Another easy work for Curlin

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

I see math wasn't one of your stronger subjects.

Nothing like a horseplayer with an initially bad opinion allowing it to spiral into a plethora of even worse opinions. Seriously, you will find yourself with more time, and more money, if you would just admit you were wrong about Street Sense and try to focus on actually making money at the racetrack.

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong ( while also pretending he objectively analyzes races ).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong.

Please tell me all I have been wrong about.....

Or are you just playing the role of the warm-up act for ARyan again?

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please tell me all I have been wrong about.....

Or are you just playing the role of the warm-up act for ARyan again?

It is obvious that a few people on here do not value your opinion based on your continued stubborn aversion to admit when you were just wrong in your handicapping. Nobody, certainly not myself or anyone on this board, is 100% correct on every opinion on a horse or race. You are no different.

After Saturday, it will be very interesting to see what excuses you will come up with for why all the hypotheses you played out for everyone to read didn't pan out in reality.

At least you have some practice at doing so...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

At least you have some practice at doing so...

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give you that he is being very stubborn about this issue, I have no idea why. But I will say I have read DrugS ramblings for awhile now and he is about as sharp as I have seen. He's like a horse racing Rainman. Now, if he were a bit better looking he might be perfect, but hey, who is?

I didn't say he wasn't sharp, just that when he is wrong, just say, "Hey, I missed that one." Not make up trip excuses or not give a horse/jock/trainer some credit.

That was my point, not that he is a dullard when it comes to horse racing or handicapping.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I will give you that he is being very stubborn about this issue, I have no idea why.

We will learn more on Saturday.

If Street Sense wins--or gets beat a very short margin by a perfect trip aided Hard Spun or Curlin--without SS getting another perfect rail trip....I will have no trouble saying "I'm totally wrong about him....he's unarguably the best 3yo colt around."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Everyone knows how pretty I am already.....

In my opinion, Hard Spun did get to take advantage of using his preferred front-running tactics, and he also had the advantage of racing over the slightly favorable inside path.

However, Hard Spun earned BOTH the clear early lead, and rail position, because he ran very fast early to achieve both.

Everyone knew the pace would be to Street Sense's benefit going in, and the same should apply to the Preakness.

However Street Sense did not earn his trip. IMO, it was a combination of what will be remembered as a historically great ride, combined with the misjudgement of a few other jockeys (Zanjero's especially) that allowed him to pass 16 horses without leaving the rail.

Now, deep closers are ALMOST NEVER supposed to get trips like that--and Street Sense has three of them in his last four races. Why? IMO, because he has a jocked who's both commited to riding the rail and skilled at it. And also importantly...Street Sense has an uncommonly good turn-of-foot (by far his best asset) that allows him to take advantage of an opening, before it has time to close on him.

Just like in the Derby---I believe he can win the Preakness if he gets his trip, if he doesn't get his trip, I think he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....and I REALLY don't think he'll get his trip this time...though, I said the same going into the Derby.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Everyone knows how pretty I am already.....

In my opinion, Hard Spun did get to take advantage of using his preferred front-running tactics, and he also had the advantage of racing over the slightly favorable inside path.

However, Hard Spun earned BOTH the clear early lead, and rail position, because he ran very fast early to achieve both.

Everyone knew the pace would be to Street Sense's benefit going in, and the same should apply to the Preakness.

However Street Sense did not earn his trip. IMO, it was a combination of what will be remembered as a historically great ride, combined with the misjudgement of a few other jockeys (Zanjero's especially) that allowed him to pass 16 horses without leaving the rail.

Now, deep closers are ALMOST NEVER supposed to get trips like that--and Street Sense has three of them in his last four races. Why? IMO, because he has a jocked who's both commited to riding the rail and skilled at it. And also importantly...Street Sense has an uncommonly good turn-of-foot (by far his best asset) that allows him to take advantage of an opening, before it has time to close on him.

Just like in the Derby---I believe he can win the Preakness if he gets his trip, if he doesn't get his trip, I think he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....and I REALLY don't think he'll get his trip this time...though, I said the same going into the Derby.

I actually agree with this, but with that said Street Sense goes three wide both turns and runs off again I wont be floored either, lets face it he gassed the two strongest fields he has faced.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There's almost no way he runs worse than 3rd....the only way I can see that happen is if Borel gets him stopped cold right in the middle of that one big run he has, while trying to be sneak through.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah, I agree with most of it as well. The only way I would be shocked is if he was up the track. But I hope if he does run second or 3rd we don't see a thread or two about how overrated he is, or how he didn't have a perfect set up, because it would be wrong. Like you said, he has won the 2 biggest races for his generation so far and done it impressively.

I feel that so far he is clearly the leader of his generation. But his real impressive victories came with these rail skimming trips, that are in my opinion somewhat odd, and flattering.

I agree with DrugS in the sense that I would have more confidence in Street Sense if he would have on his resume a sparkling performance when having to race around the outside, a path which he is destined to take at some point. Perhaps on Saturday.