Betting The Preakness

[justindew]

Philcski,

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

Final point: Saying I don't like Hard Spun and Curlin has more to do with my historical observation, and less to do with their talent level. My thoughts on the others are more based on basic handicapping.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

Philcski,

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

Final point: Saying I don't like Hard Spun and Curlin has more to do with my historical observation, and less to do with their talent level. My thoughts on the others are more based on basic handicapping.

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something?

Retire him. He's done enough.

[NTamm1215]

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

I agree...I suppose I should expand on what I said by adding that if a person felt like Curlin needed more experience heading into the Derby and was unlikely to win because of a lack of seasoning, hasn't that been rectified in a way.

Curlin ran a much different race in the Derby than he ever has before, he faced more adversity and was taken completely out of his game. In a sense he reminds me of a more talented Brother Derek, a handy winner over average fields who got a rough, wide trip in the Derby before closing late. However, I think Curlin is going to be the 3rd choice and I'm not really convinced Hard Spun is any better than him.

As far as talk of going 1 or 2 deep in the multi-race exotics, Curlin will be the first horse, if there are any at all, I use to help Street Sense.

NT

[SentToStud]

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

2) SS over HS or Curlin will pay around $12-18. Certainly better than nothing. In fact, if SS is 6/5 (which I agree is the likely price) and you simply bet exactas to HS and Curlin at the $15 willpay, you're getting 15/4 on your money instead. I don't need to tell you that's better than 6/5.
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by philcski

2) SS over HS or Curlin will pay around $12-18. Certainly better than nothing. In fact, if SS is 6/5 (which I agree is the likely price) and you simply bet exactas to HS and Curlin at the $15 willpay, you're getting 11/2 on your money instead. I don't need to tell you that's better than 6/5.
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

Isn't that 15/4? 3.75/1, which is better than 6/5 but far less than 11/2.
I don't see 11/2.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Isn't that 15/4? 3.75/1, which is better than 6/5 but far less than 11/2.
I don't see 11/2.

Yes. I have no idea where I came up with 11/2. 15/4 is correct and amended...

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

Can't you assign it to an intern or assistant?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

I think you're missing my point.
If this was the 2nd at Aqueduct and these were 20k claimers named A, B, and C, and you didn't like any of the longshot new shooters, given your opinion that A will win and B or C will likely finish 2nd, would you bet it A over B and C with exactas at $12 and $18 instead of a win bet at 6/5? I would certainly hope so. That is extracting maximum value out of your opinion.

[justindew]

If it was not the Preakness, I would probably pass the race.

That being said, I think Street Sense might actually offer slight value at 6-5.

[blackthroatedwind]

Out of curiosity, since you keep bringing him up, do you remember Prince of Thieves and the kind of racehorse he was?

Honestly, nobody in control of their senses gave him a shot in the world in the Preakness.

[Charismatic1]

Originally Posted by justindew

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

Horses that closed well in the Derby without winning like Victory Gallop and Menifee and Afleet Alex don't bug me with their ability or inability to duplicate a good effort in the Preakness. I usually think they will. However, a misguided approach to closers in the Preakness is that a "smaller field + adequate pace = less traffic = he'll be able to make the clean run he couldn't make in the Derby". My belief is that if he couldn't close the deal in the Derby scenario, he won't be able to in the Preakness. My only * is in the case of a mistimed ride in the Derby like Rose on Afleet Alex (Point Given could also fit here). Also, I generally have the opinion that a deep closing Derby winner cannot wheel back and win the Preakness. Perhaps I'm wrong, but at the top of my head I do not believe any of the Triple Crown Wannabes since The Bid used a deep closing style to win BOTH races. At this time, I'm not sure why, but I've seen both explosive Derby closers (Monarchos) and grinding Derby closers (Giacomo) run flat in Baltimore. Oddly, I still like Street Sense's chances on Saturday, but that's probably because his agility and gears remind me a bit of Afleet Alex. Can nostalgia be a new *?

In most years, I would totally agree about Hard Spun. His performance in the Derby would definitely lump him with Lion Heart, Peace Rules, and Congaree in recent years. All ran HUGE races near or on a fast pace and held on real strong. Like Justin said, they were all bet hard in the Preakness and didn't run to their odds. However, I totally disagree with the way those horses were trained in between races. Their trainers would gallop them no further than 10 furlongs on any given day and they would breeze 5 poles in a minute flat the Monday or Tuesday before the Preakness. It doesn't seem like much, but I think it is unnecessary and that doing too much in one area and too little in another actually puts "edge" on the horse - and they proved that. Larry Jones is not breezing Hard Spun at all, and the horse is having really strong gallops of usually 12 furlongs or a little more everyday. John Servis and Tim Ritchey did this a couple years ago, and those performances were just a wee bit good. Also, this method will take edge off Hard Spun, so I think we can expect to see him stalking in the Preakness rather than on the lead (unless he's draws inside). I expect him to run big, but I can always say "I should've known" if he pulls a Peace Rules type race.

So, my theme for this year's Preakness is all about asterisks.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Horses that closed well in the Derby without winning like Victory Gallop and Menifee and Afleet Alex don't bug me with their ability or inability to duplicate a good effort in the Preakness. I usually think they will. However, a misguided approach to closers in the Preakness is that a "smaller field + adequate pace = less traffic = he'll be able to make the clean run he couldn't make in the Derby". My belief is that if he couldn't close the deal in the Derby scenario, he won't be able to in the Preakness. My only * is in the case of a mistimed ride in the Derby like Rose on Afleet Alex (Point Given could also fit here). Also, I generally have the opinion that a deep closing Derby winner cannot wheel back and win the Preakness. Perhaps I'm wrong, but at the top of my head I do not believe any of the Triple Crown Wannabes since The Bid used a deep closing style to win BOTH races. At this time, I'm not sure why, but I've seen both explosive Derby closers (Monarchos) and grinding Derby closers (Giacomo) run flat in Baltimore. Oddly, I still like Street Sense's chances on Saturday, but that's probably because his agility and gears remind me a bit of Afleet Alex. Can nostalgia be a new *?

In most years, I would totally agree about Hard Spun. His performance in the Derby would definitely lump him with Lion Heart, Peace Rules, and Congaree in recent years. All ran HUGE races near or on a fast pace and held on real strong. Like Justin said, they were all bet hard in the Preakness and didn't run to their odds. However, I totally disagree with the way those horses were trained in between races. Their trainers would gallop them no further than 10 furlongs on any given day and they would breeze 5 poles in a minute flat the Monday or Tuesday before the Preakness. It doesn't seem like much, but I think it is unnecessary and that doing too much in one area and too little in another actually puts "edge" on the horse - and they proved that. Larry Jones is not breezing Hard Spun at all, and the horse is having really strong gallops of usually 12 furlongs or a little more everyday. John Servis and Tim Ritchey did this a couple years ago, and those performances were just a wee bit good. Also, this method will take edge off Hard Spun, so I think we can expect to see him stalking in the Preakness rather than on the lead (unless he's draws inside). I expect him to run big, but I can always say "I should've known" if he pulls a Peace Rules type race.

So, my theme for this year's Preakness is all about asterisks.

Good analysis, I agree with your general comments. I didn't know what training method Larry Jones was using to prep Hard Spun for the Preakness, but the approach you've outlined, with the long gallops makes sense to me. If Street Sense doesn't get his usual rail run, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Hard Spun take it.