Another easy work for Curlin

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Is SS gonna get the Moses trip again?

He just needs to settle just behind the pacesetters and get a clear run.

Shouldn't be too hard to do.

[cmorioles]

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

What you say is true, but if I was going that deep to figure out who I would or would not bet, I'd find another race. Being up close is probably not a good idea in my opinion, but I guess we'll see on Saturday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

What happened to "doing the work?"
Please tell us all the exact number of minutes we should all spend handicapping each race, and what exactly we should look at and what we shouldn't. Apparently you are the only one that knows this information.

I think CJ was just saying better value can be found elsewhere...and I think he's right.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think CJ was just saying better value can be found elsewhere...and I think he's right.

My reaction to his post in this thread had more to do with something he posted in a different thread that I took as a slight. Perhaps he didn't mean it that way. Oh well, let's move on.
I don't want to hijack TWO threads just because apparently I am unusually irritable today.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by miraja2

My reaction to his post in this thread had more to do with something he posted in a different thread that I took as a slight. Perhaps he didn't mean it that way. Oh well, let's move on.
I don't want to hijack TWO threads just because apparently I am unusually irritable today.

I repsonded in the other thread, I didn't mean any ill will.

As for your sig, I'll take the Silver Charm/Free House/Captain Bodgit race, mostly because I was there.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Miraja, I think you are a bit off here.

Wouldn't be the first time!!

[tycharles01]

A bad trip for SS is someone blocking the rail.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

I don't see why anyone has to get a 'rough trip'. HS will probably not get the lead and will have to come from just off the pace. (Is this a rough trip for him? or maybe we could arrange for some DEAD speed types to 'chase' him -- no such luck this time.)

Curlin will sit a bit behind that one and SS will be towards the rear of the pack. HS and Curlin will go at it initially and then SS will put in his run. Of course, with Chelokee in the race (unless he's not going), SS will not have a clear rail run throughout the race. Would that make it a poor trip for him?

All I ask for is to get a clear run, after having good position around the track. I'm assuming Albarado can do that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't see why anyone has to get a 'rough trip'. HS will probably not get the lead and will have to come from just off the pace. (Is this a rough trip for him? or maybe we could arrange for some DEAD speed types to 'chase' him -- no such luck this time.)

Curlin will sit a bit behind that one and SS will be towards the rear of the pack. HS and Curlin will go at it initially and then SS will put in his run. Of course, with Chelokee in the race (unless he's not going), SS will not have a clear rail run throughout the race. Would that make it a poor trip for him?

All I ask for is to get a clear run, after having good position around the track. I'm assuming Albarado can do that.

Chelokee is unlikely to go in the Preakness.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18644477/

[herkhorse]

[quote=the_fat_man]It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Just how did HS have things his own way? He set honest fractions, and held on for a game 2nd, while all the other horses that tried to go with him backed up the track.

[10 pnt move up]

[quote=herkhorse]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Just how did HS have things his own way? He set honest fractions, and held on for a game 2nd, while all the other horses that tried to go with him backed up the track.

yea, he ran quick, but a talented front runner left alone on the lead, well the faster they go the better in my book...there is a large gap IMO in pressured pace and fast pace, to me Hard Spun set a fast pace.....you want to see a pressured pace, and it was fast as well, watch Holy Bull in the Travers in 94', he still won.

[herkhorse]

[quote=10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

yea, he ran quick, but a talented front runner left alone on the lead, well the faster they go the better in my book...there is a large gap IMO in pressured pace and fast pace, to me Hard Spun set a fast pace.....you want to see a pressured pace, and it was fast as well, watch Holy Bull in the Travers in 94', he still won.

I certainly wasn't comparing HS to Holy Bull, but the trip he got in the derby was totally earned and not because of "things going his way".

[outofthebox]

Drugs, i am in the opinion that a horse who ran in the Derby really is in no need of a breeze between the Derby and the Preakness. I may be in the minority, but if a horse is breezed at all, let it be on the slow side rather than fast.
On the handicapping aspect of the race, i will wait untill posts are drawn, and see if the track will be fast for the race. I love betting against horses who i feel benefited from great trips to easy victories. As a racing fan i wouldn't be dissapointed if SS were to win. But if i do decide to be involved in betting the race i can assure you that i would be betting against SS. I can/t say iv'e made a living off betting against impressive Derby winners, but i have had a lot of luck betting on horses who i thought were compromised in the Derby from showing their true talent.
I am always looking for the next Louise Qutorze, or Gate Dancer, Hansel, or even throwing out a bad trip like Point Given got in the Derby to making a nice score in the Preakness. I wasn't totally sold on Curlin before the Derby, not because of his number of starts, but his lack of experience in facing adversity in a race. I think he now has that experience. I will now wait for the draw of the race, get a feel of how the race may shape up, and if the odds favor a nice bet on Curlin, i will not shy away from making a wager on him based on a slow breeze between the two races...

[outofthebox]

Congrats on your pick Drugs. I didnt bet to win but played the Million p/4.

[pointman]

Congrats Drugs, your analysis was right one. What a great race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Congrats on your pick Drugs. I didnt bet to win but played the Million p/4.

Thanks---the race didn't exactly go how I wanted it to early on.

I thought Hard Spun was in a little trouble because the pace was very fast, and he was denied his preferred front-running tactics---meanwhile Curlin didn't have as much seperation on Street Sense as I wanted.

I was hoping Curlin could get four or five lengths seperation---and Street Sense would make that monster far turn move to get on ever terms--and obviously Curlin would win the stretch duel.

Street Sense really ran a spectacular race---and I never was certain Curlin could re-rally to catch him until the last jump.

Let's be fair though--as fabulous as SS ran this time out--he did hang through the lane.