If you are interested....

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I just don't get where justin's coming from on Hard Spun. For every horse who finishes second in the Derby off a massive top, there are just as many who run equally as well in the Preakness. This just isn't a statistically relevant trend.

I don't think it's a relevant trend either, but I do agree with Justin in that I think the Derby effort COULD have taken a bit too much out of Hard Spun. He put in a huge effort and you have to wonder how tired he is.

[justindew]

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

[justindew]

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

Mine has everything to do with him finishing second and absolutely nothing else, as I'm always looking for an edge.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

I don't like even the idea of " trends " as I think each case is different. For example, Lion Heart, who I absolutely hated in the Preakness ( to be honest I was hardly Smarmy Jones's biggest supporter either ). I felt Lion Heart's effort in the Derby was completely a result of the sloppy track, as he was on empty at the top of the stretch and the track carried him home. I assumed he would be burned up trying to deal with Smarty Jones and regardless of the final result he would be spent. To me he was essentially a miler who went further do to racetrack bias and conditions.

To me, Hard Spun is simply a horse that has run well every time he has hit the racetrack, and I don't see why that shouldn't be the case Saturday.

[tycharles01]

Question about Flying First Class


What is the farthest he has run?? or farthest he ran before dying??

[justindew]

He went 8.5F and 9F at Oaklawn.

[slotdirt]

Even if Hard Spun AND Curlin regress though, they're going to have to run with three legs to get to CP West's level. Honestly.

[justindew]

I couldn't come up with a better choice for 3rd. Plus, I can't spend all week dissing Hard Spun and Curlin, and them use them in the tri.

[Thunder Gulch]

I really like the race Hard Spun ran in the Derby, but I look at him and I see Peace Rules running back in the Preakness. Ugly business.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Even if Hard Spun AND Curlin regress though, they're going to have to run with three legs to get to CP West's level. Honestly.

C P West ran very well... flattened out a bit in the stretch, but I can see him turning into a nice horse this summer.

That was a good call by Justin on him...