Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

Horses bounce off of every type of figure, Beyer, TG, Ragozin, whatever.

I'm not eliminating the possibility that they run huge races back-to-back. But considering Nafzger's Derby-or-bust strategy and considering how strenous Hard Spun's race in the Derby looked TO ME, I think they both are vulnerable to regression and hence, why I don't like them in the Preakness.

Hope that you didn't cringe reading that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

bouncing is just a word..it has no real meaning..a missed step; bad break,lost shoe..thats a real reason.or a tired /sore horse..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

Shouldn't this be easy to figure out? If they get good trips and come up empty, then I guess that would be the case.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Do you really think Street Sense has little foundation?

It's not about foundation for me, but rather that he was trained to shoot his best shot in the Derby. That's not to say that he won't run another big one in the Preakness, but like I said, with that and other factors in mind, I'm not crazy about betting him at odds-on.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I see your point and it's a fair one since Nafzger has always said he was pointing to the Derby. Trust me, there were two times to bet Street Sense, BC Juvy and the Derby. I did, so of course I am going to defend him. Will I bet him Saturday, nope. Not at that price, but I also think he's the best horse and I hope he wins so I can see a chance at a TC at Belmont.

I'm with you on that front. The last two years, Belmont Day (in terms of racing) has been pretty boring.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I don't know if I've ever had a better time at the track, while losing as I did for Funny Cide's Belmont.

I stayed home that day because of the torrential rain, but I was at the '04 Belmont and it was a blast, even with the Smarty loss.

The last two years have been fun, but there just wasn't that suspense in the air.

[Danzig]

but when IS the last time street sense ran a bad race? pre-juvy i would think.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but when IS the last time street sense ran a bad race? pre-juvy i would think.

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

your just haten...lol..you dont like anyone then you like some ..but not really...huh..you have the blazing saddles frontier double speak down..sence could have won the blugrass is was clear to me borel and nafzger didnt want to go for it ..in the str he was taken up and coasted out.. in the derby he rolled .. he does the same vs these ..imo

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

I would characterize the effort breaking the track record at Tampa Bay off a 100+ day layoff as a rather great race..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

i'm not throwing out his bluegrass, i didn't think losing a head bob was a difference between good and bad.

i don't think the horse is used up, set up for a bounce, etc. he's run three times all year. a record setter in tampa, lost a weird bluegrass, and then won his 'easiest' race this year in kentucky. interesting the one race that many think street sense may have reached his bottom in is the one that he won by the largest margin this year--of course three starts isn't much to go on, but it is still just three starts this year. nafzger got him up for the derby, now he has to keep a horse who has run three times in six months up for a bit-how hard is it really to keep a horse who is in good shape, who has a few inches standing between himself and a four-race win streak, in that shape for a few weeks? i'm not being facetious with that question, i'm serious!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I can't get pass the first three Derby finishers..."slam" the tri and "key" those three in pick 3's & 4's every which way.