birdstone also finished 7th in the Derby. Besides that, Tiago is lightly raced so who knows how good he could be?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Why are people so quick to dismiss the "wise guy" Kentucky Derby flop angle. It's a mile and a half race so anything can happen.

Tiago just reminds me of Birdstone. I think Birdstone also finished 7th in the Derby. Besides that, Tiago is lightly raced so who knows how good he could be?

I am not going to say that Tiago has no chance at all, but Birdstone had a couple things going fo him that Tiago didn't.
1) Birdstone certainly had a 12f pedigree. Tiago's isn't bad but look at Birdstone's. His pedigree (horses like Hush Dear etc.) was perfect.
2) Birdstone had alread won a major stakes race over the Belmont surface.
3) Birdstone was, in my opinion, simply a better horse. I still believe he was an underrated animal on a dry surface. He ran on a wet surface in the Derby and one of his prep races (maybe the Florida Derby? I can't remember for sure) and he ran poorly. On a dry surface though he was pretty good.
Tiago hasn't raced that many times, so maybe he will still turn out to be a good one, but I wouldn't compare him to Birdstone quite yet.