Another big effort from Hard Spun

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought he was well within himself on the lead.

If you go back and watch the Southwest Stakes--he rated wonderfully (albeit, while hung wide, back off a pathetically slow pace, while on an inside-speed track) that day.

I don't anticipate he'll have as much trouble rating off of Flying First Class as many think.

Hard Spun's mother was 4-for-15 lifetime, her average winning distance was BEYOND 10 furlongs---his father sired a Belmont winner. The distance question was never in doubt....he just couldn't fight off a horse who rated in 19th...and passed 16 horses on their inside by the time he confronted him.

[cmorioles]

You know I'm a numbers guy. Whether he looked relaxed or not, he was going too fast yesterday. Actually, the fact he looked relaxed is even a worse sign. It means he is going too fast all on his own.

I also don't have the Southwest that slow. It was a mile race, and I have it at 99 on the Beyer scale for the pace. That probably equates to a 110 at 1 1/4 miles, since the horses go slower. Given he was four wide, he was going even faster than that to keep up around the turns.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think you might have cut something loose when you did your numbers for the Southwest---a bottom level claimer, at the same distance, earlier on in the card...who had never made the lead in his life...set faster fractions and went wire-to-wire.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I forgot---I think your pace figure is to the six furlong call in route races? I was thinking half mile.

Maybe they ran a supersonic third quarter in that race....that was when HS tried to make his move.

[cmorioles]

Yep, 6f call. It is tough to compare a mile race to an extended route anyway. I agree now, and did when you posted originally, that his Southwest was much better than it looked.

Do you get my point about looking relaxed while going too fast? The horses to bet back are those that are being pushed hard to go fast, especially while battling with other horses. Those going too fast on open leads without urging are not the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.

I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.

I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.

I look at pedigree when horses are trying something new. I could certainly understand the research as he stretched to two turns, then to 9f, then the Derby.

Now, however, this horse isn't trying anything new. The pedigree research should end when you see what the horse does in real life.

The horse has now run four routes. I give him the following pace/speed figures:

Lecomte: 109/95
Southwest: 97/95 (He did this while way wide, meaning that 97 was probably more like a 105 or so)
Blue Grass: 114/100
Kentucky Derby: 128/102

He is getting bigger pace numbers the farther he goes, which means he is not rating at all, basically runnning the same speed regardless of distance. If I made pace numbers based on actual speed rather than the distance, they would probably all be very similar.