The worst pedigree wins the Derby

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Absolutely indefensible statement! Others have detailed SS's pedigree, before posting something you might research instead of taking the word of some guy I never heard of! By any measure, SS has the pedigree of a Ky Derby winner. Regarding angles...the only one's I look at (zeros in DP and at least 16 pts), he has 22 pts in DP centered in the "C" (Classic) catagory and only one zero. Plenty of stamina...absolutely ridiculous statement!

Some guy you never heard of. LOL, he has more knowledge in his left baby finger than you'll ever know. Look up His family tree. His family was winning races before you where even thought of, unbelievable. LOL

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Some guy you never heard of. LOL, he has more knowledge in his left baby finger than you'll ever know. Look up His family tree. His family was winning races before you where even thought of, unbelievable. LOL

I don't care if this guy is a Veitch. Bad analysis is still bad analysis. Trying to reduce pedigree analysis to a single number is an excercise in futility, whoever tries it. One would think that with all the data so easily available these days - I remember when to get a mare's produce record I had to look up each of the offspring's races and add up for each year - we would want to look at it all before making judgments. But, no, the customers of Roman or Werk or whomever want one number to describe the complicated and sometimes contradictory information in a pedigree. Boggles the mind.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Some guy you never heard of. LOL, he has more knowledge in his left baby finger than you'll ever know. Look up His family tree. His family was winning races before you where even thought of, unbelievable. LOL

So, you are an expert regarding my knowledge of breeding etc? I didn't know I had a biographer! I don't know of the guy or his family...he could be the Pope for all I know...what I do know is that is a ridiculous statement. Again, others have detailed SS's pedigree...he has plenty of stamina in his dam side, seven Reines and the Ribot line in her five generation profile to mention just some! Bedazzle is by Dixieland Band out of the His Majesty (C) mare, Majestic Legend...His Majesty, a Classic CDR of some note is the son of the great sire Ribot (CP)...talk to me about class and stamina! His Majesty is also out of the Reine-de-race Flower Bowl, herself the daughter of reine, Flower Bed.
Other reines in Bedazzle's 5 generation family include Boudoir, Miss Disco, Delta Queen, Evening Mist, and Teresina.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

So, you are an expert regarding my knowledge of breeding etc? I didn't know I had a biographer! I don't know of the guy or his family...he could be the Pope for all I know...what I do know is that is a ridiculous statement. Again, others have detailed SS's pedigree...he has plenty of stamina in his dam side, seven Reines and the Ribot line in her five generation profile to mention just some! Bedazzle is by Dixieland Band out of the His Majesty (C) mare, Majestic Legend...His Majesty, a Classic CDR of some note is the son of the great sire Ribot (CP)...talk to me about class and stamina! His Majesty is also out of the Reine-de-race Flower Bowl, herself the daughter of reine, Flower Bed.
Other reines in Bedazzle's 5 generation family include Boudoir, Miss Disco, Delta Queen, Evening Mist, and Teresina.

oh come now somer, quit displaying your lack of knowledge!


lol, i surely hope you know i'm just kidding you!!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh come now somer, quit displaying your lack of knowledge!


lol, i surely hope you know i'm just kidding you!!

I know Mrs Z, I stopped posting a lot of pedigree stuff a few years ago cause frankly most folks aren't that interested and unless you study the stuff, it makes little sense. Besides, folks can go to Dr Roman's site or read other real experts and get a better explanation than I can give. Back when Brock, Dragon and others were here (actually at ESPN) a lot, we had some good threads but there are always those who just don't want to hear it and I respect that...still, I'm not gonna sit back when someone makes a statement that is simply wrong. I believe that stamina does come primarily from the dam side but Street Sense certainly is not suffering in that regard.

[Danzig]

see, i enjoy pedigrees and going over them. fascinating to me. but yeah, not for everyone.

[miraja2]

The bottom line here is that the original poster is just flat out WRONG.
Street Sense's 10f pedigree is perfectly acceptable, and anyone with half a brain knew that before the race. His sire won the richest 10f race in the WORLD for Christ's sake.
That post is absolutely ridiculous.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

The bottom line here is that the original poster is just flat out WRONG.
Street Sense's 10f pedigree is perfectly acceptable, and anyone with half a brain knew that before the race. His sire won the richest 10f race in the WORLD for Christ's sake.
That post is absolutely ridiculous.

