Met Mile field?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I love when horses get lucky trips and people say "they made the trip."

It warms my heart.

When you pass 16 horses without leaving the rail, on a slightly rail-favoring track, you can't rationally say the horse gets sole credit for "making the trip."

Of course Street Sense gets some credit for accelerating fast enough to get through before holes got to close on him....

He's already proven what he's capable of (fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history) when he gets that trip.

This is what I'm talking about!!! Bad, mediocre, and most good horses cannot switch gears fast enough to take advantage of said positions, thereby "creating" a good trip. The first thing I do after the Derby is determine how legitimate the winner will be in the Preakness, and I cannot make an argument for anyone in the race besides Hard Spun, regardless of what you think the trip was. The only knock I have against Street Sense is whether his obvious love for Churchill translates to Pimlico. Incidentally, I'd love to book all the bets on Curlin in the Preakness who supposedly had a rough trip in the Derby.

Saturday was rail favoring? I must have been watching a different track.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

My points exactly.

[philcski]

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

Wow. Thanks for the info Philcski. I am suprised you had the Westchester that fast, but some good info to use going into the Met Mile.

[blackthroatedwind]

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

I agree, and here is a follow up question to what you are saying;

IF Street Sense does pull off a TC, will it be diminished because this crop is being labeled as less then steller?

Just curious...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ARyan

I agree, and here is a follow up question to what you are saying;

IF Street Sense does pull off a TC, will it be diminished because this crop is being labeled as less then steller?

Just curious...

Yes and no. It would also depend on how he accomplishes it.

Seattle Slew probably beat worse, or relatively similar horses, and wasn't criticized. Of course, he overcame Jean Cruget, which was an insane accomplishment in its own right.

Considering how elusive the TC has proved recently I am hesitant to knock anyone that does it now.....though I am relieved Smarty Jones didn't get it done.

But, maybe I'm just biased again, as I do really like Street Sense.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

I'm glad you like him....and I'm not so sure the fact you've made money on him in the past doesn't have something to do with you liking him....as I've been very defensive in favor of horses who've done the same for me.

I can also be very wrong about this horse---as I'm basing my opinion of how he will run while wide and without a setup, on evidence that isn't nearly as solid as I'd like for it to be.

Liking a horse is one thing...and disliking a horse is one thing...but I take pride in making what I believe to be fair judgements when I analyze a race.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm glad you like him....and I'm not so sure the fact you've made money on him in the past doesn't have something to do with you liking him....as I've been very defensive in favor of horses who've done the same for me.

I can also be very wrong about this horse---as I'm basing my opinion of how he will run while wide and without a setup, on evidence that isn't nearly as solid as I'd like for it to be.

Liking a horse is one thing...and disliking a horse is one thing...but I take pride in making what I believe to be fair judgements when I analyze a race.

From you, that is laughable from the evidence I can gather.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ok....I like all the races you skipped. Did you know, that of the nine dirt races on the card, the biggest priced winner paid $8.20...and Street Sense was not only one of three horses to win while racing inside...but he was also won of three horses to win..who wasn't the post time favorite.

Race #1- 6/5 favorite breaking from post #1 wins. 3/1 2nd choice breaking from posts #3 makes the lead and finishes 2nd.

Race #2- 9/5 shot winner broke from post #1 and raced on the rail throughout.

Race #3- 6/5 favorite wins easily after making a sweeping 3-wide move. So far, three races...three favorites.

Race #4- 8/5 favorite gets loose on the lead, and goes wire-to-wire winning by 12+ lengths. 4 races 4 winning favorites.

Race #5- TURF

Race #6- 4/5 favorite wins with sweeping three wide turn move. 5 dirt races, 5 winning favorites....a few near the inside a few wide.

Race #7- 3/1 shot goes wire-to-wire. First non-favorite to win all day pays a whopping $8.20

Race #8- 3/1 winner (pays $8.00) breaking from post 2, splits horses, and wins with closing tactics.

Race #9- Turf

Race #10- Even money favorite wins with stalking tactics. 3-to-4 wide.

Race #11- Turf

Race #12- Tampa Derby, 6/5 shot Street Sense, one of the few post time favorites who doesn't win all day, wins saving ground all the way. He wins off the layoff, over the very demanding tampa surface...AGS had a prep over it, which is why he was 3/5.

Race #13- Turf

You had nine races....and the biggest winner all day long paid $8.20! Horses won from the inside, the outside, they won stalking, closing, a couple went wire-to-wire.

Was there a HUGE HUGE HUGE bias....or was it just a case of the best horses winning?