EPSOM DERBY: Authorized & Dettori Score...

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

theres certainly alot of horses that wont stay or are doubtful to stay the trip. I wouldnt be too knowledgeable about breeding.. I did fancy Archipenko but seeing that he is a late May foal (May 30th) surely, thats not a good sign.

Well on pedigree this is what i would think:
Acapulco - Strong Stayer
Admiralofthefleet - non stayer
Anton Chekhov - Strong stayer
Aqaleem - Likely stayer
Arabian Gulf - Likely stayer
Archipenko - Doubtful stayer
Authorized - Likely stayer
Eagle Mountain - Should stay, but not certain
Eastern Anthem - Should stay
Kid Mambo - Non Stayer
Leander - Likely stayer
Lucarno - Should stay (but not certain about this one)
Mahler - Strong Stayer
Petara Bay - Doubtful stayer
Regime - Strong Stayer
Salford Mill - Doubtful Stayer
Soldier Of Fortune - Strong Stayer
Strategic Prince - Should stay
Yellowstone - Non Stayer

This is through dosage index of both the sire and dam sire.

For what it's worth, i don't think it matters about the foaling time. I will have a look at the stats though.

Afraid to say it doesn't look Admiralofthefleet will make the gig, he is 50's on Betfair now

[NoChanceToDance]

Foaling months of previous 10 Derby winners:

1996; Shaamit (February)
1997; Benny The Dip (January)
1998; High Rise (May)
1999; Oath (April)
2000; Sinndar (february)
2001; Galileo (march (almost april))
2002; High Chaparral (March)
2003; Kris Kin (March)
2004; North Light (March)
2005; Motivator (February)
2006; Sir Percy (January)

Maybe you're right, Brockguy. I never imagined it would matter much but looking at this, maybe it does.

March seems to be the best month for foaling a derby winner........ so i guess i won't be winning the Derby.

[NoChanceToDance]

March foaled horses in this years derby, are:

Aqaleem

and

Salford Mill

[brockguy]

Thanks for that list.. Immediately I thought Eagle Mountain wont stay (he reminds me alot of Oratorio). his dam has produced some stayers like Sulk but how many Rocks will stay 12f?? That Gosden horse is certainly interesting to say the least...

Regarding foaling date, I know the Racingpost had a write up about it about the foaling dates of horses in the Guineas.. Im sure it is less relevant for the Derby but in the back of my mind, Ill be thinking that Archipenko has just really turned 3 by Derby time..

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Thanks for that list.. Immediately I thought Eagle Mountain wont stay (he reminds me alot of Oratorio). his dam has produced some stayers like Sulk but how many Rocks will stay 12f?? That Gosden horse is certainly interesting to say the least...

Regarding foaling date, I know the Racingpost had a write up about it about the foaling dates of horses in the Guineas.. Im sure it is less relevant for the Derby but in the back of my mind, Ill be thinking that Archipenko has just really turned 3 by Derby time..

Yeah, i'm not sure about Eagle Mountain, either but the dosage stuff says he might just be able to.

I agree with you though, i think he will be this years Oratorio, do we get on for the Eclipse now?

Slightly off topic, but did you see the full sister to Giant's Causeway at the weekend? How good did she look finishing 2nd in a hot listed race over five first time out when it looked like she will be tailed off at half way!

Did we see the 1000 guineas winner of next year? I'm more than hopeful

[brockguy]

she was impressive enough, both the winner (who is for sale) and her looked very good and the time was 58 and change so thats very good for the Curragh. It was also good considering none of O'Brien's other juveniles looked decent...

If Admiral doesnt go, Im struggling to find a horse I like that'll beat Authorized....

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

she was impressive enough, both the winner (who is for sale) and her looked very good and the time was 58 and change so thats very good for the Curragh. It was also good considering none of O'Brien's other juveniles looked decent...

If Admiral doesnt go, Im struggling to find a horse I like that'll beat Authorized....

At the moment i'm struggling to find a horse that WON'T beat Authorized

Seriously, i don't fancy him. The form of his RP Trophy took another huge knock this evening with Charlie Farnsbarns getting beaten in a weak race at odds of 2/5

[brockguy]

yeah saw that.. it was an awful bet.. the Sinndar one looked very very workmanlike when winning the Lingfield race (takes after his dad!) but does anyone decent win the lingfield trial anymore?? some of the previous winners werent much..

if its soft ground, I might be interested in Soldier Of Fortune.. His form does look strong, esp if Passage walks in the Oaks..

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

yeah saw that.. it was an awful bet.. the Sinndar one looked very very workmanlike when winning the Lingfield race (takes after his dad!) but does anyone decent win the lingfield trial anymore?? some of the previous winners werent much..

if its soft ground, I might be interested in Soldier Of Fortune.. His form does look strong, esp if Passage walks in the Oaks..

The Lingfield Derby trail isn't a great race anymore, i agree...... but i never understand why because if you run well there, you can almost be sure the horse will handle Epsom. I wonder if people don't run the fancied ones there because if they don't handle Lingfield, it will mean the Derby dream is over before it has even begun........... maybe?

What i liked about the performance was that it was off the back of the Tregoning yard being 'shut down' after many of the horses were sick. He was entitled to need that run much more than most and he did it well under those circumstances. I wouldn't read much into Hearthstead Maison getting beaten next time, Lucarno is a very nice horse and the drop back in trip/slow gallop really wouldn't have helped the Mark Johnston horse.