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#1
05-22-2007, 09:59 AM
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Round 9
Fairmount Park R1 - #4 Safeforsure - 2nd - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $105 Fairmount Park R2 #7 Stefanie C (see next post) - 2nd - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $110 Fairmount Park R4 - #1 Freestyle Spirit SCR Substitute #3 Cousin Bill 3rd - paid $2.20 - Running Total = $121 Fairmount Park R6 - #1 Cat on the Grass WON - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $127 Fairmount Park R7 - #6 Stop the Race WON - paid $2.60 - Running Total = $165 Last edited by jman5581 : 05-22-2007 at 03:43 PM. 
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#4
05-22-2007, 03:47 PM
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#5
05-22-2007, 08:14 PM
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5/23
Suffolk R1 - #2 Cruisin on Faith (Out of the Money, try to figure that one out in a 5 horse field) ------Round 9------- Suffolk R8 - #5 Carlow (my first pick ran 2nd, this one ran LAST)... HOW MUCH HAVE I LOST IN TOTAL DUNBAR? THAT WOULD BE $900, BY THESE RULES. ------Round 10------- Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110 HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116 HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122 Last edited by jman5581 : 05-23-2007 at 07:37 PM.
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#7
05-24-2007, 10:35 AM
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btw, your Harlington pick would give me pause. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#8
05-24-2007, 10:52 AM
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Let's assume the rules of this experiment were 5 straight rather than 10 straight. How often would a person have to win assuming a 75% profit can be shown on average for a 5 race parlay? Over half the time?
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#10
05-24-2007, 12:27 PM
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------Round 10-------
Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110 HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116 HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122 5/24 CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128 CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166 HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174 BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218 HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305 HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336 Last edited by jman5581 : 05-24-2007 at 06:02 PM.
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#11
05-24-2007, 01:40 PM
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If X=% of time you need to win to break even, then 0.75 * X + (-1) * (1-X) = 0. because 1-X is the percent of time that you will lose. .75X + (X-1) = 0 1.75X = 1 X = 57%. That's how often you'd have to win to break even under your assumptions for 5-in-a-row. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#12
05-24-2007, 06:04 PM
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Round 10, 1 more...
------Round 10-------
Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110 HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116 HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122 CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128 CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166 HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174 BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218 HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305 HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336
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