The worst pedigree wins the Derby

[Bobby Fischer]

pedigree in order - Running style

SS - late
HS - Early
NOBIZ - early
Liquidity - early
BwanaBull - nonexistant

No one is going to wire the derby this year. A speed horse always takes the lead into the lane and then is passed mid-stretch by the winner. The Speed horse finishes at least 3rd. Toss Liquidity and BwanaBull from all tickets. Nobiz shows that he flattens out, not fast enough. Leaves speed (HardSpun=maybe,curlin-maybe,Stormello-longshot,Scatdaddy-longshot) winner(SS-maybe,Curlin-maybe,CQ-longshot,Tiago-longshot)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

[Danzig]

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

I was talking to Brian about his pedigree last night... seeing Laughter in his 4th generation is kind of interesting.

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

And if a horse that by whoevers method, is supposed to get distance and turns out to be a sprinter, some go back, and find a sprinter somewhere in the line... ahhh yes, there it is, his great grandmother.

The really good tools to analyze this stuff with some degree of certainty are not here yet.

Every advertisment I look at for breeding in the DRF boasts about Grade I winner. Then the foals run poorly and the "new" horse now advertised by the breeder(farm) is one that had progeny that are grade 1 winners. Nothing about how many broke down, % that never even made it to the track, just the success stories. Quite amazing and so inexact. On most of these horses we have no idea what the rest of their foals have done

For those of you who remember Alvin Robertson, a very good basketball player, defensive allstar, apparently often in trouble with the law. His daughter plays on my daughters HS basketball team. Alvin was 6'3", a fantastic athlete. His daughter is 5'5". My daughter is 5'7", taller than my wife and I. Alldistrict as a 10th and 11th grader. Alvins daughter has not made it to the varsity yet. Genetics is a crazy thing.

I have read Dr. Romans site and it is a very noble attempt to put some rigorous statistical data together to try and make sense of a very difficult thing. So climbing on each others pedigree experts seems like a tenuous duty.

I have beat this to death in the past so I will stop. I will go with Somer's breed the best with the best (and I will add hope they have as little genetic background in common as possible) and hope for the best. The trouble is determing the best.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Originally Posted by miraja2

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

[Linny]

Pedigree profiling is too general to apply to the Preakness, specifically. The reason for the discussion before the Derby is that a CD you are asking these colts to do something entirely new, stretch to 10f. Most of the Preakness runners will be exiting the Derby, so they have some sort of indicator of routing ability already.
Profiling for distance capacity is a broad study and not likely to say, colt A is better at 10f, colt B is better at 9 1/2. If a horse can win at 10f in G1 company, he may be expected to also be effective at 9 1/2.
In most cases the "new shooters" in the Preakness have already been 9f, so they are only being asked to move on 1/16, not a huge jump.

Pedigree analysis can lead to to see a certain capacity in a horse, ie. run 10f, handle mud etc. It cannot assure you that the horse is good enough to do it in certain company. Any horse can get 10f if you wait long enough. Cowtown Cat ran 10f last Sat. He just did it in about 2:30. Was it because he wan't bred for it, or just not good enough? For ages everyone talked about dosage and how well it "picked Derby winners." What they never mentioned was the tens of thousands of colts with the right dosage to win the Derby who were toiling in maiden claiming races or unstarted all together. They were bred for 10f but too slow to get there.

[Pedigree Ann]

I usually do work-ups of the Derby contenders' pedigrees before the event - that is how I got the nickname 'Pedigree Ann' on the late lamented Road to the Roses message board. Didn't have time to do it this year because I was busy remodeling my kitchen. (The backsplash is up! All I have to do now is grout it, finish the new switchplates and get them up, and it's done!)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

Okay. Which Preakness starter should we discuss?

[Linny]

SS was Mike's third choice despite having been rated low on his pedigree profile.

HOw in hell could any of this possibly matter when there are three sires that start the entire breed? Maybe if you were talking female families I could see maybe, because there you have like 40 choices but no one seems to put all their stock on female families either.

[Linny]

Mike's profiles focus mostly on the female line.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

HOw in hell could any of this possibly matter when there are three sires that start the entire breed? Maybe if you were talking female families I could see maybe, because there you have like 40 choices but no one seems to put all their stock on female families either.

Those three foundation sires lived a long long time ago...many folks believe that one sire and one dam started the human line and yet genetics are considered important!

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

I won't argue that Stormello was among those most likely to be calling a taxi at the eighth-pole, but Teufelsberg gets a special award for being inbred to the family of Johannesburg, Minardi, Tale of the Cat, Pulpit, none of which could last out the 10f. Then he goes out in 1:16 for the 6f in the Blue Grass and STILL couldn't hold on. Imagine what Hard Spun could have done with a 1:16+?

As to 'crazy guy', his sire Wild Event won a G1 on turf, winning from 8f to 12f, and is already the sire of a Derby winner, Eu Tambem, winner of the 2006/7 Argentine Derby at 2500m (12.5f) on dirt; he is by top sire Wild Again and a half-brother to G1 winners Paradise Creek and Forbidden Apple. Top Account won the King's Bishop at Saratoga when it was G2, placed in the Jerome and NYRA Mile (G1), by Private Account out of G2 winner Up the Flagpole and a half-brother to 3 G1 winners plus 3 other SWs. Crazy Guy's female family isn't fashionable but is solid - lots of runners and winners, with a sprinkling of SWs (Din's Dancer, G1-placed SW of over $1/2 million, e.g.). I wouldn't call this a bad pedigree at all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

As far as which pedigree in the race was the most unattractive commercially, The two Bill Kaplan trained horses were 1-2...with the edge going to the eventual 4th place finisher.

You mention the pace of the Bluegrass---but that was over that phony surface--Street Sense got ran down from behind in that race, by a horse (Dominican) who was very rank through the early stages.

But yeah, the Jamie Sanders horse wasn't exactly stoutly bred, that's for sure