Street Sense finally will get his chance to silence doubter

[brianwspencer]

I did take note the other day while thinking, that while I don't discount the concept of rail trips contributing to Sense's great success, let's not overlook the track angle.

Let's toss his debut as we are willing to toss most horse's debuts with excuses.

That leaves us with one loss on a sloppy mess at Arlington, two losses on Polytrack (including one in one of the most strangely run races in recent memory), and no losses on a fast dirt track.

Perhaps it's a combination of both? I get that he has had great trips and really in no way mean to throw that aside, but outside of his game maiden race, he has never lost on a fast track.

Could it be that the footing affects him equally? Just tossing it out there.

[JJP]

I thought Street Sense ran a great race last fall over the Poly at Keeneland. The pace was fast; he made a huge, very wide sustained run into the pace; while Great Hunter and Circular Quay had the ideal pace set ups. Factoring the ground loss and being much closer to the fast pace, IMO there's no doubt he was the superior horse that day, which he verified in winning the Breeders Cup in his next start.

But now, he has found himself with 3 ideal trips in his last 4 races. Fast paces to close into, and ground saving rides. Horses coming off good trips invariably end up overbet in their next start. Not that he can't win, but at 6-5 (or maybe even 4-5), the risk/reward isn't worth it.

BTW, if you're Larry Jones, don't you look to run a NW1X or NW2X type 3YO in there, with the sole purpose of staying on the rail in front of Street Sense, forcing him to go at least 2, and preferably 3-4 wide on the far turn?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by JJP

I thought Street Sense ran a great race last fall over the Poly at Keeneland. The pace was fast; he made a huge, very wide sustained run into the pace; while Great Hunter and Circular Quay had the ideal pace set ups. Factoring the ground loss and being much closer to the fast pace, IMO there's no doubt he was the superior horse that day, which he verified in winning the Breeders Cup in his next start.

Watch Circular Quay on the keeneland futurity race view, and head-on view in that race. He is going to make a run, and when he is about to swing outside he is completely trapped into the turn, slams out against the horse who trapped him inside several times throughout the turn, finally breaks out of that and still gets 2nd. Much the best in that race.

Street Sense had to go wide and he is a much better dirt horse than polytrack so it was a good effort for him as well.


There is also a nice overhead shot of CQ getting trapped on one of the old wire-to-wire videos or else in a preview to the risen star.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Watch Circular Quay on the keeneland futurity race view, and head-on view in that race. He is going to make a run, and when he is about to swing outside he is completely trapped into the turn, slams out against the horse who trapped him inside several times throughout the turn, finally breaks out of that and still gets 2nd. Much the best in that race.

He bumps once (or twice) with the horse to his outside on the turn NEVER losing stride. He's not trapped. He never breaks stride. He's just typically sucking along waiting for the others to run so that he picks up the pieces.
What I particularly enjoyed was his stretch run, where he's clunking along and the jock hits him lefty and he drifts out and then the jock switches the whip and he drifts in. He was Full of Run, to say the least. Was he drunk?

[Bobby Fischer]

On the head-on view from calracing:
time - amateur analysis
1:05 - horses enter the far turn
1:08 - circular quay starts outside (on rail blue orange - looks purple)
1:11 - CQ trapped inside of Birdbirdistheword (yellow on side of CQ)
1:18 - CQ still trapped horses brush
1:20 - trapped Johnny V. Slams CQ into Birdbirdistheword while yelling expletives
1:21 - CQ swings out to try to bump again but Bird is finally moving
1:35 - Velasquez cuts off birdistheturd
1:50- CQ appears to pass poorHunter after the wire

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Could it be that the footing affects him equally? Just tossing it out there.

The few people I know who bet him in the BC Juvie, bet him solely off the basis of his polytrack race---where he was wide, and made a spectacular move, before hanging late.

I agree though---while I say he's never run a good figure when he hasn't had a dream trip....those races include early season 2yo sprints, or races run over either off-tracks or artifical dirt.

He very well might be capable of running an impressive figure without his trip--but, the visual aspect is what makes me lean to think he won't.

Even in the Derby, when he had that easy trip....he still did everything wrong in the very late stages of that race.

[blackthroatedwind]

DrugS, instead of all this inane posting, could you please repost that picture of you and your mom with the horsey.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No.

It's too bad I have to get going in a little bit here---I really want to start a thread or six about that 4 furlong 2yo maiden winner at Golden Gate today!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Was it one of your horses? And what did it pay?

It paid $7.40

It was the most expensive yearling ever sold by Gibson County. The 4/5 favorite worked a soft 23 flat at OBS FEB.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Nice. I hope you had it.

He missed it.....he was getting a manicure.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The few people I know who bet him in the BC Juvie, bet him solely off the basis of his polytrack race---where he was wide, and made a spectacular move, before hanging late.

I agree though---while I say he's never run a good figure when he hasn't had a dream trip....those races include early season 2yo sprints, or races run over either off-tracks or artifical dirt.

He very well might be capable of running an impressive figure without his trip--but, the visual aspect is what makes me lean to think he won't.

Even in the Derby, when he had that easy trip....he still did everything wrong in the very late stages of that race.

Like I said, I don't mean to discount all of the theories about his needing the trip etc, and I too cashed a sweet double with Anna and Sense on BC Day based on how I loved his Keeneland race and thought he was the best that day.

I only intend to add another potential X Factor to the debate, that maybe while everyone is talking about his trip sealing the deal, we're all overlooking that he's never run a "poor" race over a fast conventional dirt surface. So many are just so quick to talk about the trip without adding in any other factors, this one has been sorely overlooked in Derby analysis. Sure the trip contributed, but is there another potential cause that many are willing to toss or not even acknowledge in the quest to discredit the Derby champion?