Certainly...I do look closely at dam side so that's a point of discussion but as documented by several folks here, his dam side is well stocked with stamina influences.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I know Mrs Z, I stopped posting a lot of pedigree stuff a few years ago cause frankly most folks aren't that interested and unless you study the stuff, it makes little sense. Besides, folks can go to Dr Roman's site or read other real experts and get a better explanation than I can give. Back when Brock, Dragon and others were here (actually at ESPN) a lot, we had some good threads but there are always those who just don't want to hear it and I respect that...still, I'm not gonna sit back when someone makes a statement that is simply wrong. I believe that stamina does come primarily from the dam side but Street Sense certainly is not suffering in that regard.

ah, the good ole days!!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by brockguy

ah, the good ole days!!

Yeah, I miss a lot of those folks, of course some I don't! Wish I knew what happened to Dragon, even Papa.

[sumitas]

umm, Bedazzled's direct family has no reines de course that i saw. yes, SS is related to Mr Greeley to some degree. but Spectacular Bid's family was often blamed for his lack of success at stud.

[Bobby Fischer]

pedigree in order - Running style

SS - late
HS - Early
NOBIZ - early
Liquidity - early
BwanaBull - nonexistant

No one is going to wire the derby this year. A speed horse always takes the lead into the lane and then is passed mid-stretch by the winner. The Speed horse finishes at least 3rd. Toss Liquidity and BwanaBull from all tickets. Nobiz shows that he flattens out, not fast enough. Leaves speed (HardSpun=maybe,curlin-maybe,Stormello-longshot,Scatdaddy-longshot) winner(SS-maybe,Curlin-maybe,CQ-longshot,Tiago-longshot)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

[Danzig]

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

I was talking to Brian about his pedigree last night... seeing Laughter in his 4th generation is kind of interesting.

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

And if a horse that by whoevers method, is supposed to get distance and turns out to be a sprinter, some go back, and find a sprinter somewhere in the line... ahhh yes, there it is, his great grandmother.

The really good tools to analyze this stuff with some degree of certainty are not here yet.

Every advertisment I look at for breeding in the DRF boasts about Grade I winner. Then the foals run poorly and the "new" horse now advertised by the breeder(farm) is one that had progeny that are grade 1 winners. Nothing about how many broke down, % that never even made it to the track, just the success stories. Quite amazing and so inexact. On most of these horses we have no idea what the rest of their foals have done

For those of you who remember Alvin Robertson, a very good basketball player, defensive allstar, apparently often in trouble with the law. His daughter plays on my daughters HS basketball team. Alvin was 6'3", a fantastic athlete. His daughter is 5'5". My daughter is 5'7", taller than my wife and I. Alldistrict as a 10th and 11th grader. Alvins daughter has not made it to the varsity yet. Genetics is a crazy thing.

I have read Dr. Romans site and it is a very noble attempt to put some rigorous statistical data together to try and make sense of a very difficult thing. So climbing on each others pedigree experts seems like a tenuous duty.

I have beat this to death in the past so I will stop. I will go with Somer's breed the best with the best (and I will add hope they have as little genetic background in common as possible) and hope for the best. The trouble is determing the best.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Originally Posted by miraja2

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

[Linny]

Pedigree profiling is too general to apply to the Preakness, specifically. The reason for the discussion before the Derby is that a CD you are asking these colts to do something entirely new, stretch to 10f. Most of the Preakness runners will be exiting the Derby, so they have some sort of indicator of routing ability already.
Profiling for distance capacity is a broad study and not likely to say, colt A is better at 10f, colt B is better at 9 1/2. If a horse can win at 10f in G1 company, he may be expected to also be effective at 9 1/2.
In most cases the "new shooters" in the Preakness have already been 9f, so they are only being asked to move on 1/16, not a huge jump.

Pedigree analysis can lead to to see a certain capacity in a horse, ie. run 10f, handle mud etc. It cannot assure you that the horse is good enough to do it in certain company. Any horse can get 10f if you wait long enough. Cowtown Cat ran 10f last Sat. He just did it in about 2:30. Was it because he wan't bred for it, or just not good enough? For ages everyone talked about dosage and how well it "picked Derby winners." What they never mentioned was the tens of thousands of colts with the right dosage to win the Derby who were toiling in maiden claiming races or unstarted all together. They were bred for 10f but too slow to get there.

[Pedigree Ann]

I usually do work-ups of the Derby contenders' pedigrees before the event - that is how I got the nickname 'Pedigree Ann' on the late lamented Road to the Roses message board. Didn't have time to do it this year because I was busy remodeling my kitchen. (The backsplash is up! All I have to do now is grout it, finish the new switchplates and get them up, and it's done!)