Met Mile field?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You deny that Street Sense had a perfect setup/trip?

In this case, what does it matter? He MADE the trip. Most horses would have quit or checked rather than move through the cracks he did.

I challenge you to reorder the Derby field based on if so-and-so had gotten a better trip. If I hear Curlin had a bad trip once again I'll puke. It didn't matter, he wasn't finishing in the exacta either way.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I love when horses get lucky trips and people say "they made the trip."

It warms my heart.

When you pass 16 horses without leaving the rail, on a slightly rail-favoring track, you can't rationally say the horse gets sole credit for "making the trip."

Of course Street Sense gets some credit for accelerating fast enough to get through before holes got to close on him....

He's already proven what he's capable of (fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history) when he gets that trip.

[blackthroatedwind]

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I love when horses get lucky trips and people say "they made the trip."

It warms my heart.

When you pass 16 horses without leaving the rail, on a slightly rail-favoring track, you can't rationally say the horse gets sole credit for "making the trip."

Of course Street Sense gets some credit for accelerating fast enough to get through before holes got to close on him....

He's already proven what he's capable of (fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history) when he gets that trip.

This is what I'm talking about!!! Bad, mediocre, and most good horses cannot switch gears fast enough to take advantage of said positions, thereby "creating" a good trip. The first thing I do after the Derby is determine how legitimate the winner will be in the Preakness, and I cannot make an argument for anyone in the race besides Hard Spun, regardless of what you think the trip was. The only knock I have against Street Sense is whether his obvious love for Churchill translates to Pimlico. Incidentally, I'd love to book all the bets on Curlin in the Preakness who supposedly had a rough trip in the Derby.

Saturday was rail favoring? I must have been watching a different track.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

My points exactly.

[philcski]

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just as aside, as this is the Met Mile thread, I got a huge figure for the Westchester (what equates to a 114 Beyer), and this is even doing something I don't normally do- breaking out the route races as they were exceptionally fast all day. Once this was done, the other two mile races fell perfectly in line with the runners' capabilities and the Westchester remained fast.
Basically the figure indicated Sun King ran back to the '06 Met Mile, and Utopia was just better. Take it for what it's worth. I'm crossing my fingers it's a good number more for the sake of Sun King than my own wallet.

Wow. Thanks for the info Philcski. I am suprised you had the Westchester that fast, but some good info to use going into the Met Mile.

[blackthroatedwind]

I hear ya, and understand what you are saying, but what's interesting is that in a way you seem to be jacked up to point out truths about Street Sense in case he is being ridiculously praised like recent relatively undeserving TC race winners. He's pretty much not being overhyped. Nobody seems to be declaring him the next superhorse. He's a good horse, who ran well in a race where his trip worked out for him, and now has to prove he can duplicate his best races on a track other than Churchill Downs. However, it's not as though his races at other tracks are clunkers.

Aside from the fact that I have liked Street Sense for a long time it is nice to see him praised sanely and rationally. Perhaps after the disappointments of recent years people are holding their irrationality in check. Unfortunately, however, all hell may break loose in ten days.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Please link me to where I said Street Sense was anything less than 1st or 2nd best?

His previous two races, with that exact same trip, were AT LEAST as good as his Derby performance. He won the Juvenile by double digits with a record figure in one---and was perhaps the only 3yo ever to run a triple digit Beyer, off a layoff, going two-turns on the demanding Tampa Downs surface.

EVERYONE knows what kind of horse he is with that trip (an excellent horse) however, from watching films of his races when he did not have that trip, I believe he has bad habits, and will run alarmingly unimpressive, if he has to rally wide without a pace setup.

The fact that he ran better than arguably all but zero or one horse---it has nothing to do with my belief that this horse will have problems when he can't skate inside of horses.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please link me to where I said Street Sense was anything less than 1st or 2nd best?

His previous two races, with that exact same trip, were AT LEAST as good as his Derby performance. He won the Juvenile by double digits with a record figure in one---and was perhaps the only 3yo ever to run a triple digit Beyer, off a layoff, going two-turns on the demanding Tampa Downs surface.

EVERYONE knows what kind of horse he is with that trip (an excellent horse) however, from watching films of his races when he did not have that trip, I believe he has bad habits, and will run alarmingly unimpressive, if he has to rally wide without a pace setup.

The fact that he ran better than arguably all but zero or one horse---it has nothing to do with my belief that this horse will have problems when he can't skate inside of horses.

I do not think SS had a great trip in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rail was DEAD DEAD DEAD all day, and he dug in and held off a game AGS. The Bluegrass didn't seem like and ideal trip, and he ran well. We can also see now that they were not going to push the horse to much in that race, as it was just a extended workout for the Derby for him.

Furthermore, SS did not have ideal trips in his two races (at Arlington and Keeneland) before the BC Juv. He was still running gamely in those races, losing by less then 2 lengths in both of those races.

I do not think you have backed up any of your comments with any original insightful, well thought out material, just biased opinion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ARyan

I do not think you have backed up any of your comments with any original insightful, well thought out material, just biased opinion.

Another poster just did a job of wrongfully painting me as someone who views these things in a biased manner. If you believe that, you're wrong.

Please do me a favor, and back up your comment that the rail was dead on Tampa Derby day with the same "original insightful, well thought out material" that I failed to produce.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please do me a favor, and back up your comment that the rail was dead on Tampa Derby day with the same "original insightful, well thought out material" that I failed to produce.

I just got back from my excersize and am bummed out.....

I give you a lot of credit for ducking me on that.....

Even Zhuge Liang would have had an almost impossible time convincing anyone that the rail was dead that day---let along "DEAD DEAD DEAD."

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The bottom line, and this is really tiresome, is that only one horse in the Derby ran arguably as well as Street Sense and that's obviously Hard Spun. Good trip or not, nobody was even close, and Street Sense was, under no circumstances, worse than second best. In the BC Juvenile, where obviously he had a great trip, he won by ten lengths and was clearly the best horse regardless.

There are many perfect trip winners that can be argued under different circumstances would have not even been close to winning. Street Sense is simply not one of these.

Nobody is denying that Street Sense had a good trip. However, you seem to be the only one in denial that he's clearly at the top of this class ( even if he may have mild company ).

Great post.