Another big effort from Hard Spun

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I forgot---I think your pace figure is to the six furlong call in route races? I was thinking half mile.

Maybe they ran a supersonic third quarter in that race....that was when HS tried to make his move.

[cmorioles]

Yep, 6f call. It is tough to compare a mile race to an extended route anyway. I agree now, and did when you posted originally, that his Southwest was much better than it looked.

Do you get my point about looking relaxed while going too fast? The horses to bet back are those that are being pushed hard to go fast, especially while battling with other horses. Those going too fast on open leads without urging are not the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.

I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.

I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.

I look at pedigree when horses are trying something new. I could certainly understand the research as he stretched to two turns, then to 9f, then the Derby.

Now, however, this horse isn't trying anything new. The pedigree research should end when you see what the horse does in real life.

The horse has now run four routes. I give him the following pace/speed figures:

Lecomte: 109/95
Southwest: 97/95 (He did this while way wide, meaning that 97 was probably more like a 105 or so)
Blue Grass: 114/100
Kentucky Derby: 128/102

He is getting bigger pace numbers the farther he goes, which means he is not rating at all, basically runnning the same speed regardless of distance. If I made pace numbers based on actual speed rather than the distance, they would probably all be very similar.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm sure you meant the 114/100 was the Spiral/Lane's End/Jim Beam---as he probably would have had 12 lengths in the Blue Grass going that fast.

I realize he's running fast early/slow late in most of his races---with him, it doesn't bother me though.

[cmorioles]

Yeah, I meant the Beam.

[JJP]

I think Hard Spun will turn the tables at Pimlico. I seriously doubt you'll see a Stormello or Teufelsberg in there (although considering the lunacy in handling Teuf, maybe he will run). 46 flat for the Derby and still around at the finish. Definitely have him as the best horse.

And at some point, Street Sense is not going to have the rail open up like the Red Sea parting. I don't think Borel is going to get that trip in 2 weeks and if he has to circle wide on the far turn to catch Hard Spun, he won't do it.