Only one new shooter has a prayer in the Preakness....

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

And his trainer is on the fence between a start in the Preakness, or a start in the Barbaro stakes on the undercard.

Chelokee looks like an improving horse at least. Had he run in the Kentucky Derby, he'd have been the only starter in the race to fit the following pattern.


Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: Only Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

2007: No Derby starter fit the profile. Combined record of 7-4-2-0

More than having a cooky trend in his corner, Chelokee has improved with each start this year, and an arguement could be made that he'd have been right there in the Fla Derby, had he not been shut off.

However, a horse likely to improve or not, the Florida Derby form looks worse after Saturday, and this horse needs marked improvement to contend with the top three. Being trained by Matz, he'll also likely suck up some sentimental money as well.

A new shooter has finished either first or second in 6 of the 7 runnings of the Preakness this decade....I would be shocked if anyone other than Chelokee manages to do so this year...and I highly doubt he will do so either.

How about this DrugS...

I 100% agree with what you said.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

How about this DrugS...

I 100% agree with what you said.

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

What do you think I am doing?

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps I should reevalute what I said I guess.....

Honestly, I think that whole post is well thought out, well backed up, and right on the money.

I couldn't have even said it 50% as well.

[Danzig]

as drugs said, you have to wonder about chelokee after seeing how scat daddy ran in the derby. of course there is every possibility that the distance was just too much for daddy--but certainly there is a question mark or two there.
if chelokee is doing well, what the heck-run him in the preakness. i don't think street sense is unbeatable--he's at 50% lifetime...why not take the shot?

[miraja2]

DrugS makes some good points, and this colt's sire (although best known as a sprinter) turned in a nice performance in the '93 Preakness.....but come on DrugS....please bring back Brian Billick!!!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Spiro T. Agnew is here to stay.

Not only, like Billick, does he honor CJ and his home city of Baltimore....but, compared to our current VP, he is a man of incredible honesty and integrity.

Plus he's greek....and really---the Baltimore-Greek connection cinched it up.

[the_fat_man]

PROFESSIONAL suckup horses always have a chance to win.

Good luck with this one.

We're blessed this year with a 3 year old SUCKUP TROIKA

Chelokee
Bold Start
Cowtown Cat

Sucking up in a race near you.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Danzig

as drugs said, you have to wonder about chelokee after seeing how scat daddy ran in the derby. of course there is every possibility that the distance was just too much for daddy--but certainly there is a question mark or two there.
if chelokee is doing well, what the heck-run him in the preakness. i don't think street sense is unbeatable--he's at 50% lifetime...why not take the shot?

and this year's Preakness is not being run at Churchill Downs last I checked.

I am not so sure Flying First Class doesn't have a shot. He seems to be coming around pretty nicely.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Flying First Class is probably just a sprinter.

If you look at his form---in his two tries around one-turn, racing at a sprint distance...he had that sensation 107 Beyer (albeit inside-speed bias aided) maiden win. And the dominant front-end win in the Derby Trial Stakes last time out.

In his three attempts around two-turns and routing....he ran like he was hit in the head by the 1/8th pole all three times.

A lot of people thought Bernardini (having never raced around two-turns in his life) was not ready for last year's Preakness---but, he was going to be the 4th choice in the betting, and the "favorite" of all of the newcomers...which is why it was too tempting for his connections to pass.