Street Sense Derby Beyer: 110

Originally Posted by cmorioles

What was War Emblem's pace? That should give you an idea of the type pace needed to win up front.

47+, if memory serves. I think so, because I recall the Preakness went notably faster in like 45+. I think his derby 3/4 was 1.11 but just guessing. Its an easy look up obviously.

Only one front runner has won w/ a sub 1.10 that is Spend a Buck. There are a few that have won with 1.10+. From my recollection 1.11+ is just about ideal for a front runner.

If this pace was so torrid why did HS finish well? He finished up in 25.4 which is fairly strong for a front runner.

Part my thinking is that DrugS is right about one thing: This is a poor class. I mean, most of them died after going a mile under a pace that was fast-then moderate. Cowtown, Teuf, Liquidity....These horses obviously are not meant for 10f. So I think he's right about the overall crop in general.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by easy goer

47+, if memory serves. I think so, because I recall the Preakness went notably faster in like 45+. I think his derby 3/4 was 1.11 but just guessing. Its an easy look up obviously.

Only one front runner has won w/ a sub 1.10 that is Spend a Buck. There are a few that have won with 1.10+. From my recollection 1.11+ is just about ideal for a front runner.

If this pace was so torrid why did HS finish well? He finished up in 25.4 which is fairly strong for a front runner.

Part my thinking is that DrugS is right about one thing: This is a poor class. I mean, most of them died after going a mile under a pace that was fast-then moderate. Cowtown, Teuf, Liquidity....These horses obviously are not meant for 10f. So I think he's right about the overall crop in general.

Because he's a good horse that's built to go the distance.

If you broke down the fractions of all of the preps, he was the ONLY horse to run a :23 opening quarter AND get the final 3F in less than :38.

[ninetoone]

War Emblem: 47 flat & 1:11 & 3

Originally Posted by philcski

Because he's a good horse that's built to go the distance.

If you broke down the fractions of all of the preps, he was the ONLY horse to run a :23 opening quarter AND get the final 3F in less than :38.

RIght so the questions remains, and may remain unresolvable:

a) Was the pace moderate and the rest of the front runners quite bad; OR

b) THe pace was hot, and HS was a superior horse to survive.

Right? Are those the two choices?

My armchair analysis, having never been around horses and seeing this stuff on tv and crunching numbers like a nerd is.....A.

But Im interested in what YOU think.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Here's war emblems fractions:

23.25, 47.04, 1:11.75, 1:36.70, 2:01.13 [note: unofficial; a cut from the internet]

Hard Spun got the mile in what 1.37 flat? So you can see he's 2 length back of War Emblem here (assuming same surface, trip).

But the difference? War Emblem can flat out close under this pace. WE finished in 24.4 vs HS 25.4. I.e. WE can run as fast as SS from the front end of a moderate pace.

You can argue that this surface was different etc. ANd I wont dispute that you can. We all can till we're blue in the face. But one thing I think can be said, clearly a 1.11.75 pace was just fine for WE; no matter what you think of his fractions, he finished in 24.4 which is obviously extremely good for a front runner.

Therefore, undeniably a 1.11.75 pace was fine for War Emblem.

Good analysis. I'd be lying if I said I have any idea how the track was playing Derby Day '02. I think you're understimating the difference between going 46 1/5 and 47 flat in a mile and a quarter race, however.

Originally Posted by easy goer

RIght so the questions remains, and may remain unresolvable:

a) Was the pace moderate and the rest of the front runners quite bad; OR

b) THe pace was hot, and HS was a superior horse to survive.

Right? Are those the two choices?

My armchair analysis, having never been around horses and seeing this stuff on tv and crunching numbers like a nerd is.....A.

But Im interested in what YOU think.

I vote B. That being said... Street Sense over Hard Spun had been my exacta for 6 weeks, so I was quite happy with the results.

Here's war emblems fractions:

23.25, 47.04, 1:11.75, 1:36.70, 2:01.13 [note: unofficial; a cut from the internet]

Hard Spun got the mile in what 1.37 flat? So you can see he's 2 length back of War Emblem here (assuming same surface, trip).

But the difference? War Emblem can flat out close under this pace. WE finished in 24.4 vs HS 25.4. I.e. WE can run as fast as SS from the front end of a moderate pace.

You can argue that this surface was different etc. ANd I wont dispute that you can. We all can till we're blue in the face. But one thing I think can be said, clearly a 1.11.75 pace was just fine for WE; no matter what you think of his fractions, he finished in 24.4 which is obviously extremely good for a front runner.

Therefore, undeniably a 1.11.75 pace was fine for War Emblem.