5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread

[Bigsmc]

Elmont, NY weather for tomorrow.

Mostly Sunny High
88°F

Precip
10%

Wind: W 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 46%
UV Index: 9 Very High

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Can anyone in the NE tell me if it is expected to be "fast and firm" tomorrow? Any chance of rain?

Warm (80's) and Sunny today. More of the same tomorrow. Looks like Fast and Firm.

[philcski]

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

[docicu3]

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by docicu3

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

P6 carryovers in NY are hard for me to resist when I've got the funds and impetus to play, but turf racing isn't my strength and this sequence has about 7 horses that could win each race!!

The Friday card is only slightly more manageable.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg.

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

[pmacdaddy]

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

from DRF's "Closer Look" for Race 5 (Brian Mulligan):
Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample...

Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

4th: I think the Tiger will be tough (12-1 m/l way too generous); also think Parisella's classmaster L'Oiseau d'Argent could lead 'em throughout at a decent mutuel..
5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..
6th: Justy (9-5) burned my $ last out but should go better tomorrow in back-to-back sprint scenario; got a hankering Violette's Baletti (10-1) will be good on the cut back and freshening;
7th: Flying Zee entry (2-1) looks best to me; Flightofthepelican (8-1) could very well relish surface switch for Schosberg;
8th: can make legitimate winning case for nearly all; tepid choice is KMc's Makderah (Ire) who should go better 2d start off bench under JR;
9th: Astoria Sweetheart (2-1) and Clearly a Thrill (3-1) look pretty obvious for inclusion purposes but too often the obvious don't win the $35KMCl events; Albertrani firster Katnik (4-1) may go well and wouldn't have to be much.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..

Although a very small sample, Mott's is a respectable 43% Synth/Turf. I leaning toward tossing the 6 and playing the 5,8 in this leg.

Of course, This is coming from the same guy that tossed Surf Town in the first leg of of the monster HollyPark P6

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

I strongly disagree.

Unlike Monday's virtually unhittable sequence this one is a huge favorite to be hit.

[sumitas]

hmmm, race 4 is friggin contentious...Unigold i kinda like but i need to dig deeper.
now race 7 Whateverwillbwillb seems to do better on a softer turf. tomorrow will be firm. Square Dancing did ok in 06 but is off her game this year. doesn't seem like she cared for the inner at A. she is coming in 2nd off a layoff and has put up a big turf number last year...she like the firm going on the turf. Fiddlers Pleasure, i just wonder if she doesn't love the firm going.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I strongly disagree.

Unlike Monday's virtually unhittable sequence this one is a huge favorite to be hit.

Why was it virtually unhittable the 28th?

I assume, overall, carryovers are hit 90-95% of the time, so you're probably right on tomorrow. What made Monday so different?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Why was it virtually unhittable the 28th?

I assume, overall, carryovers are hit 90-95% of the time, so you're probably right on tomorrow. What made Monday so different?

They were very contentious and open races and there was only one odds on horse the whole day. An even mildly responsible play ran into the thousands.

I told Byk Monday morning I would be shocked if it was hit.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I strongly disagree.

Unlike Monday's virtually unhittable sequence this one is a huge favorite to be hit.

Honestly, I expect someone(s) to buy a big ticket and take it down, but given the lack of obvious singles it's difficult to construct a reasonable ticket for less than $1,000-2,000 IMO.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

Guess I was wrong about this being a brutal sequence.

[philcski]

what happened to the 6 in that race? late scratch?

[sumitas]

the 7 horse broke thru the gate and ran well down the path. they brought him back and he was scratched. then i noticed that Justy was loaded just prior to the official start. the other horses must have been in the gate waiting.